⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Monday, June 22 2026 at 6:30 AM

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L
-$217.71
after $0.80 costs
Realized
-$216.91
20 settled
At risk
$52.17
2 open
ROI
-30.8%
on settled stake
Record
5–15
W–L
Match winner · -13% ROI · CLV -8% (12)Over/Under · -41% ROI · CLV – (5)Both teams to score · -100% ROI · CLV +8% (3)
MatchBetOur ProbKalshi ProbNet EdgeCostStatusP&L
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿AlgeriaBoth score62%46¢+9.6%$39.56Placed
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar🇶🇦Qatar21%13¢+3.7%$12.61Placed
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay🇵🇾Paraguay37%25¢+6.4%$74.40Won+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast🇨🇮Ivory Coast25%17¢+4.4%$28.56Lost-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran🇮🇷Iran22%13¢+4.9%$15.86Lost-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia🇦🇺Australia30%18¢+6.0%$74.95Lost-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺AustraliaDraw20%13¢+3.0%$17.03Lost-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco🇲🇦Morocco89%80¢+3.2%$8.00Won+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland16%+6.8%$0.10Lost-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹HaitiOver 3.5 goals75%46¢+23.0%$58.88Lost-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹HaitiDraw20%10¢+5.5%$15.46Lost-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay🇹🇷Turkey44%25¢+12.6%$25.04Lost-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden🇸🇪Sweden18%10¢+4.3%$14.64Lost-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪SwedenOver 2.5 goals89%78¢+5.3%$67.08Won+18.92
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷IranBoth score60%48¢+6.5%$32.64Lost-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaBoth score41%31¢+4.0%$19.84Lost-19.84
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼CuracaoOver 2.5 goals62%43¢+12.9%$42.45Lost-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼CuracaoBoth score19%10¢+5.2%$14.52Lost-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵JapanOver 2.5 goals90%68¢+15.5%$38.08Won+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape VerdeOver 4.5 goals43%16¢+23.4%$34.24Lost-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape VerdeDraw100%86¢+10.0%$74.72Won+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt🇳🇿New Zealand26%16¢+6.2%$47.42Lost-47.42

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 14 graded

Accuracy 64% ±25% · always-favorite baseline 43% · Brier 0.568 (base-rate 0.653) · skill +13.1% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 14 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~36 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 22, 1:00 PM
🇦🇷Argentina
1.7 – 0.5projected goals
🇦🇹Austria
Argentina 71% · draw 19% · Austria 10%total 2.2 goals
Bookmakers: Argentina 67% · draw 21% · Austria 12%
Group stageJun 22, 5:00 PM
🇫🇷France
1.9 – 0.7projected goals
🇮🇶Iraq
France 85% · draw 10% · Iraq 6%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: France 92% · draw 6% · Iraq 2%
Group stageJun 22, 8:00 PM
🇳🇴Norway
1.3 – 1.4projected goals
🇸🇳Senegal
Norway 41% · draw 25% · Senegal 34%total 2.8 goals
Bookmakers: Norway 44% · draw 27% · Senegal 29%
Group stageJun 22, 11:00 PM
🇯🇴Jordan
1.1 – 2.3projected goals
🇩🇿Algeria
Jordan 12% · draw 17% · Algeria 71%total 3.3 goals
Bookmakers: Jordan 15% · draw 22% · Algeria 63%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 23, 1:00 PM
🇵🇹Portugal
1.6 – 0.8projected goals
🇺🇿Uzbekistan
Portugal 71% · draw 18% · Uzbekistan 11%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Portugal 83% · draw 12% · Uzbekistan 5%
Group stageJun 23, 4:00 PM
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England
1.8 – 0.6projected goals
🇬🇭Ghana
England 80% · draw 13% · Ghana 6%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: England 81% · draw 13% · Ghana 6%
Group stageJun 23, 7:00 PM
🇵🇦Panama
1.1 – 1.8projected goals
🇭🇷Croatia
Panama 14% · draw 17% · Croatia 68%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Panama 13% · draw 23% · Croatia 64%
Group stageJun 23, 10:00 PM
🇨🇴Colombia
1.5 – 0.8projected goals
🇨🇩DR Congo
Colombia 63% · draw 22% · DR Congo 15%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: Colombia 65% · draw 22% · DR Congo 13%
Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM
🇨🇭Switzerland
1.2 – 1.2projected goals
🇨🇦Canada
Switzerland 41% · draw 26% · Canada 33%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Switzerland 39% · draw 31% · Canada 30%
Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.5 – 1.2projected goals
🇶🇦Qatar
Bosnia and Herzegovina 60% · draw 20% · Qatar 19%total 2.7 goals
Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM
🇲🇦Morocco
1.9 – 0.7projected goals
🇭🇹Haiti
Morocco 78% · draw 14% · Haiti 7%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: Morocco 83% · draw 12% · Haiti 5%
Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland
0.9 – 2.3projected goals
🇧🇷Brazil
Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%total 3.2 goals
Bookmakers: Scotland 11% · draw 18% · Brazil 71%
Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM
🇨🇿Czech Republic
1.0 – 1.7projected goals
🇲🇽Mexico
Czech Republic 19% · draw 22% · Mexico 59%total 2.7 goals
Bookmakers: Czech Republic 26% · draw 25% · Mexico 50%
Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM
🇿🇦South Africa
0.8 – 1.5projected goals
🇰🇷South Korea
South Africa 15% · draw 21% · South Korea 64%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: South Africa 16% · draw 24% · South Korea 60%
Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM
🇪🇨Ecuador
1.2 – 1.0projected goals
🇩🇪Germany
Ecuador 32% · draw 26% · Germany 42%total 2.1 goals
Bookmakers: Ecuador 26% · draw 24% · Germany 49%
Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM
🇨🇼Curacao
0.6 – 2.1projected goals
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
Curacao 5% · draw 12% · Ivory Coast 83%total 2.8 goals
Bookmakers: Curacao 4% · draw 10% · Ivory Coast 87%

