⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Monday, June 22 2026 at 2:31 PM

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L

-$217.71

after $0.80 costs

Realized

-$216.91

20 settled

At risk

$91.35

4 open

ROI

-30.8%

on settled stake

Record

5–15

W–L

Match winner · -13% ROI · CLV -8% (12)Over/Under · -41% ROI · CLV – (5)Both teams to score · -100% ROI · CLV +8% (3)

Match	Bet	Our Prob	Kalshi Prob	Net Edge	Cost	Status	P&L
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	45%	23¢	+15.9%	$13.12	Placed	–
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$39.56	Placed	–
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇶🇦Qatar	21%	13¢	+3.7%	$12.61	Placed	–
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Draw	27%	13¢	+10.5%	$26.06	Placed	–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$74.40	Won	+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	17¢	+4.4%	$28.56	Lost	-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	22%	13¢	+4.9%	$15.86	Lost	-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	30%	18¢	+6.0%	$74.95	Lost	-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	20%	13¢	+3.0%	$17.03	Lost	-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	89%	80¢	+3.2%	$8.00	Won	+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	16%	5¢	+6.8%	$0.10	Lost	-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	75%	46¢	+23.0%	$58.88	Lost	-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	20%	10¢	+5.5%	$15.46	Lost	-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	44%	25¢	+12.6%	$25.04	Lost	-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	18%	10¢	+4.3%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	89%	78¢	+5.3%	$67.08	Won	+18.92
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both score	60%	48¢	+6.5%	$32.64	Lost	-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19.84	Lost	-19.84
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 2.5 goals	62%	43¢	+12.9%	$42.45	Lost	-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Both score	19%	10¢	+5.2%	$14.52	Lost	-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	90%	68¢	+15.5%	$38.08	Won	+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 4.5 goals	43%	16¢	+23.4%	$34.24	Lost	-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	86¢	+10.0%	$74.72	Won	+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	🇳🇿New Zealand	26%	16¢	+6.2%	$47.42	Lost	-47.42

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 14 graded

Accuracy 64% ±25% · always-favorite baseline 43% · Brier 0.568 (base-rate 0.653) · skill +13.1% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 14 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~36 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 22, 1:00 PM

🇦🇷Argentina

1.7 – 0.5projected goals

🇦🇹Austria

Argentina 71% · draw 19% · Austria 10%total 2.2 goals

Bookmakers: Argentina 67% · draw 21% · Austria 12%

Group stageJun 22, 5:00 PM

🇫🇷France

1.7 – 0.6projected goals

🇮🇶Iraq

France 80% · draw 13% · Iraq 7%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: France 91% · draw 6% · Iraq 2%

Group stageJun 22, 8:00 PM

🇳🇴Norway

1.3 – 1.4projected goals

🇸🇳Senegal

Norway 41% · draw 25% · Senegal 34%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Norway 44% · draw 28% · Senegal 29%

Group stageJun 22, 11:00 PM

🇯🇴Jordan

1.1 – 2.3projected goals

🇩🇿Algeria

Jordan 12% · draw 17% · Algeria 71%total 3.3 goals

Bookmakers: Jordan 14% · draw 22% · Algeria 64%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 23, 1:00 PM

🇵🇹Portugal

1.6 – 0.8projected goals

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

Portugal 71% · draw 18% · Uzbekistan 11%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Portugal 83% · draw 12% · Uzbekistan 5%

Group stageJun 23, 4:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

1.8 – 0.6projected goals

🇬🇭Ghana

England 80% · draw 13% · Ghana 6%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: England 81% · draw 13% · Ghana 6%

Group stageJun 23, 7:00 PM

🇵🇦Panama

1.1 – 1.8projected goals

🇭🇷Croatia

Panama 14% · draw 17% · Croatia 68%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Panama 13% · draw 22% · Croatia 64%

Group stageJun 23, 10:00 PM

🇨🇴Colombia

1.5 – 0.8projected goals

🇨🇩DR Congo

Colombia 63% · draw 22% · DR Congo 15%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Colombia 65% · draw 22% · DR Congo 13%

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇨🇭Switzerland

1.2 – 1.2projected goals

🇨🇦Canada

Switzerland 41% · draw 26% · Canada 33%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Switzerland 39% · draw 31% · Canada 29%

