⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Wednesday, June 24 2026 at 3:30 PM
⚠️ Dead-rubber goal dampening applied: Czech Republic vs Mexico, Ecuador vs Germany, Curacao vs Ivory Coast, Tunisia vs Netherlands, Japan vs Sweden, Turkey vs United States, Norway vs France, Senegal vs Iraq, Uruguay vs Spain.
⚠️ Circuit-breaker paused: game (negative rolling CLV).

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L
-$286.24
after $1.20 costs
Realized
-$285.04
36 settled
At risk
$12.61
1 open
ROI
-25.1%
on settled stake
Record
10–26
W–L
Match winner · PAUSED · CLV -11% (17)Over/Under · -44% ROI · CLV – (11)Both teams to score · -54% ROI · CLV +8% (8)
MatchBetOur ProbKalshi ProbNet EdgeCostStatusP&L
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar🇶🇦Qatar19%4¢+11.0%$12.61Placed–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay🇵🇾Paraguay37%25¢+6.4%$74.40Won+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast🇨🇮Ivory Coast25%17¢+4.4%$28.56Lost-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran🇮🇷Iran22%13¢+4.9%$15.86Lost-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia🇦🇺Australia30%18¢+6.0%$74.95Lost-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺AustraliaDraw20%13¢+3.0%$17.03Lost-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco🇲🇦Morocco89%80¢+3.2%$8.00Won+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland16%5¢+6.8%$0.10Lost-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹HaitiOver 3.5 goals75%46¢+23.0%$58.88Lost-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹HaitiDraw20%10¢+5.5%$15.46Lost-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay🇹🇷Turkey44%25¢+12.6%$25.04Lost-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden🇸🇪Sweden18%10¢+4.3%$14.64Lost-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪SwedenOver 2.5 goals89%78¢+5.3%$67.08Won+18.92
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿AlgeriaBoth score62%46¢+9.6%$39.56Won+46.44
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷IranBoth score60%48¢+6.5%$32.64Lost-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaBoth score41%31¢+4.0%$19.84Lost-19.84
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼CuracaoOver 2.5 goals62%43¢+12.9%$42.45Lost-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼CuracaoBoth score19%10¢+5.2%$14.52Lost-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵JapanOver 2.5 goals90%68¢+15.5%$38.08Won+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape VerdeOver 4.5 goals43%16¢+23.4%$34.24Lost-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape VerdeDraw100%86¢+10.0%$74.72Won+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt🇳🇿New Zealand26%16¢+6.2%$47.42Lost-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹AustriaDraw27%13¢+10.5%$26.06Lost-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹AustriaOver 2.5 goals51%41¢+4.1%$13.12Lost-13.12
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶IraqOver 3.5 goals45%27¢+11.8%$18.36Lost-18.36
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶IraqBoth score33%21¢+5.5%$15.98Lost-15.98
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal🇳🇴Norway50%39¢+5.1%$56.36Won+36.64
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria🇯🇴Jordan27%14¢+8.8%$39.99Lost-39.99
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿AlgeriaOver 2.5 goals55%34¢+14.8%$22.78Won+44.22
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿UzbekistanBoth score33%20¢+6.7%$26.41Lost-26.41
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭GhanaOver 2.5 goals55%35¢+14.3%$19.95Lost-19.95
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia🇭🇷Croatia68%51¢+11.4%$29.58Won+28.42
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷CroatiaBoth score42%27¢+8.9%$22.53Lost-22.53
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷CroatiaOver 2.5 goals56%27¢+23.0%$29.16Lost-29.16
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR CongoOver 1.5 goals62%45¢+10.9%$28.65Lost-28.65
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR CongoBoth score32%20¢+5.7%$16.70Lost-16.70
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo🇨🇴Colombia65%43¢+15.6%$24.94Won+33.06

