⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Sunday, June 14 2026 at 6:40 AM

Best bets today $50 unit

KickoffMatchBetModelMarketBlendedPriceStakeTo winExp. profit
Jun 14, 10:00 PM🇸🇪Sweden vs 🇹🇳TunisiaTunisia to win35%22%27%4.42$70$239+$13.18
Jun 14, 7:00 PM🇨🇮Ivory Coast vs 🇪🇨EcuadorEcuador to win46%37%40%2.68$60$101+$4.72

Method: bookmaker margins are removed with a power (Shin-style) de-vig per book, combined by median into the Market consensus. Blended = 35% model + 65% market — the market prices in injuries and lineups the model can't see, so only disagreements that survive this shrinkage count as edge. Bets must clear +2% expected value at the best available price (filters winner's-curse noise across ~18 daily outcomes). Stakes are quarter-Kelly on a 100-unit ($5,000) bankroll, capped at 3 units; Exp. profit = stake × edge under the blended probability. Expect losing days — an edge is an average, not a promise.

Bet record settled bets only

Record 2–2 · staked $255 · net -102 · ROI -40.1% · 0 pending

KickoffMatchBetPriceStakeResultProfit
Jun 13, 9:00 PM🇭🇹Haiti vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandScotland to win1.56$60WIN+34
Jun 13, 6:00 PM🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇲🇦MoroccoDraw3.95$15WIN+44
Jun 13, 3:00 PM🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭SwitzerlandSwitzerland to win1.24$150LOSS-150
Jun 11, 10:00 PM🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech RepublicCzech Republic to win3.15$30LOSS-30

Matches today

Group stageJun 14, 1:00 PM
🇩🇪Germany
4.7 – 0.6projected goals
🇨🇼Curacao
Germany 95% · draw 3% · Curacao 2%total 5.2 goals
Bookmakers: Germany 96% · draw 3% · Curacao 1%
Group stageJun 14, 4:00 PM
🇳🇱Netherlands
1.3 – 1.4projected goals
🇯🇵Japan
Netherlands 35% · draw 25% · Japan 40%total 2.8 goals
Bookmakers: Netherlands 47% · draw 27% · Japan 26%
Group stageJun 14, 7:00 PM
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
0.6 – 1.0projected goals
🇪🇨Ecuador
Ivory Coast 21% · draw 33% · Ecuador 46%total 1.6 goals
Bookmakers: Ivory Coast 29% · draw 34% · Ecuador 37%
Group stageJun 14, 10:00 PM
🇸🇪Sweden
1.5 – 1.4projected goals
🇹🇳Tunisia
Sweden 40% · draw 24% · Tunisia 35%total 3.0 goals
Bookmakers: Sweden 50% · draw 28% · Tunisia 22%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 15, 12:00 PM
🇪🇸Spain
3.4 – 0.6projected goals
🇨🇻Cape Verde
Spain 88% · draw 8% · Cape Verde 4%total 4.0 goals
Bookmakers: Spain 91% · draw 7% · Cape Verde 3%
Group stageJun 15, 3:00 PM
🇧🇪Belgium
1.6 – 0.9projected goals
🇪🇬Egypt
Belgium 54% · draw 25% · Egypt 21%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: Belgium 60% · draw 24% · Egypt 16%
Group stageJun 15, 6:00 PM
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
0.5 – 1.7projected goals
🇺🇾Uruguay
Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 23% · Uruguay 66%total 2.2 goals
Bookmakers: Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 21% · Uruguay 68%
Group stageJun 15, 9:00 PM
🇮🇷Iran
2.0 – 0.7projected goals
🇳🇿New Zealand
Iran 69% · draw 20% · New Zealand 12%total 2.7 goals
Bookmakers: Iran 53% · draw 27% · New Zealand 20%
Group stageJun 16, 3:00 PM
🇫🇷France
1.7 – 1.3projected goals
🇸🇳Senegal
France 47% · draw 24% · Senegal 29%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: France 67% · draw 21% · Senegal 12%
Group stageJun 16, 6:00 PM
🇮🇶Iraq
0.7 – 2.2projected goals
🇳🇴Norway
Iraq 11% · draw 18% · Norway 71%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Iraq 5% · draw 12% · Norway 83%
Group stageJun 16, 9:00 PM
🇦🇷Argentina
1.8 – 0.7projected goals
🇩🇿Algeria
Argentina 65% · draw 22% · Algeria 13%total 2.5 goals
Bookmakers: Argentina 71% · draw 20% · Algeria 10%
Group stageJun 17, 12:00 AM
🇦🇹Austria
2.4 – 1.0projected goals
🇯🇴Jordan
Austria 67% · draw 18% · Jordan 15%total 3.4 goals
Bookmakers: Austria 74% · draw 17% · Jordan 10%
Group stageJun 17, 1:00 PM
🇵🇹Portugal
1.7 – 0.7projected goals
🇨🇩DR Congo
Portugal 60% · draw 24% · DR Congo 16%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Portugal 76% · draw 16% · DR Congo 8%
Group stageJun 17, 4:00 PM
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England
1.6 – 0.9projected goals
🇭🇷Croatia
England 53% · draw 25% · Croatia 22%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: England 57% · draw 25% · Croatia 18%
Group stageJun 17, 7:00 PM
🇬🇭Ghana
1.5 – 1.3projected goals
🇵🇦Panama
Ghana 42% · draw 25% · Panama 33%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Ghana 45% · draw 28% · Panama 27%
Group stageJun 17, 10:00 PM
🇺🇿Uzbekistan
0.7 – 2.2projected goals
🇨🇴Colombia
Uzbekistan 11% · draw 18% · Colombia 71%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Uzbekistan 10% · draw 19% · Colombia 71%

