⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Friday, June 26 2026 at 1:38 AM

⚠️ Dead-rubber goal dampening applied: Panama (eliminated), Jordan (eliminated), Argentina (clinched).

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L

-$359.15

after $4.93 costs

Realized

-$354.22

50 settled

At risk

$0.00

0 open

ROI

-24.4%

on settled stake

Record

13–37

W–L

Match winner · -19% ROI · CLV -11% (22)Over/Under · -23% ROI · CLV – (17)Both teams to score · -43% ROI · CLV +8% (11)

Match	Bet	Our Prob	Kalshi Prob	Net Edge	Cost	Status	P&L
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$74.40	Won	+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	17¢	+4.4%	$28.56	Lost	-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	22%	13¢	+4.9%	$15.86	Lost	-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	30%	18¢	+6.0%	$74.95	Lost	-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	20%	13¢	+3.0%	$17.03	Lost	-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	89%	80¢	+3.2%	$8.00	Won	+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	16%	5¢	+6.8%	$0.10	Lost	-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	75%	46¢	+23.0%	$58.88	Lost	-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	20%	10¢	+5.5%	$15.46	Lost	-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	44%	25¢	+12.6%	$25.04	Lost	-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	18%	10¢	+4.3%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	89%	78¢	+5.3%	$67.08	Won	+18.92
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$39.56	Won	+46.44
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both score	60%	48¢	+6.5%	$32.64	Lost	-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19.84	Lost	-19.84
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇶🇦Qatar	21%	13¢	+3.7%	$12.61	Lost	-12.61
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 2.5 goals	62%	43¢	+12.9%	$42.45	Lost	-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Both score	19%	10¢	+5.2%	$14.52	Lost	-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	90%	68¢	+15.5%	$38.08	Won	+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 4.5 goals	43%	16¢	+23.4%	$34.24	Lost	-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	86¢	+10.0%	$74.72	Won	+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	🇳🇿New Zealand	26%	16¢	+6.2%	$47.42	Lost	-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Draw	27%	13¢	+10.5%	$26.06	Lost	-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	51%	41¢	+4.1%	$13.12	Lost	-13.12
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Over 3.5 goals	45%	27¢	+11.8%	$18.36	Lost	-18.36
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Both score	33%	21¢	+5.5%	$15.98	Lost	-15.98
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	🇳🇴Norway	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$56.36	Won	+36.64
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	🇯🇴Jordan	27%	14¢	+8.8%	$39.99	Lost	-39.99
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Over 2.5 goals	55%	34¢	+14.8%	$22.78	Won	+44.22
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	Both score	33%	20¢	+6.7%	$26.41	Lost	-26.41
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭Ghana	Over 2.5 goals	55%	35¢	+14.3%	$19.95	Lost	-19.95
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	🇭🇷Croatia	68%	51¢	+11.4%	$29.58	Won	+28.42
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Both score	42%	27¢	+8.9%	$22.53	Lost	-22.53
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Over 2.5 goals	56%	27¢	+23.0%	$29.16	Lost	-29.16
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Over 1.5 goals	62%	45¢	+10.9%	$28.65	Lost	-28.65
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Both score	32%	20¢	+5.7%	$16.70	Lost	-16.70
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	🇨🇴Colombia	65%	43¢	+15.6%	$24.94	Won	+33.06
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇨🇦Canada	Over 2.5 goals	43%	27¢	+10.3%	$21.98	Won	+68.02
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇨🇦Canada	Both score	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$11.25	Won	+33.75
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇧🇷Brazil	Both score	52%	40¢	+5.9%	$15.20	Lost	-15.20
🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇲🇽Mexico	Over 2.5 goals	50%	29¢	+14.6%	$31.30	Won	+84.70
🇿🇦South Africa vs 🇰🇷South Korea	Over 2.5 goals	42%	27¢	+8.9%	$24.66	Lost	-24.66
🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇲🇽Mexico	Both score	38%	24¢	+7.8%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇩🇪Germany	🇩🇪Germany	55%	31¢	+17.8%	$36.58	Lost	-36.58
🇨🇼Curacao vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	Over 3.5 goals	39%	23¢	+10.4%	$27.87	Lost	-27.87
🇯🇵Japan vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	54%	25¢	+23.0%	$34.75	Lost	-34.75
🇯🇵Japan vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇯🇵Japan	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$25.37	Lost	-25.37
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇺🇸United States	🇺🇸United States	41%	21¢	+14.2%	$19.11	Lost	-19.11
🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇦🇺Australia	Over 0.5 goals	66%	50¢	+10.2%	$28.07	Lost	-28.07
🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇵🇾Paraguay	32%	17¢	+11.3%	$16.79	Lost	-16.79

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in). Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 34 graded

Accuracy 71% ±15% · always-favorite baseline 50% · Brier 0.476 (base-rate 0.621) · skill +23.3% · 12 pending

⚠️ Only 34 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~16 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM