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 22 graded

Accuracy 73% ±19% · always-favorite baseline 50% · Brier 0.484 (base-rate 0.624) · skill +22.5% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 22 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~28 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM
🇨🇭Switzerland
1.2 – 1.2projected goals
🇨🇦Canada
Switzerland 41% · draw 26% · Canada 33%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Switzerland 39% · draw 32% · Canada 29%
Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.5 – 1.2projected goals
🇶🇦Qatar
Bosnia and Herzegovina 61% · draw 20% · Qatar 19%total 2.7 goals
Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM
🇲🇦Morocco
1.8 – 0.7projected goals
🇭🇹Haiti
Morocco 74% · draw 17% · Haiti 9%total 2.5 goals
Bookmakers: Morocco 84% · draw 12% · Haiti 4%
Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland
0.9 – 2.1projected goals
🇧🇷Brazil
Scotland 14% · draw 20% · Brazil 66%total 3.0 goals
Bookmakers: Scotland 9% · draw 16% · Brazil 75%
Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM
🇨🇿Czech Republic
1.0 – 1.5projected goals
🇲🇽Mexico
Czech Republic 22% · draw 25% · Mexico 53%total 2.5 goals
Bookmakers: Czech Republic 25% · draw 24% · Mexico 50%
Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM
🇿🇦South Africa
0.8 – 1.5projected goals
🇰🇷South Korea
South Africa 15% · draw 21% · South Korea 65%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: South Africa 16% · draw 24% · South Korea 61%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM
🇪🇨Ecuador
1.1 – 0.9projected goals
🇩🇪Germany
Ecuador 33% · draw 28% · Germany 39%total 2.0 goals
Bookmakers: Ecuador 25% · draw 23% · Germany 52%
Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM
🇨🇼Curacao
0.6 – 1.9projected goals
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
Curacao 8% · draw 16% · Ivory Coast 76%total 2.5 goals
Bookmakers: Curacao 4% · draw 10% · Ivory Coast 86%
Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM
🇹🇳Tunisia
0.8 – 1.5projected goals
🇳🇱Netherlands
Tunisia 11% · draw 18% · Netherlands 71%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: Tunisia 3% · draw 8% · Netherlands 89%
Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM
🇯🇵Japan
2.1 – 0.9projected goals
🇸🇪Sweden
Japan 55% · draw 23% · Sweden 22%total 3.0 goals
Bookmakers: Japan 52% · draw 27% · Sweden 22%
Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM
🇹🇷Turkey
1.5 – 1.3projected goals
🇺🇸United States
Turkey 41% · draw 26% · United States 34%total 2.8 goals
Bookmakers: Turkey 26% · draw 23% · United States 51%
Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM
🇵🇾Paraguay
0.9 – 1.1projected goals
🇦🇺Australia
Paraguay 36% · draw 28% · Australia 36%total 2.0 goals
Bookmakers: Paraguay 33% · draw 43% · Australia 24%
Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM
🇳🇴Norway
1.2 – 1.5projected goals
🇫🇷France
Norway 25% · draw 25% · France 51%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: Norway 20% · draw 21% · France 59%
Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM
🇸🇳Senegal
1.7 – 0.7projected goals
🇮🇶Iraq
Senegal 73% · draw 17% · Iraq 10%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Senegal 80% · draw 13% · Iraq 6%
Group stageJun 26, 8:00 PM
🇺🇾Uruguay
0.9 – 1.2projected goals
🇪🇸Spain
Uruguay 20% · draw 25% · Spain 55%total 2.1 goals
Bookmakers: Uruguay 13% · draw 22% · Spain 65%
Group stageJun 26, 8:00 PM
🇨🇻Cape Verde
1.1 – 1.2projected goals
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
Cape Verde 37% · draw 27% · Saudi Arabia 36%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: Cape Verde 39% · draw 28% · Saudi Arabia 33%

Who wins the World Cup

TeamRatingModelMarket
🇪🇸Spain211322.6%14.3%
🇦🇷Argentina206818.0%12.2%
🇫🇷France209317.7%18.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England206915.1%11.9%
🇵🇹Portugal19964.4%7.9%
🇩🇪Germany19884.2%5.7%
🇳🇱Netherlands19924.0%5.2%
🇧🇷Brazil19883.1%5.3%
🇳🇴Norway19512.1%2.6%
🇨🇴Colombia19261.6%1.5%
🇺🇸United States18561.5%2.6%
🇧🇪Belgium19341.4%1.5%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

DateMatchScore
Jun 23, 10:00 PM🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo1–0
Jun 23, 7:00 PM🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia0–1
Jun 23, 4:00 PM🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭Ghana0–0
Jun 23, 1:00 PM🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan5–0
Jun 22, 11:00 PM🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria1–2
Jun 22, 8:00 PM🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal3–2
Jun 22, 5:00 PM🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq3–0
Jun 22, 1:00 PM🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria2–0
Jun 21, 9:00 PM🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia4–0

