⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Tuesday, June 23 2026 at 11:30 PM

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Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L

-$273.75

after $1.00 costs

Realized

-$272.75

33 settled

At risk

$57.96

3 open

ROI

-25.6%

on settled stake

Record

9–24

W–L

Match winner · -10% ROI · CLV -11% (16)Over/Under · -39% ROI · CLV – (10)Both teams to score · -50% ROI · CLV +8% (7)

Match	Bet	Our Prob	Kalshi Prob	Net Edge	Cost	Status	P&L
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Both score	25%	6¢	+14.7%	$16.70	Placed	–
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇶🇦Qatar	21%	13¢	+3.7%	$12.61	Placed	–
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Over 1.5 goals	62%	45¢	+10.9%	$28.65	Placed	–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$74.40	Won	+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	17¢	+4.4%	$28.56	Lost	-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	22%	13¢	+4.9%	$15.86	Lost	-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	30%	18¢	+6.0%	$74.95	Lost	-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	20%	13¢	+3.0%	$17.03	Lost	-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	89%	80¢	+3.2%	$8.00	Won	+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	16%	5¢	+6.8%	$0.10	Lost	-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	75%	46¢	+23.0%	$58.88	Lost	-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	20%	10¢	+5.5%	$15.46	Lost	-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	44%	25¢	+12.6%	$25.04	Lost	-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	18%	10¢	+4.3%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	89%	78¢	+5.3%	$67.08	Won	+18.92
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$39.56	Won	+46.44
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both score	60%	48¢	+6.5%	$32.64	Lost	-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19.84	Lost	-19.84
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 2.5 goals	62%	43¢	+12.9%	$42.45	Lost	-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Both score	19%	10¢	+5.2%	$14.52	Lost	-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	90%	68¢	+15.5%	$38.08	Won	+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 4.5 goals	43%	16¢	+23.4%	$34.24	Lost	-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	86¢	+10.0%	$74.72	Won	+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	🇳🇿New Zealand	26%	16¢	+6.2%	$47.42	Lost	-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Draw	27%	13¢	+10.5%	$26.06	Lost	-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	51%	41¢	+4.1%	$13.12	Lost	-13.12
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Over 3.5 goals	45%	27¢	+11.8%	$18.36	Lost	-18.36
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Both score	33%	21¢	+5.5%	$15.98	Lost	-15.98
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	🇳🇴Norway	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$56.36	Won	+36.64
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	🇯🇴Jordan	27%	14¢	+8.8%	$39.99	Lost	-39.99
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Over 2.5 goals	55%	34¢	+14.8%	$22.78	Won	+44.22
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	Both score	33%	20¢	+6.7%	$26.41	Lost	-26.41
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭Ghana	Over 2.5 goals	55%	35¢	+14.3%	$19.95	Lost	-19.95
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	🇭🇷Croatia	68%	51¢	+11.4%	$29.58	Won	+28.42
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Both score	42%	27¢	+8.9%	$22.53	Lost	-22.53
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Over 2.5 goals	56%	27¢	+23.0%	$29.16	Lost	-29.16

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 21 graded

Accuracy 71% ±19% · always-favorite baseline 48% · Brier 0.497 (base-rate 0.635) · skill +21.7% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 21 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~29 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 23, 10:00 PM

🇨🇴Colombia

1.5 – 0.8projected goals

🇨🇩DR Congo

Colombia 63% · draw 22% · DR Congo 15%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Colombia 65% · draw 25% · DR Congo 10%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇨🇭Switzerland

1.2 – 1.2projected goals

🇨🇦Canada

Switzerland 41% · draw 26% · Canada 33%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Switzerland 41% · draw 31% · Canada 28%

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina

1.5 – 1.2projected goals

🇶🇦Qatar

Bosnia and Herzegovina 60% · draw 20% · Qatar 19%total 2.7 goals

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🇲🇦Morocco

1.9 – 0.7projected goals

🇭🇹Haiti

Morocco 78% · draw 14% · Haiti 7%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Morocco 83% · draw 12% · Haiti 5%

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland

0.9 – 2.3projected goals

🇧🇷Brazil

Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Scotland 10% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇨🇿Czech Republic

1.0 – 1.7projected goals

🇲🇽Mexico

Czech Republic 19% · draw 22% · Mexico 59%total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Czech Republic 25% · draw 24% · Mexico 50%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇿🇦South Africa