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina

1.5 – 1.2projected goals

🇶🇦Qatar

Bosnia and Herzegovina 60% · draw 20% · Qatar 19%total 2.7 goals

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🇲🇦Morocco

1.9 – 0.7projected goals

🇭🇹Haiti

Morocco 78% · draw 14% · Haiti 7%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Morocco 84% · draw 12% · Haiti 5%

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland

0.9 – 2.3projected goals

🇧🇷Brazil

Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Scotland 11% · draw 18% · Brazil 71%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇨🇿Czech Republic

1.0 – 1.7projected goals

🇲🇽Mexico

Czech Republic 19% · draw 22% · Mexico 59%total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Czech Republic 25% · draw 24% · Mexico 51%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇿🇦South Africa

0.8 – 1.5projected goals

🇰🇷South Korea

South Africa 15% · draw 21% · South Korea 64%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: South Africa 16% · draw 24% · South Korea 60%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇪🇨Ecuador

1.2 – 1.0projected goals

🇩🇪Germany

Ecuador 32% · draw 26% · Germany 42%total 2.1 goals

Bookmakers: Ecuador 26% · draw 24% · Germany 50%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇨🇼Curacao

0.6 – 2.1projected goals

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

Curacao 5% · draw 12% · Ivory Coast 83%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Curacao 4% · draw 10% · Ivory Coast 86%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2110	24.8%	14.1%
🇫🇷France	2088	17.5%	19.2%
🇦🇷Argentina	2058	16.5%	11.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2065	13.7%	12.8%
🇩🇪Germany	1986	4.3%	5.6%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1990	4.0%	4.9%
🇧🇷Brazil	1986	3.6%	5.8%
🇵🇹Portugal	1983	3.5%	7.3%
🇧🇪Belgium	1933	2.1%	1.4%
🇳🇴Norway	1938	1.9%	2.1%
🇺🇸United States	1855	1.6%	2.5%
🇨🇴Colombia	1920	1.6%	1.6%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 21, 9:00 PM	🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM	🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	4–0
Jun 21, 12:00 AM	🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	0–4
Jun 20, 8:00 PM	🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	0–0
Jun 20, 4:00 PM	🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2–1
Jun 20, 1:00 PM	🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	5–1
Jun 19, 11:00 PM	🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	0–1
Jun 19, 8:30 PM	🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	3–0
Jun 19, 6:00 PM	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	0–1
Jun 19, 3:00 PM	🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	2–0

Groups

Group A	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	2	2	0	0	+3	6	7.9	100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.2	95.6%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	2	0	1	1	-1	1	1.8	22.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.6	13.1%

Group B	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇦Canada	2	1	1	0	+6	4	5.2	100.0%
🇨🇭Switzerland	2	1	1	0	+3	4	5.5	100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	0	1	1	-3	1	3.3	69.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.6	12.3%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	2	1	1	0	+3	4	6.2	100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	2	1	1	0	+1	4	6.6	100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	2	1	0	1	+0	3	3.6	84.9%
🇭🇹Haiti	2	0	0	2	-4	0	0.3	0.0%

Group D	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	2	2	0	+5	6	7.4	100.0%
🇦🇺Australia	2	1	1	+0	3	4.2	92.9%
🇵🇾Paraguay	2	1	1	-2	3	4.5	88.1%
🇹🇷Turkey	2	0	2	-3	0	1.4	0.0%

Group E	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	2	2	0	0	+7	6	7.8	100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.7	98.3%
🇪🇨Ecuador	2	0	1	1	-1	1	2.0	25.8%
🇨🇼Curacao	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.2	4.6%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇱Netherlands	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.7	100.0%
🇯🇵Japan	2	1	1	0	+4	4	5.6	100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden	2	1	0	1	+0	3	4.2	96.2%
🇹🇳Tunisia	2	0	0	2	-8	0	0.2	0.0%

Group G	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇬Egypt	2	1	1	0	+2	4	5.6	100.0%
🇮🇷Iran	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.1	57.4%
🇧🇪Belgium	2	0	2	0	+0	2	4.7	96.9%
🇳🇿New Zealand	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.2	3.2%