🇳🇴Norway

1.3 – 1.7projected goals

🇫🇷France

Norway 24% · draw 22% · France 54%total 3.0 goals

Bookmakers: Norway 18% · draw 20% · France 62%

Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM

🇸🇳Senegal

1.7 – 0.8projected goals

🇮🇶Iraq

Senegal 76% · draw 15% · Iraq 9%total 2.5 goals

Bookmakers: Senegal 80% · draw 13% · Iraq 6%

Group stageJun 26, 8:00 PM

🇺🇾Uruguay

0.9 – 1.4projected goals

🇪🇸Spain

Uruguay 17% · draw 22% · Spain 61%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Uruguay 12% · draw 23% · Spain 66%

Group stageJun 26, 8:00 PM

🇨🇻Cape Verde

1.1 – 1.2projected goals

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

Cape Verde 37% · draw 27% · Saudi Arabia 36%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Cape Verde 37% · draw 28% · Saudi Arabia 35%

Group stageJun 26, 11:00 PM

🇳🇿New Zealand

1.0 – 2.1projected goals

🇧🇪Belgium

New Zealand 8% · draw 12% · Belgium 80%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: New Zealand 5% · draw 11% · Belgium 84%

Group stageJun 26, 11:00 PM

🇪🇬Egypt

1.0 – 1.3projected goals

🇮🇷Iran

Egypt 39% · draw 26% · Iran 35%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Egypt 39% · draw 37% · Iran 24%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 27, 5:00 PM

🇵🇦Panama

0.6 – 2.1projected goals

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

Panama 6% · draw 12% · England 82%total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Panama 5% · draw 10% · England 85%

Group stageJun 27, 5:00 PM

🇭🇷Croatia

1.6 – 0.9projected goals

🇬🇭Ghana

Croatia 64% · draw 21% · Ghana 16%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Croatia 55% · draw 29% · Ghana 16%

Group stageJun 27, 7:30 PM

🇨🇴Colombia

1.5 – 1.4projected goals

🇵🇹Portugal

Colombia 33% · draw 24% · Portugal 42%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Colombia 22% · draw 25% · Portugal 53%

Group stageJun 27, 7:30 PM

🇨🇩DR Congo

1.0 – 0.8projected goals

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

DR Congo 42% · draw 29% · Uzbekistan 29%total 1.8 goals

Bookmakers: DR Congo 56% · draw 22% · Uzbekistan 21%

Group stageJun 27, 10:00 PM

🇯🇴Jordan

0.4 – 2.4projected goals

🇦🇷Argentina

Jordan 3% · draw 9% · Argentina 88%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Jordan 5% · draw 11% · Argentina 84%

Group stageJun 27, 10:00 PM

🇩🇿Algeria

1.5 – 1.1projected goals

🇦🇹Austria

Algeria 41% · draw 25% · Austria 34%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Algeria 24% · draw 43% · Austria 33%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2115	22.9%	13.9%
🇫🇷France	2095	18.7%	18.0%
🇦🇷Argentina	2069	17.3%	12.7%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2071	13.6%	11.3%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1997	4.7%	6.1%
🇵🇹Portugal	1998	4.7%	7.8%
🇧🇷Brazil	2003	4.2%	6.1%
🇩🇪Germany	1972	2.9%	4.7%
🇳🇴Norway	1952	2.0%	2.6%
🇧🇪Belgium	1935	1.7%	1.4%
🇨🇴Colombia	1926	1.6%	1.4%
🇺🇸United States	1843	1.1%	2.6%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 25, 10:00 PM	🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇦🇺Australia	0–0
Jun 25, 10:00 PM	🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇺🇸United States	3–2
Jun 25, 7:00 PM	🇯🇵Japan vs 🇸🇪Sweden	1–1
Jun 25, 7:00 PM	🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇳🇱Netherlands	1–3
Jun 25, 4:00 PM	🇨🇼Curacao vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	0–2
Jun 25, 4:00 PM	🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇩🇪Germany	2–1
Jun 24, 9:00 PM	🇿🇦South Africa vs 🇰🇷South Korea	1–0
Jun 24, 9:00 PM	🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇲🇽Mexico	0–3
Jun 24, 6:00 PM	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇧🇷Brazil	0–3
Jun 24, 6:00 PM	🇲🇦Morocco vs 🇭🇹Haiti	4–2
Jun 24, 3:00 PM	🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	3–1
Jun 24, 3:00 PM	🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇨🇦Canada	2–1

Groups

Group A	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	3	3	0	0	+6	9	9.0	100.0%
🇿🇦South Africa	3	1	1	1	-1	4	4.0	100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	3	1	0	2	-1	3	3.0	58.9%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	3	0	1	2	-4	1	1.0	0.0%

Group B	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇭Switzerland	3	2	1	0	+4	7	7.0	100.0%
🇨🇦Canada	3	1	1	1	+5	4	4.0	100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	-1	4	4.0	100.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	3	0	1	2	-8	1	1.0	0.0%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	3	2	1	0	+6	7	7.0	100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	3	2	1	0	+3	7	7.0	100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	3	1	0	2	-3	3	3.0	7.4%
🇭🇹Haiti	3	0	0	3	-6	0	0.0	0.0%

