⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Tuesday, June 23 2026 at 2:31 PM

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Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L

-$204.12

after $1.00 costs

Realized

-$203.12

28 settled

At risk

$12.61

1 open

ROI

-21.7%

on settled stake

Record

8–20

W–L

Match winner · -16% ROI · CLV -11% (15)Over/Under · -29% ROI · CLV – (8)Both teams to score · -30% ROI · CLV +8% (5)

Match	Bet	Our Prob	Kalshi Prob	Net Edge	Cost	Status	P&L
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇶🇦Qatar	21%	13¢	+3.7%	$12.61	Placed	–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$74.40	Won	+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	17¢	+4.4%	$28.56	Lost	-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	22%	13¢	+4.9%	$15.86	Lost	-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	30%	18¢	+6.0%	$74.95	Lost	-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	20%	13¢	+3.0%	$17.03	Lost	-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	89%	80¢	+3.2%	$8.00	Won	+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	16%	5¢	+6.8%	$0.10	Lost	-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	75%	46¢	+23.0%	$58.88	Lost	-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	20%	10¢	+5.5%	$15.46	Lost	-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	44%	25¢	+12.6%	$25.04	Lost	-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	18%	10¢	+4.3%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	89%	78¢	+5.3%	$67.08	Won	+18.92
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$39.56	Won	+46.44
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both score	60%	48¢	+6.5%	$32.64	Lost	-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19.84	Lost	-19.84
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 2.5 goals	62%	43¢	+12.9%	$42.45	Lost	-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Both score	19%	10¢	+5.2%	$14.52	Lost	-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	90%	68¢	+15.5%	$38.08	Won	+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 4.5 goals	43%	16¢	+23.4%	$34.24	Lost	-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	86¢	+10.0%	$74.72	Won	+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	🇳🇿New Zealand	26%	16¢	+6.2%	$47.42	Lost	-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Draw	27%	13¢	+10.5%	$26.06	Lost	-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	51%	41¢	+4.1%	$13.12	Lost	-13.12
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Over 3.5 goals	45%	27¢	+11.8%	$18.36	Lost	-18.36
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Both score	33%	21¢	+5.5%	$15.98	Lost	-15.98
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	🇳🇴Norway	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$56.36	Won	+36.64
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	🇯🇴Jordan	27%	14¢	+8.8%	$39.99	Lost	-39.99
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Over 2.5 goals	55%	34¢	+14.8%	$22.78	Won	+44.22

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 18 graded

Accuracy 72% ±21% · always-favorite baseline 50% · Brier 0.487 (base-rate 0.623) · skill +21.9% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 18 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~32 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 23, 1:00 PM

🇵🇹Portugal

1.6 – 0.8projected goals

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

Portugal 71% · draw 18% · Uzbekistan 11%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Portugal 97% · draw 2% · Uzbekistan 0%

Group stageJun 23, 4:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

1.8 – 0.6projected goals

🇬🇭Ghana

England 80% · draw 13% · Ghana 6%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: England 83% · draw 12% · Ghana 5%

Group stageJun 23, 7:00 PM

🇵🇦Panama

1.1 – 1.8projected goals

🇭🇷Croatia

Panama 14% · draw 17% · Croatia 69%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Panama 13% · draw 21% · Croatia 67%

Group stageJun 23, 10:00 PM

🇨🇴Colombia

1.5 – 0.8projected goals

🇨🇩DR Congo

Colombia 63% · draw 22% · DR Congo 15%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Colombia 64% · draw 23% · DR Congo 13%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇨🇭Switzerland

1.2 – 1.2projected goals

🇨🇦Canada

Switzerland 41% · draw 26% · Canada 33%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Switzerland 41% · draw 31% · Canada 28%

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina

1.5 – 1.2projected goals

🇶🇦Qatar

Bosnia and Herzegovina 60% · draw 20% · Qatar 19%total 2.7 goals

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🇲🇦Morocco

1.9 – 0.7projected goals

🇭🇹Haiti

Morocco 78% · draw 14% · Haiti 7%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Morocco 85% · draw 11% · Haiti 4%

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland

0.9 – 2.3projected goals

🇧🇷Brazil

Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇨🇿Czech Republic

1.0 – 1.7projected goals

🇲🇽Mexico

Czech Republic 19% · draw 22% · Mexico 59%total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Czech Republic 25% · draw 24% · Mexico 50%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇿🇦South Africa