Group H	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.2	100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	2	0	2	0	+0	2	2.6	37.5%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.4	66.9%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	2	0	1	1	-4	1	2.3	33.9%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇴Norway	1	1	0	+3	3	5.4	99.0%
🇫🇷France	1	1	0	+2	3	7.9	99.9%
🇸🇳Senegal	1	0	1	-2	0	3.7	83.7%
🇮🇶Iraq	1	0	1	-3	0	0.3	2.6%

Group J	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	1	1	0	+3	3	8.1	100.0%
🇦🇹Austria	1	1	0	+2	3	5.1	96.8%
🇯🇴Jordan	1	0	1	-2	0	0.6	7.0%
🇩🇿Algeria	1	0	1	-3	0	3.4	68.9%

Group K	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇴Colombia	1	1	0	0	+2	3	6.3	98.9%
🇵🇹Portugal	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.1	91.8%
🇨🇩DR Congo	1	0	1	0	+0	1	3.2	59.1%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	1	0	0	1	-2	0	1.5	24.8%

Group L	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	1	1	0	+2	3	8.4	99.9%
🇬🇭Ghana	1	1	0	+1	3	3.9	74.2%
🇵🇦Panama	1	0	1	-1	0	0.6	6.4%
🇭🇷Croatia	1	0	1	-2	0	4.5	88.5%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2110	100.0%	82.7%	66.5%	54.8%	38.3%	24.8%
🇫🇷France	I	2088	99.9%	88.8%	63.6%	46.4%	30.7%	17.5%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2058	100.0%	86.9%	71.3%	53.2%	29.6%	16.5%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2065	99.9%	83.7%	63.9%	43.8%	25.2%	13.7%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1986	100.0%	83.4%	34.9%	20.8%	10.2%	4.3%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1990	100.0%	61.6%	43.3%	19.5%	9.2%	4.0%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	1986	100.0%	62.5%	38.8%	18.5%	8.6%	3.6%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1983	91.8%	65.4%	36.8%	19.1%	8.7%	3.5%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1933	96.9%	72.9%	31.0%	14.7%	5.7%	2.1%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1938	99.0%	67.1%	34.3%	14.7%	5.4%	1.9%
🇺🇸United States	D	1855	100.0%	76.2%	46.2%	13.5%	4.9%	1.6%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1920	98.9%	64.6%	33.4%	12.9%	4.5%	1.6%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1908	100.0%	45.9%	25.3%	8.2%	2.8%	0.8%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1886	100.0%	70.5%	30.5%	9.1%	3.0%	0.8%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1877	83.7%	44.7%	20.2%	5.9%	1.7%	0.5%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1882	88.5%	41.5%	12.2%	5.5%	1.9%	0.5%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1841	100.0%	60.9%	17.6%	7.0%	2.2%	0.5%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1864	100.0%	37.2%	15.6%	4.6%	1.3%	0.3%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1797	100.0%	64.5%	24.1%	6.0%	1.4%	0.3%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1893	37.5%	17.8%	8.4%	3.4%	1.1%	0.3%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1829	98.3%	31.3%	10.7%	2.7%	0.6%	0.2%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1887	25.8%	12.9%	6.0%	1.9%	0.6%	0.2%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1832	96.8%	29.7%	13.3%	4.2%	0.8%	0.1%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1810	96.2%	28.6%	8.8%	2.1%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1787	68.9%	19.3%	6.8%	1.5%	0.3%	<0.1%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1757	95.6%	30.9%	7.1%	1.0%	0.1%	<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1767	84.9%	19.2%	3.6%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1708	100.0%	34.2%	7.4%	1.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1746	88.1%	23.0%	3.5%	0.9%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1535	13.1%	1.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1745	22.1%	8.0%	2.1%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1424	12.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1658	69.0%	9.1%	2.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1562	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1710	92.9%	23.3%	2.9%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1909	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1451	4.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1602	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1640	57.4%	13.1%	1.4%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1521	3.2%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1578	66.9%	3.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1557	33.9%	1.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1522	2.6%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1554	7.0%	0.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1681	24.8%	3.1%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1721	59.1%	12.5%	2.2%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1684	74.2%	14.2%	2.7%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1604	6.4%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.