Who wins the World Cup

TeamRatingModelMarket
🇪🇸Spain210022.9%15.8%
🇫🇷France206817.3%16.2%
🇦🇷Argentina204712.9%8.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England204112.2%11.1%
🇵🇹Portugal20027.6%10.1%
🇧🇷Brazil19915.4%7.3%
🇳🇱Netherlands19613.9%4.4%
🇩🇪Germany19693.5%5.1%
🇳🇴Norway19271.9%2.3%
🇧🇪Belgium19111.8%2.3%
🇨🇴Colombia19131.7%1.5%
🇪🇨Ecuador19051.2%0.8%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

DateMatchScore
Jun 14, 12:00 AM🇦🇺Australia vs 🇹🇷Turkey2–0
Jun 13, 9:00 PM🇭🇹Haiti vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland0–1
Jun 13, 6:00 PM🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇲🇦Morocco1–1
Jun 13, 3:00 PM🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭Switzerland1–1
Jun 12, 9:00 PM🇺🇸United States vs 🇵🇾Paraguay4–1
Jun 12, 3:00 PM🇨🇦Canada vs 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina1–1
Jun 11, 10:00 PM🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech Republic2–1
Jun 11, 3:00 PM🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇿🇦South Africa2–0

Groups

Group APWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇲🇽Mexico1100+236.898.9%
🇰🇷South Korea1100+136.195.4%
🇨🇿Czech Republic1001-103.063.0%
🇿🇦South Africa1001-201.315.2%
Group BPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇭Switzerland1010+014.683.2%
🇨🇦Canada1010+014.992.8%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina1010+013.977.1%
🇶🇦Qatar1010+011.818.1%
Group CPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland1100+134.683.9%
🇧🇷Brazil1010+015.997.7%
🇲🇦Morocco1010+015.292.3%
🇭🇹Haiti1001-100.63.8%
Group DPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇺🇸United States1100+336.397.7%
🇦🇺Australia1100+235.287.9%
🇹🇷Turkey1001-203.256.6%
🇵🇾Paraguay1001-302.433.6%
Group EPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇩🇪Germany0000+006.598.3%
🇪🇨Ecuador0000+005.695.4%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast0000+004.383.2%
🇨🇼Curacao0000+000.53.4%
Group FPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇳🇱Netherlands0000+006.394.9%
🇯🇵Japan0000+004.984.2%
🇸🇪Sweden0000+003.970.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia0000+001.621.1%
Group GPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇪Belgium0000+007.198.0%
🇪🇬Egypt0000+004.274.5%
🇮🇷Iran0000+003.459.7%
🇳🇿New Zealand0000+002.129.6%
Group HPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇸Spain0000+008.099.9%
🇺🇾Uruguay0000+005.594.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde0000+002.024.4%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia0000+001.719.1%
Group IPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇫🇷France0000+006.998.9%
🇳🇴Norway0000+005.091.0%
🇸🇳Senegal0000+004.585.5%
🇮🇶Iraq0000+000.64.0%
Group JPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇦🇷Argentina0000+007.499.1%
🇦🇹Austria0000+004.479.9%
🇩🇿Algeria0000+004.072.9%
🇯🇴Jordan0000+001.212.6%
Group KPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇵🇹Portugal0000+006.797.2%
🇨🇴Colombia0000+005.590.2%
🇨🇩DR Congo0000+002.436.6%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan0000+002.335.1%
Group LPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England0000+007.399.1%
🇭🇷Croatia0000+005.591.4%
🇬🇭Ghana0000+002.333.6%
🇵🇦Panama0000+001.926.4%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