Group D	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	3	2	0	1	+4	6	6.0	100.0%
🇦🇺Australia	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇵🇾Paraguay	3	1	1	1	-2	4	4.0	99.9%
🇹🇷Turkey	3	1	0	2	-2	3	3.0	0.0%

Group E	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	3	2	0	1	+6	6	6.0	100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	+2	6	6.0	100.0%
🇪🇨Ecuador	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	3	0	1	2	-8	1	1.0	0.0%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇱Netherlands	3	2	1	0	+6	7	7.0	100.0%
🇯🇵Japan	3	1	2	0	+4	5	5.0	100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	3	0	0	3	-10	0	0.0	0.0%

Group G	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇬Egypt	2	1	1	0	+2	4	5.6	100.0%
🇮🇷Iran	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.1	51.2%
🇧🇪Belgium	2	0	2	0	+0	2	4.7	96.2%
🇳🇿New Zealand	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.2	3.4%

Group H	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.2	100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	2	0	2	0	+0	2	2.6	31.4%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.5	65.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	2	0	1	1	-4	1	2.3	33.8%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇫🇷France	2	2	0	+5	6	7.9	100.0%
🇳🇴Norway	2	2	0	+4	6	6.8	100.0%
🇸🇳Senegal	2	0	2	-3	0	2.6	66.7%
🇮🇶Iraq	2	0	2	-6	0	0.3	0.1%

Group J	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	2	2	0	+5	6	8.9	100.0%
🇦🇹Austria	2	1	1	+0	3	4.5	84.0%
🇩🇿Algeria	2	1	1	-2	3	4.3	66.3%
🇯🇴Jordan	2	0	2	-3	0	0.1	0.0%

Group K	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇴Colombia	2	2	0	0	+3	6	7.1	100.0%
🇵🇹Portugal	2	1	1	0	+5	4	5.7	100.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	2	0	1	1	-1	1	2.6	43.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	2	0	0	2	-7	0	1.2	0.3%

Group L	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2	1	1	0	+2	4	6.8	100.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	2	1	1	0	+1	4	4.6	100.0%
🇭🇷Croatia	2	1	0	1	-1	3	5.2	92.3%
🇵🇦Panama	2	0	0	2	-2	0	0.1	0.0%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2115	100.0%	85.9%	65.6%	55.1%	37.0%	22.9%
🇫🇷France	I	2095	100.0%	89.9%	66.2%	48.0%	31.6%	18.7%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2069	100.0%	92.5%	76.8%	55.7%	31.6%	17.3%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2071	100.0%	85.1%	64.2%	42.4%	25.3%	13.6%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1997	100.0%	64.3%	50.5%	22.6%	10.6%	4.7%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1998	100.0%	77.6%	43.5%	22.8%	10.5%	4.7%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	2003	100.0%	71.5%	42.8%	20.8%	9.8%	4.2%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1972	100.0%	84.0%	31.9%	17.7%	7.2%	2.9%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1952	100.0%	70.6%	34.4%	15.5%	5.4%	2.0%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1935	96.2%	73.8%	29.5%	12.5%	4.6%	1.7%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1926	100.0%	71.1%	33.3%	13.1%	4.4%	1.6%
🇺🇸United States	D	1843	100.0%	77.6%	47.4%	12.8%	3.9%	1.1%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1900	100.0%	66.9%	29.6%	8.4%	2.7%	0.9%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1916	100.0%	35.7%	23.6%	7.6%	2.6%	0.8%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1906	100.0%	48.2%	21.7%	7.5%	2.5%	0.7%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1851	100.0%	56.8%	17.9%	6.6%	2.4%	0.6%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1895	92.3%	36.1%	12.4%	5.3%	2.0%	0.4%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1785	100.0%	87.5%	25.4%	5.5%	1.3%	0.2%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1895	31.4%	14.2%	6.2%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1868	66.7%	28.7%	11.1%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1873	100.0%	28.5%	11.4%	3.6%	1.1%	0.2%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1838	100.0%	28.4%	8.2%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1804	100.0%	26.7%	7.3%	1.6%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1825	84.0%	17.5%	6.0%	2.0%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1804	66.3%	15.7%	5.5%	1.6%	0.3%	<0.1%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1731	58.9%	23.4%	6.8%	0.8%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1557	100.0%	12.5%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1735	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1410	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1665	100.0%	15.1%	3.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1553	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1753	7.4%	1.5%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1732	99.9%	12.6%	2.1%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1721	100.0%	34.2%	2.6%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1925	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1440	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1596	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1707	100.0%	34.8%	7.7%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1635	51.2%	12.0%	1.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1517	3.4%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1575	65.0%	1.8%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1553	33.8%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1514	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1531	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1668	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1715	43.0%	3.2%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1682	100.0%	12.7%	2.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1588	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.