Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Wednesday, June 24 2026 at 1:30 PM
⚠️ Dead-rubber goal dampening applied: Morocco vs Haiti, Scotland vs Brazil, Czech Republic vs Mexico, Ecuador vs Germany, Curacao vs Ivory Coast, Tunisia vs Netherlands, Japan vs Sweden, Turkey vs United States, Norway vs France, Senegal vs Iraq, Uruguay vs Spain.
⚠️ Circuit-breaker paused: game (negative rolling CLV).
Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L
Net P&L
-$286.24
after $1.20 costs
Realized
-$285.04
36 settled
At risk
$12.61
1 open
ROI
-25.1%
on settled stake
Record
10–26
W–L
Match winner · PAUSED · CLV -14%(17)Over/Under · -44% ROI · CLV – (11)Both teams to score · -54% ROI · CLV +8%(8)
Match
Bet
Our Prob
Kalshi Prob
Net Edge
Cost
Status
P&L
đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina vs đśđŚQatar
đśđŚQatar
22%
12¢
+5.6%
$12.61
Placed
–
đšđˇTurkey vs đľđžParaguay
đľđžParaguay
37%
25¢
+6.4%
$74.40
Won
+174.60
đŠđŞGermany vs đ¨đŽIvory Coast
đ¨đŽIvory Coast
25%
17¢
+4.4%
$28.56
Lost
-28.56
đ§đŞBelgium vs đŽđˇIran
đŽđˇIran
22%
13¢
+4.9%
$15.86
Lost
-15.86
đşđ¸United States vs đŚđşAustralia
đŚđşAustralia
30%
18¢
+6.0%
$74.95
Lost
-74.95
đşđ¸United States vs đŚđşAustralia
Draw
20%
13¢
+3.0%
$17.03
Lost
-17.03
đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland vs đ˛đŚMorocco
đ˛đŚMorocco
89%
80¢
+3.2%
$8.00
Won
+2.00
đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland vs đ˛đŚMorocco
đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland
16%
5¢
+6.8%
$0.10
Lost
-0.10
đ§đˇBrazil vs đđšHaiti
Over 3.5 goals
75%
46¢
+23.0%
$58.88
Lost
-58.88
đ§đˇBrazil vs đđšHaiti
Draw
20%
10¢
+5.5%
$15.46
Lost
-15.46
đšđˇTurkey vs đľđžParaguay
đšđˇTurkey
44%
25¢
+12.6%
$25.04
Lost
-25.04
đłđąNetherlands vs đ¸đŞSweden
đ¸đŞSweden
18%
10¢
+4.3%
$14.64
Lost
-14.64
đłđąNetherlands vs đ¸đŞSweden
Over 2.5 goals
89%
78¢
+5.3%
$67.08
Won
+18.92
đŻđ´Jordan vs đŠđżAlgeria
Both score
62%
46¢
+9.6%
$39.56
Won
+46.44
đ§đŞBelgium vs đŽđˇIran
Both score
60%
48¢
+6.5%
$32.64
Lost
-32.64
đŞđ¸Spain vs đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia
Both score
41%
31¢
+4.0%
$19.84
Lost
-19.84
đŞđ¨Ecuador vs đ¨đźCuracao
Over 2.5 goals
62%
43¢
+12.9%
$42.45
Lost
-42.45
đŞđ¨Ecuador vs đ¨đźCuracao
Both score
19%
10¢
+5.2%
$14.52
Lost
-14.52
đšđłTunisia vs đŻđľJapan
Over 2.5 goals
90%
68¢
+15.5%
$38.08
Won
+17.92
đşđžUruguay vs đ¨đťCape Verde
Over 4.5 goals
43%
16¢
+23.4%
$34.24
Lost
-34.24
đşđžUruguay vs đ¨đťCape Verde
