| Kickoff | Match | Bet | Model | Market | Blended | Price | Stake | To win | Exp. profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 9:00 PM | đŽđˇIran vs đłđżNew Zealand | Iran to win | 69% | 55% | 59% | 1.86 | $150 | $129 | +$15.93 |
How we pick these bets: we take every bookmaker's odds, strip out the margin they build in for profit, and average them into the market's honest estimate of each outcome (shown as Market). For match results we blend our model with the market — 35% model, 65% market — because the market already prices in injuries and lineups our model can't see, so a bet only counts when our disagreement is big enough to survive that blend. Over/Under bets use the market alone, since our testing showed the model can't predict goal totals. We only bet when there's at least +2% expected profit at the best price on offer, and we skip likely mistakes rather than real value: odds far out of line with every other book (more than a 20% edge), or heavy favorites priced under 1.40, where you risk a lot to win a little. Stakes use quarter-Kelly — a standard rule that risks more when the edge is bigger — on a $5,000 practice bankroll, capped at $150 a bet; Exp. profit is what a bet makes on average. Expect losing days: an edge is a long-run average, not a promise.
Record 5–3 · staked $370 · net +61 · ROI +16.6% · 1 pending
Closing-line value: avg +4.0% · beat the close 100% of the time (4 bets). CLV measures whether we got a better price than the market's final line — the best long-run signal that the bets are genuinely sharp.
| Kickoff | Match | Bet | Price | Stake | Result | Profit | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 12:00 PM | đŞđ¸Spain vs đ¨đťCape Verde | Draw | 18.00 | $10 | WIN | +170 | +7.8% |
| Jun 14, 7:00 PM | đ¨đŽIvory Coast vs đŞđ¨Ecuador | Ecuador to win | 2.68 | $60 | LOSS | -60 | +4.3% |
| Jun 14, 1:00 PM | đŠđŞGermany vs đ¨đźCuracao | Over 4.5 goals | 2.20 | $20 | WIN | +24 | +2.0% |
| Jun 14, 4:00 PM | đłđąNetherlands vs đŻđľJapan | Over 2.5 goals | 2.18 | $25 | WIN | +30 | +1.8% |
| Jun 13, 9:00 PM | đđšHaiti vs đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland | Scotland to win | 1.56 | $60 | WIN | +34 | – |
| Jun 13, 6:00 PM | đ§đˇBrazil vs đ˛đŚMorocco | Draw | 3.95 | $15 | WIN | +44 | – |
| Jun 13, 3:00 PM | đśđŚQatar vs đ¨đSwitzerland | Switzerland to win | 1.24 | $150 | LOSS | -150 | – |
| Jun 11, 10:00 PM | đ°đˇSouth Korea vs đ¨đżCzech Republic | Czech Republic to win | 3.15 | $30 | LOSS | -30 | – |
Our model's probability vs Kalshi's live price for each outcome. Breakeven is the probability an outcome needs to clear Kalshi's ~7% fee + spread; net edge = our probability − breakeven, so only positive values are worth a trade. Read-only — no orders are placed. Treat big edges skeptically: our model is least reliable on longshots, which is where most of them appear.
| Kickoff | Match | Outcome | Our | Kalshi | Breakeven | Net edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 3:00 PM | đ§đŞBelgium vs đŞđŹEgypt | đ§đŞBelgium | 55% | 64–65¢ | 71% | -16.3% |
| Draw | 24% | 23–24¢ | 30% | -5.6% | ||
| đŞđŹEgypt | 21% | 13–14¢ | 18% | +2.9% | ||
| Jun 15, 6:00 PM | đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia vs đşđžUruguay | đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia | 11% | 11–12¢ | 16% | -5.1% |
| Draw | 23% | 21–22¢ | 28% | -5.1% | ||
| đşđžUruguay | 66% | 67–68¢ | 74% | -7.7% | ||
| Jun 15, 9:00 PM | đŽđˇIran vs đłđżNew Zealand | đŽđˇIran | 69% | 53–54¢ | 60% | +8.6% |
| Draw | 20% | 28–29¢ | 35% | -15.4% | ||
| đłđżNew Zealand | 12% | 19–20¢ | 26% | -14.3% | ||
| Jun 16, 3:00 PM | đŤđˇFrance vs đ¸đłSenegal | đŤđˇFrance | 48% | 66–67¢ | 73% | -24.9% |
| Draw | 24% | 21–22¢ | 28% | -4.1% | ||
| đ¸đłSenegal | 28% | 12–13¢ | 17% | +11.0% | ||
| Jun 16, 6:00 PM | đŽđśIraq vs đłđ´Norway | đŽđśIraq | 11% | 5–6¢ | 10% | +0.6% |
| Draw | 18% | 12–13¢ | 17% | +0.8% | ||
| đłđ´Norway | 72% | 82–83¢ | 87% | -15.4% | ||
| Jun 16, 9:00 PM | đŚđˇArgentina vs đŠđżAlgeria | đŚđˇArgentina | 65% | 69–70¢ | 76% | -11.2% |
| Draw | 22% | 20–21¢ | 27% | -4.8% | ||