Who wins the World Cup

TeamRatingModelMarket
🇪🇸Spain211023.8%14.2%
🇫🇷France208817.6%19.4%
🇦🇷Argentina205816.2%10.3%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England206514.6%12.7%
🇩🇪Germany19864.2%5.6%
🇳🇱Netherlands19903.9%5.0%
🇵🇹Portugal19833.9%7.1%
🇧🇷Brazil19863.8%6.0%
🇳🇴Norway19382.0%2.1%
🇧🇪Belgium19332.0%1.4%
🇺🇸United States18551.6%2.5%
🇨🇴Colombia19201.5%1.6%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

DateMatchScore
Jun 21, 9:00 PM🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia4–0
Jun 21, 12:00 AM🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan0–4
Jun 20, 8:00 PM🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao0–0
Jun 20, 4:00 PM🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast2–1
Jun 20, 1:00 PM🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden5–1
Jun 19, 11:00 PM🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay0–1
Jun 19, 8:30 PM🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti3–0
Jun 19, 6:00 PM🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco0–1
Jun 19, 3:00 PM🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia2–0

Groups

Group APWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇲🇽Mexico2200+368.0100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea2101+035.295.6%
🇨🇿Czech Republic2011-111.821.4%
🇿🇦South Africa2011-211.613.4%
Group BPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇦Canada2110+645.2100.0%
🇨🇭Switzerland2110+345.5100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina2011-313.369.5%
🇶🇦Qatar2011-611.612.2%
Group CPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇷Brazil2110+346.2100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco2110+146.6100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland2101+033.685.2%
🇭🇹Haiti2002-400.30.0%
Group DPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇺🇸United States2200+567.4100.0%
🇦🇺Australia2101+034.293.3%
🇵🇾Paraguay2101-234.588.1%
🇹🇷Turkey2002-301.40.0%
Group EPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇩🇪Germany2200+767.8100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast2101+035.698.3%
🇪🇨Ecuador2011-112.026.4%
🇨🇼Curacao2011-611.24.7%
Group FPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇳🇱Netherlands2110+446.7100.0%
🇯🇵Japan2110+445.6100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden2101+034.296.2%
🇹🇳Tunisia2002-800.20.0%
Group GPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇬Egypt2110+245.6100.0%
🇮🇷Iran2020+023.157.1%
🇧🇪Belgium2020+024.796.4%
🇳🇿New Zealand2011-211.23.7%
Group HPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇸Spain2110+446.2100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay2020+022.637.5%
🇨🇻Cape Verde2020+023.566.1%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia2011-412.334.6%
Group IPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇳🇴Norway1100+335.499.0%
🇫🇷France1100+237.999.9%
🇸🇳Senegal1001-203.783.5%
🇮🇶Iraq1001-300.32.5%
Group JPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇦🇷Argentina1100+338.199.9%
🇦🇹Austria1100+235.196.3%
🇯🇴Jordan1001-200.66.7%
🇩🇿Algeria1001-303.568.9%
Group KPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇴Colombia1100+236.398.8%
🇵🇹Portugal1010+015.192.6%
🇨🇩DR Congo1010+013.257.6%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan1001-201.626.0%
Group LPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England1100+238.599.9%
🇬🇭Ghana1100+133.973.7%
🇵🇦Panama1001-100.66.6%
🇭🇷Croatia1001-204.588.4%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