0.8 – 1.5projected goals

🇰🇷South Korea

South Africa 15% · draw 21% · South Korea 64%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: South Africa 17% · draw 25% · South Korea 58%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇪🇨Ecuador

1.2 – 1.0projected goals

🇩🇪Germany

Ecuador 32% · draw 26% · Germany 42%total 2.1 goals

Bookmakers: Ecuador 25% · draw 23% · Germany 51%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇨🇼Curacao

0.6 – 2.1projected goals

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

Curacao 5% · draw 12% · Ivory Coast 83%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Curacao 4% · draw 10% · Ivory Coast 86%

Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM

🇹🇳Tunisia

0.9 – 1.8projected goals

🇳🇱Netherlands

Tunisia 9% · draw 14% · Netherlands 77%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Tunisia 3% · draw 9% · Netherlands 88%

Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM

🇯🇵Japan

2.4 – 0.9projected goals

🇸🇪Sweden

Japan 61% · draw 20% · Sweden 19%total 3.3 goals

Bookmakers: Japan 51% · draw 27% · Sweden 22%

Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM

🇹🇷Turkey

1.7 – 1.4projected goals

🇺🇸United States

Turkey 42% · draw 24% · United States 34%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Turkey 27% · draw 23% · United States 51%

Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM

🇵🇾Paraguay

0.9 – 1.1projected goals

🇦🇺Australia

Paraguay 36% · draw 28% · Australia 36%total 2.0 goals

Bookmakers: Paraguay 33% · draw 43% · Australia 24%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2111	24.3%	14.2%
🇫🇷France	2092	18.8%	18.2%
🇦🇷Argentina	2067	17.9%	12.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2066	14.1%	12.6%
🇩🇪Germany	1987	3.7%	5.6%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1991	3.6%	5.2%
🇵🇹Portugal	1984	3.4%	7.7%
🇧🇷Brazil	1987	3.3%	5.1%
🇳🇴Norway	1950	2.1%	2.6%
🇺🇸United States	1855	1.5%	2.4%
🇧🇪Belgium	1933	1.4%	1.5%
🇨🇴Colombia	1921	1.3%	1.5%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 22, 11:00 PM	🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	1–2
Jun 22, 8:00 PM	🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	3–2
Jun 22, 5:00 PM	🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	3–0
Jun 22, 1:00 PM	🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	2–0
Jun 21, 9:00 PM	🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM	🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	4–0
Jun 21, 12:00 AM	🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	0–4
Jun 20, 8:00 PM	🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	0–0
Jun 20, 4:00 PM	🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2–1
Jun 20, 1:00 PM	🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	5–1

Groups

Group A	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	2	2	0	0	+3	6	8.0	100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.2	95.6%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	2	0	1	1	-1	1	1.8	21.2%
🇿🇦South Africa	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.6	13.5%

Group B	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇦Canada	2	1	1	0	+6	4	5.2	100.0%
🇨🇭Switzerland	2	1	1	0	+3	4	5.5	100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	0	1	1	-3	1	3.3	69.3%
🇶🇦Qatar	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.5	11.6%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	2	1	1	0	+3	4	6.2	100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	2	1	1	0	+1	4	6.6	100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	2	1	0	1	+0	3	3.6	84.1%
🇭🇹Haiti	2	0	0	2	-4	0	0.3	0.0%

Group D	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	2	2	0	+5	6	7.4	100.0%
🇦🇺Australia	2	1	1	+0	3	4.2	93.0%
🇵🇾Paraguay	2	1	1	-2	3	4.5	88.4%
🇹🇷Turkey	2	0	2	-3	0	1.4	0.0%

Group E	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	2	2	0	0	+7	6	7.8	100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.6	98.5%
🇪🇨Ecuador	2	0	1	1	-1	1	2.0	24.9%
🇨🇼Curacao	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.2	4.6%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇱Netherlands	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.7	100.0%
🇯🇵Japan	2	1	1	0	+4	4	5.6	100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden	2	1	0	1	+0	3	4.2	96.6%
🇹🇳Tunisia	2	0	0	2	-8	0	0.2	0.0%