| đŠđżAlgeria | 13% | 10–11¢ | 15% | -2.0% | ||
| Jun 17, 12:00 AM | đŚđšAustria vs đŻđ´Jordan | đŚđšAustria | 68% | 72–73¢ | 79% | -11.3% |
| Draw | 18% | 17–18¢ | 24% | -6.2% | ||
| đŻđ´Jordan | 15% | 10–11¢ | 15% | -0.5% | ||
| Jun 17, 1:00 PM | đľđšPortugal vs đ¨đŠDR Congo | đľđšPortugal | 61% | 76–77¢ | 83% | -22.0% |
| Draw | 24% | 16–17¢ | 21% | +2.6% | ||
| đ¨đŠDR Congo | 15% | 8–9¢ | 13% | +2.4% | ||
| Jun 17, 4:00 PM | đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland vs đđˇCroatia | đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland | 53% | 57–58¢ | 64% | -10.9% |
| Draw | 25% | 24–25¢ | 31% | -6.1% | ||
| đđˇCroatia | 22% | 18–19¢ | 25% | -3.0% | ||
| Jun 17, 7:00 PM | đŹđGhana vs đľđŚPanama | đŹđGhana | 43% | 43–44¢ | 50% | -7.3% |
| Draw | 25% | 28–29¢ | 35% | -10.2% | ||
| đľđŚPanama | 32% | 28–29¢ | 35% | -2.5% | ||
| Jun 17, 10:00 PM | đşđżUzbekistan vs đ¨đ´Colombia | đşđżUzbekistan | 11% | 9–10¢ | 14% | -2.9% |
| Draw | 18% | 19–20¢ | 26% | -7.7% | ||
| đ¨đ´Colombia | 71% | 71–72¢ | 78% | -7.4% | ||
| Jun 18, 12:00 PM | đ¨đżCzech Republic vs đżđŚSouth Africa | đ¨đżCzech Republic | 50% | 54–55¢ | 61% | -10.6% |
| Draw | 24% | 25–26¢ | 32% | -7.6% | ||
| đżđŚSouth Africa | 25% | 20–21¢ | 27% | -1.8% | ||
| Jun 18, 3:00 PM | đ¨đSwitzerland vs đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina | đ¨đSwitzerland | 71% | 62–63¢ | 69% | +2.0% |
| Draw | 17% | 23–24¢ | 30% | -12.5% | ||
| đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina | 12% | 15–16¢ | 20% | -8.5% | ||
| Jun 18, 6:00 PM | đ¨đŚCanada vs đśđŚQatar | đ¨đŚCanada | 75% | 76–77¢ | 83% | -7.6% |
| Draw | 15% | 16–17¢ | 21% | -5.6% | ||
| đśđŚQatar | 9% | 8–9¢ | 13% | -3.8% | ||
| Jun 18, 9:00 PM | đ˛đ˝Mexico vs đ°đˇSouth Korea | đ˛đ˝Mexico | 47% | 48–49¢ | 55% | -7.9% |
| Draw | 25% | 27–28¢ | 34% | -9.5% | ||
| đ°đˇSouth Korea | 28% | 23–24¢ | 30% | -1.6% | ||
| Jun 19, 3:00 PM | đşđ¸United States vs đŚđşAustralia | đşđ¸United States | 23% | 61–62¢ | 68% | -44.8% |
| Draw | 23% | 21–22¢ | 28% | -4.6% | ||
| đŚđşAustralia | 53% | 17–18¢ | 24% | +29.4% |
| Team | Rating | Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| đŞđ¸Spain | 2084 | 19.7% | 14.8% | |
| đŤđˇFrance | 2066 | 18.7% | 16.3% | |
| đŚđˇArgentina | 2046 | 13.8% | 8.0% | |
| đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland | 2039 | 12.4% | 11.1% | |
| đľđšPortugal | 2001 | 7.1% | 10.2% | |
| đ§đˇBrazil | 1989 | 5.3% | 7.1% | |
| đŠđŞGermany | 1971 | 4.5% | 6.1% | |
| đłđąNetherlands | 1958 | 3.4% | 4.3% | |
| đ§đŞBelgium | 1911 | 2.1% | 2.2% | |
| đłđ´Norway | 1926 | 1.9% | 2.4% | |
| đ¨đ´Colombia | 1913 | 1.6% | 1.5% | |
| đşđ¸United States | 1833 | 1.2% | 1.8% |
Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 12:00 PM | đŞđ¸Spain vs đ¨đťCape Verde | 0–0 |
| Jun 14, 10:00 PM | đ¸đŞSweden vs đšđłTunisia | 5–1 |
| Jun 14, 7:00 PM | đ¨đŽIvory Coast vs đŞđ¨Ecuador | 1–0 |
| Jun 14, 4:00 PM | đłđąNetherlands vs đŻđľJapan | 2–2 |
| Jun 14, 1:00 PM | đŠđŞGermany vs đ¨đźCuracao | 7–1 |
| Jun 14, 12:00 AM | đŚđşAustralia vs đšđˇTurkey | 2–0 |
| Jun 13, 9:00 PM | đđšHaiti vs đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland | 0–1 |
| Jun 13, 6:00 PM | đ§đˇBrazil vs đ˛đŚMorocco | 1–1 |
| Jun 13, 3:00 PM | đśđŚQatar vs đ¨đSwitzerland | 1–1 |
| Jun 12, 9:00 PM | đşđ¸United States vs đľđžParaguay | 4–1 |
| Jun 12, 3:00 PM | đ¨đŚCanada vs đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina | 1–1 |
| Jun 11, 10:00 PM | đ°đˇSouth Korea vs đ¨đżCzech Republic | 2–1 |
| Group A | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đ˛đ˝Mexico | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 6.7 | 98.7% |
| đ°đˇSouth Korea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 6.1 | 94.9% |
| đ¨đżCzech Republic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3.0 | 60.4% |
| đżđŚSouth Africa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 1.3 | 13.8% |
| Group B | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đ¨đSwitzerland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 | 4.5 | 81.9% |