TeamGrpRatingLast 32Last 16QuartersSemisFinalChampion
🇪🇸SpainH2110100.0%83.7%66.6%54.4%37.5%23.8%
🇫🇷FranceI208899.9%89.4%63.4%46.3%30.4%17.6%
🇦🇷ArgentinaJ205899.9%86.3%69.8%52.5%29.7%16.2%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandL206599.9%84.2%65.0%44.6%26.2%14.6%
🇩🇪GermanyE1986100.0%84.0%35.3%21.4%9.8%4.2%
🇳🇱NetherlandsF1990100.0%60.9%43.1%18.6%8.9%3.9%
🇵🇹PortugalK198392.6%66.3%37.8%20.2%9.2%3.9%
🇧🇷BrazilC1986100.0%63.0%38.8%17.9%8.4%3.8%
🇳🇴NorwayI193899.0%67.2%34.0%14.8%5.6%2.0%
🇧🇪BelgiumG193396.4%72.5%31.1%14.4%5.6%2.0%
🇺🇸United StatesD1855100.0%76.9%46.9%14.7%5.0%1.6%
🇨🇴ColombiaK192098.8%63.7%33.0%13.3%4.8%1.5%
🇲🇦MoroccoC1908100.0%47.0%26.6%8.5%2.7%0.8%
🇲🇽MexicoA1841100.0%60.5%17.4%7.2%2.1%0.7%
🇨🇭SwitzerlandB1886100.0%71.2%29.7%8.2%2.5%0.6%
🇭🇷CroatiaL188288.4%41.8%12.7%5.4%1.9%0.5%
🇸🇳SenegalI187783.5%44.8%20.2%6.2%1.7%0.5%
🇨🇦CanadaB1797100.0%63.8%23.6%5.6%1.8%0.4%
🇺🇾UruguayH189337.5%18.0%8.0%3.4%1.1%0.4%
🇯🇵JapanF1864100.0%36.4%15.4%4.6%1.4%0.3%
🇪🇨EcuadorE188726.4%13.4%6.3%2.0%0.7%0.2%
🇦🇹AustriaJ183296.3%30.6%13.3%4.2%0.9%0.2%
🇨🇮Ivory CoastE182998.3%31.0%10.6%2.5%0.5%<0.1%
🇸🇪SwedenF181096.2%28.4%9.0%2.1%0.4%<0.1%
🇩🇿AlgeriaJ178768.9%18.9%6.8%1.5%0.4%<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandC176785.2%18.6%3.4%0.8%0.2%<0.1%
🇵🇾ParaguayD174688.1%22.4%3.6%0.9%0.1%<0.1%
🇪🇬EgyptG1708100.0%33.3%7.1%0.9%<0.1%<0.1%
🇨🇩DR CongoK172157.6%12.5%2.3%0.4%<0.1%<0.1%
🇰🇷South KoreaA175795.6%30.6%7.0%0.9%0.1%<0.1%
🇿🇦South AfricaA153513.4%1.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇿Czech RepublicA174521.4%7.8%1.9%0.3%<0.1%0.0%
🇶🇦QatarB142412.2%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaB165869.5%8.9%2.0%0.1%<0.1%0.0%
🇭🇹HaitiC15620.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇦🇺AustraliaD171093.3%24.0%2.9%0.7%<0.1%0.0%
🇹🇷TurkeyD19090.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇼CuracaoE14514.7%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇹🇳TunisiaF16020.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇷IranG164057.1%13.0%1.6%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇳🇿New ZealandG15213.7%0.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇻Cape VerdeH157866.1%3.1%0.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaH155734.6%1.6%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇶IraqI15222.5%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇯🇴JordanJ15546.7%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇺🇿UzbekistanK168126.0%3.4%0.5%0.1%<0.1%0.0%
🇬🇭GhanaL168473.7%12.9%2.3%0.4%<0.1%0.0%
🇵🇦PanamaL16046.6%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.