0.8 – 1.5projected goals

🇰🇷South Korea

South Africa 15% · draw 21% · South Korea 64%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: South Africa 17% · draw 25% · South Korea 58%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇪🇨Ecuador

1.2 – 1.0projected goals

🇩🇪Germany

Ecuador 32% · draw 26% · Germany 42%total 2.1 goals

Bookmakers: Ecuador 25% · draw 23% · Germany 51%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇨🇼Curacao

0.6 – 2.1projected goals

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

Curacao 5% · draw 12% · Ivory Coast 83%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Curacao 4% · draw 10% · Ivory Coast 86%

Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM

🇹🇳Tunisia

0.9 – 1.8projected goals

🇳🇱Netherlands

Tunisia 9% · draw 14% · Netherlands 77%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Tunisia 3% · draw 9% · Netherlands 88%

Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM

🇯🇵Japan

2.4 – 0.9projected goals

🇸🇪Sweden

Japan 61% · draw 20% · Sweden 19%total 3.3 goals

Bookmakers: Japan 51% · draw 27% · Sweden 22%

Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM

🇹🇷Turkey

1.7 – 1.4projected goals

🇺🇸United States

Turkey 42% · draw 24% · United States 34%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Turkey 26% · draw 23% · United States 51%

Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM

🇵🇾Paraguay

0.9 – 1.1projected goals

🇦🇺Australia

Paraguay 36% · draw 28% · Australia 36%total 2.0 goals

Bookmakers: Paraguay 33% · draw 43% · Australia 24%

Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM

🇳🇴Norway

1.3 – 1.7projected goals

🇫🇷France

Norway 24% · draw 22% · France 54%total 3.0 goals

Bookmakers: Norway 19% · draw 22% · France 59%

Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM

🇸🇳Senegal

1.7 – 0.8projected goals

🇮🇶Iraq

Senegal 76% · draw 15% · Iraq 9%total 2.5 goals

Bookmakers: Senegal 80% · draw 13% · Iraq 6%

Group stageJun 26, 8:00 PM

🇺🇾Uruguay

0.9 – 1.4projected goals

🇪🇸Spain

Uruguay 17% · draw 22% · Spain 61%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Uruguay 13% · draw 22% · Spain 65%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2111	23.2%	14.2%
🇫🇷France	2091	18.7%	18.3%
🇦🇷Argentina	2067	18.6%	12.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2052	11.6%	12.1%
🇵🇹Portugal	1996	5.2%	7.8%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1991	4.1%	5.2%
🇩🇪Germany	1987	3.7%	5.6%
🇧🇷Brazil	1987	3.5%	5.2%
🇳🇴Norway	1950	2.2%	2.6%
🇧🇪Belgium	1933	1.7%	1.5%
🇺🇸United States	1855	1.6%	2.5%
🇨🇴Colombia	1921	1.3%	1.5%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 23, 7:00 PM	🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	0–1
Jun 23, 4:00 PM	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭Ghana	0–0
Jun 23, 1:00 PM	🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	5–0
Jun 22, 11:00 PM	🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	1–2
Jun 22, 8:00 PM	🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	3–2
Jun 22, 5:00 PM	🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	3–0
Jun 22, 1:00 PM	🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	2–0
Jun 21, 9:00 PM	🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM	🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	4–0
Jun 21, 12:00 AM	🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	0–4

Groups

Group A	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	2	2	0	0	+3	6	8.0	100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.2	95.1%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	2	0	1	1	-1	1	1.8	20.8%
🇿🇦South Africa	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.6	13.1%

Group B	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇦Canada	2	1	1	0	+6	4	5.2	100.0%
🇨🇭Switzerland	2	1	1	0	+3	4	5.5	100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	0	1	1	-3	1	3.3	70.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.5	12.0%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	2	1	1	0	+3	4	6.2	100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	2	1	1	0	+1	4	6.6	100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	2	1	0	1	+0	3	3.6	80.1%
🇭🇹Haiti	2	0	0	2	-4	0	0.3	0.0%

Group D	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	2	2	0	+5	6	7.3	100.0%
🇦🇺Australia	2	1	1	+0	3	4.2	89.8%
🇵🇾Paraguay	2	1	1	-2	3	4.5	85.4%
🇹🇷Turkey	2	0	2	-3	0	1.4	0.0%

Group E	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	2	2	0	0	+7	6	7.8	100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.7	98.3%
🇪🇨Ecuador	2	0	1	1	-1	1	2.0	24.9%
🇨🇼Curacao	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.2	4.6%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇱Netherlands	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.7	100.0%
🇯🇵Japan	2	1	1	0	+4	4	5.6	100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden	2	1	0	1	+0	3	4.2	94.9%
🇹🇳Tunisia	2	0	0	2	-8	0	0.2	0.0%