| đ¨đŚCanada | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 | 4.9 | 92.1% |
| đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 | 3.9 | 77.0% |
| đśđŚQatar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 | 1.8 | 18.7% |
| Group C | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 4.6 | 80.9% |
| đ§đˇBrazil | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 | 5.9 | 97.7% |
| đ˛đŚMorocco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 | 5.2 | 92.0% |
| đđšHaiti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.3% |
| Group D | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đşđ¸United States | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 | 6.3 | 97.5% |
| đŚđşAustralia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 5.1 | 86.5% |
| đšđˇTurkey | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3.2 | 54.4% |
| đľđžParaguay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 2.4 | 32.4% |
| Group E | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đŠđŞGermany | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 3 | 6.6 | 99.8% |
| đ¨đŽIvory Coast | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 6.5 | 98.0% |
| đŞđ¨Ecuador | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3.8 | 84.5% |
| đ¨đźCuracao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 | 0.4 | 1.5% |
| Group F | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đ¸đŞSweden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 | 5.0 | 97.1% |
| đłđąNetherlands | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 | 5.5 | 94.7% |
| đŻđľJapan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 | 4.9 | 88.2% |
| đšđłTunisia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0.8 | 4.5% |
| Group G | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đ§đŞBelgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 7.1 | 97.9% |
| đŞđŹEgypt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 4.2 | 72.9% |
| đŽđˇIran | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 3.4 | 58.1% |
| đłđżNew Zealand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 2.0 | 27.9% |
| Group H | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đŞđ¸Spain | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 | 6.0 | 98.7% |
| đ¨đťCape Verde | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 | 3.0 | 50.4% |
| đşđžUruguay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 5.5 | 92.2% |
| đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 1.7 | 17.4% |
| Group I | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đŤđˇFrance | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 6.9 | 98.9% |
| đłđ´Norway | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 5.0 | 89.0% |
| đ¸đłSenegal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 4.5 | 83.3% |
| đŽđśIraq | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.7% |
| Group J | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đŚđˇArgentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 7.4 | 98.9% |
| đŚđšAustria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 4.4 | 78.1% |
| đŠđżAlgeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 3.9 | 70.7% |
| đŻđ´Jordan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 1.2 | 12.2% |
| Group K | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đľđšPortugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 6.7 | 96.8% |
| đ¨đ´Colombia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 5.4 | 88.8% |
| đ¨đŠDR Congo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 2.4 | 35.0% |
| đşđżUzbekistan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 2.3 | 32.5% |
| Group L | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | xPts | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 7.3 | 99.0% |
| đđˇCroatia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 5.5 | 90.8% |
| đŹđGhana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 2.3 | 31.1% |
| đľđŚPanama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 2.0 | 25.2% |
Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.