Group G	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇬Egypt	2	1	1	0	+2	4	5.7	100.0%
🇮🇷Iran	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.1	55.6%
🇧🇪Belgium	2	0	2	0	+0	2	4.7	96.6%
🇳🇿New Zealand	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.2	3.5%

Group H	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.2	100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	2	0	2	0	+0	2	2.6	36.5%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.4	66.9%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	2	0	1	1	-4	1	2.3	33.9%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇫🇷France	2	2	0	+5	6	8.0	100.0%
🇳🇴Norway	2	2	0	+4	6	6.8	100.0%
🇸🇳Senegal	2	0	2	-3	0	2.6	80.1%
🇮🇶Iraq	2	0	2	-6	0	0.3	2.6%

Group J	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	2	2	0	+5	6	8.9	100.0%
🇦🇹Austria	2	1	1	+0	3	4.5	95.8%
🇩🇿Algeria	2	1	1	-2	3	4.3	85.4%
🇯🇴Jordan	2	0	2	-3	0	0.1	0.0%

Group K	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇴Colombia	1	1	0	0	+2	3	6.3	98.9%
🇵🇹Portugal	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.1	92.2%
🇨🇩DR Congo	1	0	1	0	+0	1	3.2	57.4%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	1	0	0	1	-2	0	1.6	25.4%

Group L	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	1	1	0	+2	3	8.5	99.9%
🇬🇭Ghana	1	1	0	+1	3	3.9	72.3%
🇵🇦Panama	1	0	1	-1	0	0.6	6.4%
🇭🇷Croatia	1	0	1	-2	0	4.6	89.2%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2111	100.0%	86.2%	68.8%	57.5%	38.6%	24.3%
🇫🇷France	I	2092	100.0%	90.0%	64.2%	47.1%	32.0%	18.8%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2067	100.0%	91.9%	75.3%	56.6%	32.1%	17.9%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2066	99.9%	83.6%	65.1%	43.8%	25.9%	14.1%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1987	100.0%	83.9%	34.2%	20.3%	9.2%	3.7%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1991	100.0%	60.9%	43.8%	18.9%	8.9%	3.6%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1984	92.2%	66.1%	37.5%	18.8%	8.3%	3.4%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	1987	100.0%	63.5%	37.8%	17.4%	7.8%	3.3%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1950	100.0%	71.1%	37.1%	16.5%	6.0%	2.1%
🇺🇸United States	D	1855	100.0%	77.0%	47.8%	14.4%	4.9%	1.5%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1933	96.6%	73.5%	28.5%	12.9%	4.5%	1.4%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1921	98.9%	64.3%	33.7%	12.8%	4.7%	1.3%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1887	100.0%	70.8%	29.6%	8.2%	2.5%	0.9%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1909	100.0%	45.8%	24.6%	8.3%	2.6%	0.8%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1841	100.0%	60.2%	17.4%	6.8%	2.1%	0.6%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1883	89.2%	42.3%	13.0%	5.7%	1.8%	0.5%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1894	36.5%	17.9%	8.9%	3.8%	1.2%	0.4%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1867	80.1%	38.9%	17.4%	4.7%	1.4%	0.4%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1864	100.0%	37.5%	14.9%	4.5%	1.3%	0.3%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1797	100.0%	64.2%	23.9%	5.4%	1.4%	0.2%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1888	24.9%	12.7%	6.0%	1.9%	0.6%	0.1%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1830	98.5%	27.6%	9.2%	2.1%	0.5%	0.1%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1825	95.8%	23.2%	9.2%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1811	96.6%	28.8%	8.7%	2.1%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1804	85.4%	26.2%	9.9%	1.9%	0.3%	<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1767	84.1%	18.4%	3.4%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1745	21.2%	7.7%	2.0%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1757	95.6%	31.1%	6.5%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1746	88.4%	22.0%	3.1%	0.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1708	100.0%	33.5%	7.0%	0.8%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1721	57.4%	12.4%	2.3%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1535	13.5%	1.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1423	11.6%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1657	69.3%	8.6%	2.0%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1561	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1709	93.0%	22.3%	2.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1910	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1450	4.6%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1601	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1638	55.6%	13.1%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1520	3.5%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1577	66.9%	2.7%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1555	33.9%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1518	2.6%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1535	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1681	25.4%	3.2%	0.6%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1684	72.3%	12.7%	2.5%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1603	6.4%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.