Groups

Group APWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇲🇽Mexico2200+368.0100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea2101+035.295.7%
🇨🇿Czech Republic2011-111.821.5%
🇿🇦South Africa2011-211.612.8%
Group BPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇦Canada2110+645.2100.0%
🇨🇭Switzerland2110+345.5100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina2011-313.368.8%
🇶🇦Qatar2011-611.612.3%
Group CPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇷Brazil2110+346.2100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco2110+146.6100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland2101+033.682.2%
🇭🇹Haiti2002-400.30.0%
Group DPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇺🇸United States2200+567.3100.0%
🇦🇺Australia2101+034.290.8%
🇵🇾Paraguay2101-234.587.2%
🇹🇷Turkey2002-301.40.0%
Group EPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇩🇪Germany2200+767.8100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast2101+035.798.6%
🇪🇨Ecuador2011-112.024.6%
🇨🇼Curacao2011-611.24.0%
Group FPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇳🇱Netherlands2110+446.7100.0%
🇯🇵Japan2110+445.6100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden2101+034.295.7%
🇹🇳Tunisia2002-800.20.0%
Group GPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇬Egypt2110+245.7100.0%
🇮🇷Iran2020+023.155.0%
🇧🇪Belgium2020+024.796.5%
🇳🇿New Zealand2011-211.23.5%
Group HPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇸Spain2110+446.2100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay2020+022.636.5%
🇨🇻Cape Verde2020+023.566.6%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia2011-412.333.8%
Group IPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇫🇷France2200+567.9100.0%
🇳🇴Norway2200+466.8100.0%
🇸🇳Senegal2002-302.678.5%
🇮🇶Iraq2002-600.32.7%
Group JPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇦🇷Argentina2200+568.9100.0%
🇦🇹Austria2101+034.594.8%
🇩🇿Algeria2101-234.383.8%
🇯🇴Jordan2002-300.10.0%
Group KPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇴Colombia2200+367.1100.0%
🇵🇹Portugal2110+545.6100.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo2011-112.646.2%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan2002-701.210.3%
Group LPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England2110+246.8100.0%
🇬🇭Ghana2110+144.6100.0%
🇭🇷Croatia2101-135.297.8%
🇵🇦Panama2002-200.10.0%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

TeamGrpRatingLast 32Last 16QuartersSemisFinalChampion
🇪🇸SpainH2113100.0%85.6%65.3%54.6%36.1%22.6%
🇦🇷ArgentinaJ2068100.0%92.1%75.9%56.9%32.3%18.0%
🇫🇷FranceI2093100.0%90.1%64.5%46.2%30.2%17.7%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandL2069100.0%87.6%67.9%46.5%27.3%15.1%
🇵🇹PortugalK1996100.0%76.8%43.6%22.2%10.2%4.4%
🇩🇪GermanyE1988100.0%83.8%34.8%20.4%9.6%4.2%
🇳🇱NetherlandsF1992100.0%61.4%44.0%20.1%9.5%4.0%
🇧🇷BrazilC1988100.0%62.7%37.7%17.6%7.8%3.1%
🇳🇴NorwayI1951100.0%71.9%36.4%16.0%6.0%2.1%
🇨🇴ColombiaK1926100.0%69.8%34.5%13.4%4.6%1.6%
🇺🇸United StatesD1856100.0%77.7%48.2%13.9%4.9%1.5%
🇧🇪BelgiumG193496.5%73.1%28.8%12.5%4.5%1.4%
🇲🇦MoroccoC1910100.0%45.7%24.9%8.2%2.7%0.8%
🇨🇭SwitzerlandB1887100.0%71.2%28.9%7.9%2.4%0.7%
🇲🇽MexicoA1841100.0%60.6%17.4%6.8%2.1%0.6%
🇭🇷CroatiaL189597.8%39.8%15.5%6.2%2.1%0.6%
🇯🇵JapanF1864100.0%37.8%14.3%4.0%1.2%0.3%
🇨🇦CanadaB1797100.0%64.5%21.5%4.8%1.2%0.3%
🇸🇳SenegalI186778.5%37.0%16.0%4.2%1.2%0.2%
🇺🇾UruguayH189436.5%17.3%8.1%3.2%0.9%0.2%
🇪🇨EcuadorE188824.6%12.1%5.6%1.9%0.6%0.2%
🇨🇮Ivory CoastE183198.6%26.5%9.0%2.0%0.5%0.1%
🇦🇹AustriaJ182594.8%23.1%8.9%2.6%0.6%0.1%
🇸🇪SwedenF181195.7%29.2%8.6%2.1%0.5%<0.1%
🇩🇿AlgeriaJ180483.8%24.1%8.8%1.8%0.3%<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandC176782.2%17.6%3.3%0.7%<0.1%<0.1%
🇵🇾ParaguayD174687.2%21.5%2.4%0.6%0.1%<0.1%
🇦🇺AustraliaD170890.8%22.5%1.9%0.4%<0.1%<0.1%
🇬🇭GhanaL1682100.0%12.6%2.7%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%
🇿🇦South AfricaA153412.8%1.3%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇰🇷South KoreaA175795.7%31.0%7.0%0.9%<0.1%0.0%
🇨🇿Czech RepublicA174521.5%8.1%2.1%0.3%<0.1%0.0%
🇶🇦QatarB142112.3%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaB165768.8%8.9%2.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇭🇹HaitiC15600.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇹🇷TurkeyD19110.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇼CuracaoE14484.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇹🇳TunisiaF16010.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇪🇬EgyptG1707100.0%33.0%6.6%0.7%<0.1%0.0%
🇮🇷IranG163755.0%12.9%1.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇳🇿New ZealandG15193.5%0.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇻Cape VerdeH157666.6%2.2%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaH155433.8%1.1%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇶IraqI15162.7%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇯🇴JordanJ15330.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇺🇿UzbekistanK166910.3%0.7%0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇩DR CongoK171646.2%3.9%0.9%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%
🇵🇦PanamaL15900.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.