| Team | Grp | Rating | Last 32 | Last 16 | Quarters | Semis | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| đŞđ¸Spain | H | 2084 | 98.7% | 75.9% | 57.9% | 45.1% | 31.1% | 19.7% |
| đŤđˇFrance | I | 2066 | 98.9% | 82.6% | 62.0% | 45.1% | 31.2% | 18.7% |
| đŚđˇArgentina | J | 2046 | 98.9% | 68.1% | 54.9% | 38.6% | 23.1% | 13.8% |
| đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland | L | 2039 | 99.0% | 77.8% | 55.7% | 37.5% | 22.5% | 12.4% |
| đľđšPortugal | K | 2001 | 96.8% | 70.2% | 48.2% | 27.3% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| đ§đˇBrazil | C | 1989 | 97.7% | 63.6% | 40.8% | 22.3% | 11.8% | 5.3% |
| đŠđŞGermany | E | 1971 | 99.8% | 69.5% | 35.2% | 20.7% | 10.1% | 4.5% |
| đłđąNetherlands | F | 1958 | 94.7% | 56.8% | 35.9% | 17.3% | 8.1% | 3.4% |
| đ§đŞBelgium | G | 1911 | 97.9% | 65.8% | 36.6% | 13.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| đłđ´Norway | I | 1926 | 89.0% | 53.9% | 28.0% | 13.4% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| đ¨đ´Colombia | K | 1913 | 88.8% | 50.8% | 26.0% | 12.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| đşđ¸United States | D | 1833 | 97.5% | 62.5% | 28.8% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| đđˇCroatia | L | 1895 | 90.8% | 48.3% | 21.4% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| đşđžUruguay | H | 1880 | 92.2% | 38.6% | 20.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| đ˛đ˝Mexico | A | 1832 | 98.7% | 57.3% | 22.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| đ¸đłSenegal | I | 1884 | 83.3% | 44.5% | 20.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| đ˛đŚMorocco | C | 1877 | 92.0% | 43.2% | 21.3% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| đŞđ¨Ecuador | E | 1881 | 84.5% | 42.1% | 19.2% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| đŻđľJapan | F | 1869 | 88.2% | 39.9% | 18.5% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| đ¨đSwitzerland | B | 1861 | 81.9% | 50.3% | 21.0% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| đšđˇTurkey | D | 1878 | 54.4% | 28.3% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| đ¨đŚCanada | B | 1778 | 92.1% | 50.4% | 18.2% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| đ¨đŽIvory Coast | E | 1832 | 98.0% | 40.2% | 13.2% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| đŚđšAustria | J | 1822 | 78.1% | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| đ¸đŞSweden | F | 1820 | 97.1% | 37.5% | 14.1% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland | C | 1779 | 80.9% | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| đŠđżAlgeria | J | 1791 | 70.7% | 20.2% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| đ°đˇSouth Korea | A | 1761 | 94.9% | 41.0% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| đ¨đżCzech Republic | A | 1745 | 60.4% | 20.1% | 5.5% | 0.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| đŚđşAustralia | D | 1746 | 86.5% | 39.6% | 8.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| đľđžParaguay | D | 1761 | 32.4% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| đŞđŹEgypt | G | 1704 | 72.9% | 23.3% | 3.9% | 0.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1680 | 77.0% | 22.4% | 4.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| đşđżUzbekistan | K | 1691 | 32.5% | 6.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| đ¨đŠDR Congo | K | 1696 | 35.0% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| đżđŚSouth Africa | A | 1550 | 13.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đśđŚQatar | B | 1456 | 18.7% | 1.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đđšHaiti | C | 1572 | 3.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đ¨đźCuracao | E | 1464 | 1.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đšđłTunisia | F | 1612 | 4.5% | 0.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đŽđˇIran | G | 1651 | 58.1% | 14.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% |
| đłđżNew Zealand | G | 1551 | 27.9% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đ¨đťCape Verde | H | 1605 | 50.4% | 5.4% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia | H | 1570 | 17.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đŽđśIraq | I | 1540 | 3.7% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đŻđ´Jordan | J | 1574 | 12.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đŹđGhana | L | 1659 | 31.1% | 5.0% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| đľđŚPanama | L | 1636 | 25.2% | 3.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% |
Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.