Draw
100%
86¢
+10.0%
$74.72
Won
+11.28
đłđżNew Zealand vs đŞđŹEgypt
đłđżNew Zealand
26%
16¢
+6.2%
$47.42
Lost
-47.42
đŚđˇArgentina vs đŚđšAustria
Draw
27%
13¢
+10.5%
$26.06
Lost
-26.06
đŚđˇArgentina vs đŚđšAustria
Over 2.5 goals
51%
41¢
+4.1%
$13.12
Lost
-13.12
đŤđˇFrance vs đŽđśIraq
Over 3.5 goals
45%
27¢
+11.8%
$18.36
Lost
-18.36
đŤđˇFrance vs đŽđśIraq
Both score
33%
21¢
+5.5%
$15.98
Lost
-15.98
đłđ´Norway vs đ¸đłSenegal
đłđ´Norway
50%
39¢
+5.1%
$56.36
Won
+36.64
đŻđ´Jordan vs đŠđżAlgeria
đŻđ´Jordan
27%
14¢
+8.8%
$39.99
Lost
-39.99
đŻđ´Jordan vs đŠđżAlgeria
Over 2.5 goals
55%
34¢
+14.8%
$22.78
Won
+44.22
đľđšPortugal vs đşđżUzbekistan
Both score
33%
20¢
+6.7%
$26.41
Lost
-26.41
đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland vs đŹđGhana
Over 2.5 goals
55%
35¢
+14.3%
$19.95
Lost
-19.95
đľđŚPanama vs đđˇCroatia
đđˇCroatia
68%
51¢
+11.4%
$29.58
Won
+28.42
đľđŚPanama vs đđˇCroatia
Both score
42%
27¢
+8.9%
$22.53
Lost
-22.53
đľđŚPanama vs đđˇCroatia
Over 2.5 goals
56%
27¢
+23.0%
$29.16
Lost
-29.16
đ¨đ´Colombia vs đ¨đŠDR Congo
Over 1.5 goals
62%
45¢
+10.9%
$28.65
Lost
-28.65
đ¨đ´Colombia vs đ¨đŠDR Congo
Both score
32%
20¢
+5.7%
$16.70
Lost
-16.70
đ¨đ´Colombia vs đ¨đŠDR Congo
đ¨đ´Colombia
65%
43¢
+15.6%
$24.94
Won
+33.06
Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.
⚠️ Only 22 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~28 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.
Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.
Recent results
Date
Match
Score
Jun 23, 10:00 PM
đ¨đ´Colombia vs đ¨đŠDR Congo
1–0
Jun 23, 7:00 PM
đľđŚPanama vs đđˇCroatia
0–1
Jun 23, 4:00 PM
đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland vs đŹđGhana
0–0
Jun 23, 1:00 PM
đľđšPortugal vs đşđżUzbekistan
5–0
Jun 22, 11:00 PM
đŻđ´Jordan vs đŠđżAlgeria
1–2
Jun 22, 8:00 PM
đłđ´Norway vs đ¸đłSenegal
3–2
Jun 22, 5:00 PM
đŤđˇFrance vs đŽđśIraq
3–0
Jun 22, 1:00 PM
đŚđˇArgentina vs đŚđšAustria
2–0
Jun 21, 9:00 PM
đłđżNew Zealand vs đŞđŹEgypt
1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM
đşđžUruguay vs đ¨đťCape Verde
2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM
đ§đŞBelgium vs đŽđˇIran
0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM
đŞđ¸Spain vs đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia
4–0
Groups
Group A
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đ˛đ˝Mexico
2
2
0
0
+3
6
7.9
100.0%
đ°đˇSouth Korea
2
1
0
1
+0
3
5.2
95.3%
đ¨đżCzech Republic
2
0
1
1
-1
1
1.8