TeamGrpRatingLast 32Last 16QuartersSemisFinalChampion
🇪🇸SpainH210099.9%81.3%62.4%49.9%34.8%22.9%
🇫🇷FranceI206898.9%82.5%61.1%44.8%30.4%17.3%
🇦🇷ArgentinaJ204799.1%67.7%54.9%39.0%22.2%12.9%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandL204199.1%78.6%55.4%35.9%21.9%12.2%
🇵🇹PortugalK200297.2%71.6%47.9%27.9%14.4%7.6%
🇧🇷BrazilC199197.7%65.5%41.6%22.6%11.7%5.4%
🇳🇱NetherlandsF196194.9%57.6%37.5%18.0%8.9%3.9%
🇩🇪GermanyE196998.3%67.0%34.6%19.5%9.4%3.5%
🇳🇴NorwayI192791.0%55.0%29.0%13.8%5.2%1.9%
🇧🇪BelgiumG191198.0%66.4%37.5%12.6%5.0%1.8%
🇨🇴ColombiaK191390.2%50.6%24.4%11.4%4.2%1.7%
🇪🇨EcuadorE190595.4%52.3%23.3%10.7%4.0%1.2%
🇺🇸United StatesD183397.7%63.9%30.2%10.4%3.8%1.2%
🇭🇷CroatiaL189691.4%50.1%20.3%9.3%3.2%1.0%
🇲🇽MexicoA183298.9%57.7%22.8%8.4%3.0%0.9%
🇲🇦MoroccoC187892.3%43.9%21.1%7.9%2.5%0.7%
🇺🇾UruguayH188194.0%36.0%20.2%8.9%2.6%0.7%
🇸🇳SenegalI188585.5%45.6%21.0%8.0%2.5%0.7%
🇯🇵JapanF186884.2%37.1%17.2%6.0%2.0%0.6%
🇹🇷TurkeyD187956.6%29.5%12.4%4.9%1.6%0.5%
🇨🇭SwitzerlandB186283.2%51.7%20.4%6.3%1.9%0.5%
🇨🇦CanadaB177892.8%51.1%18.5%4.6%1.2%0.2%
🇨🇮Ivory CoastE180983.2%31.8%10.4%2.6%0.6%0.1%
🇸🇪SwedenF179970.0%24.1%7.9%2.2%0.5%0.1%
🇩🇿AlgeriaJ179172.9%19.4%7.1%2.0%0.4%0.1%
🇦🇹AustriaJ182379.9%22.5%9.8%2.8%0.5%<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandC177983.9%26.9%8.1%2.0%0.4%<0.1%
🇰🇷South KoreaA176195.4%39.6%9.8%2.1%0.3%<0.1%
🇦🇺AustraliaD174687.9%40.2%8.9%1.8%0.2%<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech RepublicA174563.0%21.0%5.6%0.8%0.2%<0.1%
🇵🇾ParaguayD176133.6%12.4%2.7%0.6%<0.1%<0.1%
🇪🇬EgyptG170374.5%24.4%4.4%0.6%<0.1%<0.1%
🇺🇿UzbekistanK169035.1%5.9%1.1%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%
🇿🇦South AfricaA154915.2%1.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇶🇦QatarB145418.1%1.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaB168077.1%22.8%4.5%0.6%<0.1%0.0%
🇭🇹HaitiC15713.8%0.4%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇼CuracaoE14663.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇹🇳TunisiaF163321.1%3.1%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇷IranG165059.7%14.7%1.9%0.3%<0.1%0.0%
🇳🇿New ZealandG155029.6%4.0%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇻Cape VerdeH159024.4%2.1%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaH156919.1%1.8%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇶IraqI15384.0%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇯🇴JordanJ157212.6%1.1%0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇩DR CongoK169636.6%6.7%1.3%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇬🇭GhanaL166033.6%5.1%0.8%0.1%<0.1%0.0%
🇵🇦PanamaL163426.4%3.4%0.5%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.