Group G	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇬Egypt	2	1	1	0	+2	4	5.6	100.0%
🇮🇷Iran	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.1	55.9%
🇧🇪Belgium	2	0	2	0	+0	2	4.7	96.5%
🇳🇿New Zealand	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.2	3.4%

Group H	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.2	100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	2	0	2	0	+0	2	2.6	35.9%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.4	66.1%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	2	0	1	1	-4	1	2.3	34.3%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇫🇷France	2	2	0	+5	6	7.9	100.0%
🇳🇴Norway	2	2	0	+4	6	6.8	100.0%
🇸🇳Senegal	2	0	2	-3	0	2.6	77.7%
🇮🇶Iraq	2	0	2	-6	0	0.3	2.1%

Group J	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	2	2	0	+5	6	8.9	100.0%
🇦🇹Austria	2	1	1	+0	3	4.4	94.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	2	1	1	-2	3	4.3	82.1%
🇯🇴Jordan	2	0	2	-3	0	0.1	0.0%

Group K	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇵🇹Portugal	2	1	1	0	+5	4	5.7	100.0%
🇨🇴Colombia	1	1	0	0	+2	3	6.2	99.1%
🇨🇩DR Congo	1	0	1	0	+0	1	3.2	58.4%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	2	0	0	2	-7	0	1.2	8.4%

Group L	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2	1	1	0	+2	4	6.8	100.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	2	1	1	0	+1	4	4.7	99.9%
🇭🇷Croatia	2	1	0	1	-1	3	5.1	96.9%
🇵🇦Panama	2	0	0	2	-2	0	0.1	0.0%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2111	100.0%	86.2%	67.6%	55.9%	36.5%	23.2%
🇫🇷France	I	2091	100.0%	89.8%	64.6%	47.3%	32.2%	18.7%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2067	100.0%	91.7%	75.6%	55.7%	32.2%	18.6%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2052	100.0%	82.3%	62.1%	40.1%	22.6%	11.6%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1996	100.0%	76.2%	46.2%	23.7%	11.4%	5.2%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1991	100.0%	60.2%	43.0%	19.6%	9.6%	4.1%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1987	100.0%	83.5%	34.2%	20.0%	9.5%	3.7%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	1987	100.0%	62.5%	38.0%	18.6%	8.6%	3.5%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1950	100.0%	71.5%	36.9%	17.4%	6.3%	2.2%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1933	96.5%	73.6%	29.4%	12.7%	4.7%	1.7%
🇺🇸United States	D	1855	100.0%	77.0%	47.5%	14.5%	4.9%	1.6%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1921	99.1%	61.8%	29.8%	11.5%	3.8%	1.3%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1909	100.0%	46.3%	24.9%	8.0%	2.9%	0.8%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1887	100.0%	70.9%	28.6%	8.1%	2.6%	0.7%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1841	100.0%	60.8%	18.9%	7.2%	2.2%	0.6%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1890	96.9%	43.2%	16.1%	6.5%	1.8%	0.5%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1797	100.0%	64.5%	22.8%	5.1%	1.4%	0.4%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1864	100.0%	37.8%	15.0%	4.4%	1.2%	0.3%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1894	35.9%	17.5%	8.2%	3.6%	1.1%	0.3%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1867	77.7%	37.7%	16.8%	4.6%	1.4%	0.3%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1887	24.9%	12.6%	5.9%	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1830	98.3%	27.5%	9.1%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1825	94.1%	22.3%	8.8%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1811	94.9%	29.9%	8.9%	2.2%	0.5%	<0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1804	82.1%	24.1%	9.2%	2.0%	0.3%	<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1767	80.1%	17.4%	3.4%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1697	99.9%	16.1%	3.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1745	20.8%	8.1%	2.2%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1708	100.0%	33.5%	6.7%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1721	58.4%	11.6%	2.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1535	13.1%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1757	95.1%	30.1%	6.6%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1423	12.0%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1657	70.0%	9.5%	2.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1561	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1746	85.4%	21.9%	2.5%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1709	89.8%	21.7%	1.7%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1910	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1450	4.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1602	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1639	55.9%	12.6%	1.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1521	3.4%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1577	66.1%	2.4%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1556	34.3%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1518	2.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1535	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1669	8.4%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1596	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.