21.5%
đżđŚSouth Africa
2
0
1
1
-2
1
1.6
13.1%
Group B
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đ¨đŚCanada
2
1
1
0
+6
4
5.2
100.0%
đ¨đSwitzerland
2
1
1
0
+3
4
5.5
100.0%
đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina
2
0
1
1
-3
1
3.3
69.7%
đśđŚQatar
2
0
1
1
-6
1
1.5
12.1%
Group C
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đ§đˇBrazil
2
1
1
0
+3
4
6.2
100.0%
đ˛đŚMorocco
2
1
1
0
+1
4
6.6
100.0%
đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland
2
1
0
1
+0
3
3.6
81.8%
đđšHaiti
2
0
0
2
-4
0
0.3
0.0%
Group D
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đşđ¸United States
2
2
0
0
+5
6
7.3
100.0%
đŚđşAustralia
2
1
0
1
+0
3
4.2
91.0%
đľđžParaguay
2
1
0
1
-2
3
4.5
86.4%
đšđˇTurkey
2
0
0
2
-3
0
1.4
0.0%
Group E
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đŠđŞGermany
2
2
0
0
+7
6
7.8
100.0%
đ¨đŽIvory Coast
2
1
0
1
+0
3
5.7
98.4%
đŞđ¨Ecuador
2
0
1
1
-1
1
2.0
25.0%
đ¨đźCuracao
2
0
1
1
-6
1
1.2
4.3%
Group F
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đłđąNetherlands
2
1
1
0
+4
4
6.7
100.0%
đŻđľJapan
2
1
1
0
+4
4
5.6
100.0%
đ¸đŞSweden
2
1
0
1
+0
3
4.2
95.9%
đšđłTunisia
2
0
0
2
-8
0
0.2
0.0%
Group G
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đŞđŹEgypt
2
1
1
0
+2
4
5.7
100.0%
đŽđˇIran
2
0
2
0
+0
2
3.1
54.2%
đ§đŞBelgium
2
0
2
0
+0
2
4.7
96.8%
đłđżNew Zealand
2
0
1
1
-2
1
1.2
3.2%
Group H
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đŞđ¸Spain
2
1
1
0
+4
4
6.2
100.0%
đşđžUruguay
2
0
2
0
+0
2
2.6
36.7%
đ¨đťCape Verde
2
0
2
0
+0
2
3.5
67.0%
đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia
2
0
1
1
-4
1
2.3
33.3%
Group I
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đŤđˇFrance
2
2
0
0
+5
6
7.9
100.0%
đłđ´Norway
2
2
0
0
+4
6
6.8
100.0%
đ¸đłSenegal
2
0
0
2
-3
0
2.6
78.8%
đŽđśIraq
2
0
0
2
-6
0
0.3
2.2%
Group J
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đŚđˇArgentina
2
2
0
0
+5
6
8.9
100.0%
đŚđšAustria
2
1
0
1
+0
3
4.4
94.5%
đŠđżAlgeria
2
1
0
1
-2
3
4.3
84.4%
đŻđ´Jordan
2
0
0
2
-3
0
0.1
0.0%
Group K
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đ¨đ´Colombia
2
2
0
0
+3
6
7.1
100.0%
đľđšPortugal
2
1
1
0
+5
4
5.7
100.0%
đ¨đŠDR Congo
2
0
1
1
-1
1
2.6
46.3%
đşđżUzbekistan
2
0
0
2
-7
0
1.2
10.4%
Group L
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland
2
1
1
0
+2
4
6.8
100.0%
đŹđGhana
2
1
1
0
+1
4
4.6
100.0%
đđˇCroatia
2
1
0
1
-1
3
5.2
97.5%
đľđŚPanama
2
0
0
2
-2
0
0.1
0.0%
Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.
Round-by-round odds all 48 teams
Team
Grp
Rating
Last 32
Last 16
Quarters
Semis
Final
Champion
đŞđ¸Spain
H
2113
100.0%
86.7%
65.7%
54.3%
36.1%
23.2%
đŚđˇArgentina
J
2068
100.0%
92.3%
75.3%
54.8%
31.5%
18.3%
đŤđˇFrance
I
2093
100.0%
90.2%
64.3%
46.2%
31.0%
17.3%
đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland
L
2069
100.0%
87.5%
67.6%
46.1%
26.8%
14.1%
đľđšPortugal
K
1996
100.0%
77.7%
44.5%
23.0%
10.8%
4.9%
đłđąNetherlands
F
1992
100.0%
61.6%
44.3%
19.7%
9.3%
4.1%
đŠđŞGermany
E
1988
100.0%
83.7%
34.3%
20.5%
9.6%
3.8%
đ§đˇBrazil
C
1988
100.0%
62.6%
37.3%
17.2%
8.1%
3.2%
đłđ´Norway
I
1951
100.0%
72.1%
37.9%
16.8%
6.2%
2.2%
đ§đŞBelgium
G
1934
96.8%
73.5%
28.5%
12.7%
4.7%
1.7%
đ¨đ´Colombia
K
1926
100.0%
69.2%
34.7%
14.4%
5.0%
1.6%
đşđ¸United States
D
1856
100.0%
77.1%
48.7%
14.6%
5.1%
1.6%
đ˛đŚMorocco
C
1910
100.0%
46.5%
25.2%
8.2%
2.6%
0.7%
đ¨đSwitzerland
B
1887
100.0%
71.0%
29.2%
8.3%
2.6%
0.7%
đ˛đ˝Mexico
A
1841
100.0%
61.2%
17.4%
6.8%
2.1%
0.7%
đđˇCroatia
L
1895
97.5%
39.9%
15.3%
6.0%
1.9%
0.4%
đ¸đłSenegal
I
1867
78.8%
38.1%
16.5%
4.6%
1.2%
0.3%
đ¨đŚCanada
B
1797
100.0%
63.6%
21.5%
4.8%
1.2%
0.3%
đŻđľJapan
F
1864
100.0%
36.2%
14.1%
4.0%
0.9%
0.2%
đşđžUruguay
H
1894
36.7%
17.5%
8.0%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
đŞđ¨Ecuador
E
1888
25.0%
12.5%
5.7%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
đŠđżAlgeria
J
1804
84.4%
24.2%
8.6%
1.8%
0.3%
0.1%
đ¨đŽIvory Coast
E
1831
98.4%
26.9%
8.7%
2.0%
0.4%
<0.1%
đ¸đŞSweden
F
1811
95.9%
29.2%
8.5%
2.0%
0.3%
<0.1%
đŚđšAustria
J
1825
94.5%
21.5%
7.6%
2.1%
0.4%
<0.1%
đ°đˇSouth Korea
A
1757
95.3%
31.1%
6.3%
0.7%
0.1%
<0.1%
đ¨đżCzech Republic
A
1745
21.5%
8.3%
2.3%
0.3%
<0.1%
<0.1%
đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland
C
1767
81.8%
17.5%
3.3%
0.5%
<0.1%
<0.1%
đŚđşAustralia
D
1708
91.0%
22.6%
2.0%
0.5%
<0.1%
<0.1%
đżđŚSouth Africa
A
1534
13.1%
1.1%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đśđŚQatar
B
1421
12.1%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina
B
1657
69.7%
9.2%
2.1%
0.2%
<0.1%
0.0%
đđšHaiti
C
1560
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đľđžParaguay
D
1746
86.4%
21.4%
2.5%
0.6%
<0.1%
0.0%
đšđˇTurkey
D
1911
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đ¨đźCuracao
E
1448
4.3%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đšđłTunisia
F
1601
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đŞđŹEgypt
G
1707
100.0%
33.1%
6.5%
0.7%
<0.1%
0.0%
đŽđˇIran
G
1637
54.2%
12.0%
1.0%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
đłđżNew Zealand
G
1519
3.2%
0.5%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đ¨đťCape Verde
H
1576
67.0%
2.4%
0.3%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia
H
1554
33.3%
0.8%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đŽđśIraq
I
1516
2.2%
0.2%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đŻđ´Jordan
J
1533
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đşđżUzbekistan
K
1669
10.4%
0.6%
0.2%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
đ¨đŠDR Congo
K
1716
46.3%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
<0.1%
0.0%
đŹđGhana
L
1682
100.0%
12.6%
2.8%
0.2%
<0.1%
0.0%
đľđŚPanama
L
1590
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.