⚠️ Circuit-breaker paused: game (negative rolling CLV).
Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L
Net P&L
-$286.24
after $1.20 costs
Realized
-$285.04
36 settled
At risk
$12.61
1 open
ROI
-25.1%
on settled stake
Record
10–26
W–L
Match winner · PAUSED · CLV -11%(17)Over/Under · -44% ROI · CLV – (11)Both teams to score · -54% ROI · CLV +8%(8)
Match
Bet
Our Prob
Kalshi Prob
Net Edge
Cost
Status
P&L
đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina vs đśđŚQatar
đśđŚQatar
21%
13¢
+3.7%
$12.61
Placed
–
đšđˇTurkey vs đľđžParaguay
đľđžParaguay
37%
25¢
+6.4%
$74.40
Won
+174.60
đŠđŞGermany vs đ¨đŽIvory Coast
đ¨đŽIvory Coast
25%
17¢
+4.4%
$28.56
Lost
-28.56
đ§đŞBelgium vs đŽđˇIran
đŽđˇIran
22%
13¢
+4.9%
$15.86
Lost
-15.86
đşđ¸United States vs đŚđşAustralia
đŚđşAustralia
30%
18¢
+6.0%
$74.95
Lost
-74.95
đşđ¸United States vs đŚđşAustralia
Draw
20%
13¢
+3.0%
$17.03
Lost
-17.03
đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland vs đ˛đŚMorocco
đ˛đŚMorocco
89%
80¢
+3.2%
$8.00
Won
+2.00
đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland vs đ˛đŚMorocco
đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland
16%
5¢
+6.8%
$0.10
Lost
-0.10
đ§đˇBrazil vs đđšHaiti
Over 3.5 goals
75%
46¢
+23.0%
$58.88
Lost
-58.88
đ§đˇBrazil vs đđšHaiti
Draw
20%
10¢
+5.5%
$15.46
Lost
-15.46
đšđˇTurkey vs đľđžParaguay
đšđˇTurkey
44%
25¢
+12.6%
$25.04
Lost
-25.04
đłđąNetherlands vs đ¸đŞSweden
đ¸đŞSweden
18%
10¢
+4.3%
$14.64
Lost
-14.64
đłđąNetherlands vs đ¸đŞSweden
Over 2.5 goals
89%
78¢
+5.3%
$67.08
Won
+18.92
đŻđ´Jordan vs đŠđżAlgeria
Both score
62%
46¢
+9.6%
$39.56
Won
+46.44
đ§đŞBelgium vs đŽđˇIran
Both score
60%
48¢
+6.5%
$32.64
Lost
-32.64
đŞđ¸Spain vs đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia
Both score
41%
31¢
+4.0%
$19.84
Lost
-19.84
đŞđ¨Ecuador vs đ¨đźCuracao
Over 2.5 goals
62%
43¢
+12.9%
$42.45
Lost
-42.45
đŞđ¨Ecuador vs đ¨đźCuracao
Both score
19%
10¢
+5.2%
$14.52
Lost
-14.52
đšđłTunisia vs đŻđľJapan
Over 2.5 goals
90%
68¢
+15.5%
$38.08
Won
+17.92
đşđžUruguay vs đ¨đťCape Verde
Over 4.5 goals
43%
16¢
+23.4%
$34.24
Lost
-34.24
đşđžUruguay vs đ¨đťCape Verde
Draw
100%
86¢
+10.0%
$74.72
Won
+11.28
đłđżNew Zealand vs đŞđŹEgypt
đłđżNew Zealand
26%
16¢
+6.2%
$47.42
Lost
-47.42
đŚđˇArgentina vs đŚđšAustria
Draw
27%
13¢
+10.5%
$26.06
Lost
-26.06
đŚđˇArgentina vs đŚđšAustria
Over 2.5 goals
51%
41¢
+4.1%
$13.12
Lost
-13.12
đŤđˇFrance vs đŽđśIraq
Over 3.5 goals
45%
27¢
+11.8%
$18.36
Lost
-18.36
đŤđˇFrance vs đŽđśIraq
Both score
33%
21¢
+5.5%
$15.98
Lost
-15.98
đłđ´Norway vs đ¸đłSenegal
đłđ´Norway
50%
39¢
+5.1%
$56.36
Won
+36.64
đŻđ´Jordan vs đŠđżAlgeria
đŻđ´Jordan
27%
14¢
+8.8%
$39.99
Lost
-39.99
đŻđ´Jordan vs đŠđżAlgeria
Over 2.5 goals
55%
34¢
+14.8%
$22.78
Won
+44.22
đľđšPortugal vs đşđżUzbekistan
Both score
33%
20¢
+6.7%
$26.41
Lost
-26.41
đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland vs đŹđGhana
Over 2.5 goals
55%
35¢
+14.3%
$19.95
Lost
-19.95
đľđŚPanama vs đđˇCroatia
đđˇCroatia
68%
51¢
+11.4%
$29.58
Won
+28.42
đľđŚPanama vs đđˇCroatia
Both score
42%
27¢
+8.9%
$22.53
Lost
-22.53
đľđŚPanama vs đđˇCroatia
Over 2.5 goals
56%
27¢
+23.0%
$29.16
Lost
-29.16
đ¨đ´Colombia vs đ¨đŠDR Congo
Over 1.5 goals
62%
45¢
+10.9%
$28.65
Lost
-28.65
đ¨đ´Colombia vs đ¨đŠDR Congo
Both score
32%
20¢
+5.7%
$16.70
Lost
-16.70
đ¨đ´Colombia vs đ¨đŠDR Congo
đ¨đ´Colombia
65%
43¢
+15.6%
$24.94
Won
+33.06
Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.
⚠️ Only 22 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~28 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.
Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.
Recent results
Date
Match
Score
Jun 23, 10:00 PM
đ¨đ´Colombia vs đ¨đŠDR Congo
1–0
Jun 23, 7:00 PM
đľđŚPanama vs đđˇCroatia
0–1
Jun 23, 4:00 PM
đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland vs đŹđGhana
0–0
Jun 23, 1:00 PM
đľđšPortugal vs đşđżUzbekistan
5–0
Jun 22, 11:00 PM
đŻđ´Jordan vs đŠđżAlgeria
1–2
Jun 22, 8:00 PM
đłđ´Norway vs đ¸đłSenegal
3–2
Jun 22, 5:00 PM
đŤđˇFrance vs đŽđśIraq
3–0
Jun 22, 1:00 PM
đŚđˇArgentina vs đŚđšAustria
2–0
Jun 21, 9:00 PM
đłđżNew Zealand vs đŞđŹEgypt
1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM
đşđžUruguay vs đ¨đťCape Verde
2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM
đ§đŞBelgium vs đŽđˇIran
0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM
đŞđ¸Spain vs đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia
4–0
Groups
Group A
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đ˛đ˝Mexico
2
2
0
0
+3
6
7.9
100.0%
đ°đˇSouth Korea
2
1
0
1
+0
3
5.2
95.5%
đ¨đżCzech Republic
2
0
1
1
-1
1
1.8
21.7%
đżđŚSouth Africa
2
0
1
1
-2
1
1.6
13.4%
Group B
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đ¨đŚCanada
2
1
1
0
+6
4
5.2
100.0%
đ¨đSwitzerland
2
1
1
0
+3
4
5.5
100.0%
đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina
2
0
1
1
-3
1
3.3
68.8%
đśđŚQatar
2
0
1
1
-6
1
1.6
12.0%
Group C
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đ§đˇBrazil
2
1
1
0
+3
4
6.2
100.0%
đ˛đŚMorocco
2
1
1
0
+1
4
6.6
100.0%
đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland
2
1
0
1
+0
3
3.6
82.3%
đđšHaiti
2
0
0
2
-4
0
0.3
0.0%
Group D
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đşđ¸United States
2
2
0
0
+5
6
7.3
100.0%
đŚđşAustralia
2
1
0
1
+0
3
4.2
91.2%
đľđžParaguay
2
1
0
1
-2
3
4.5
86.7%
đšđˇTurkey
2
0
0
2
-3
0
1.4
0.0%
Group E
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đŠđŞGermany
2
2
0
0
+7
6
7.7
100.0%
đ¨đŽIvory Coast
2
1
0
1
+0
3
5.7
98.5%
đŞđ¨Ecuador
2
0
1
1
-1
1
2.0
26.1%
đ¨đźCuracao
2
0
1
1
-6
1
1.2
4.5%
Group F
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đłđąNetherlands
2
1
1
0
+4
4
6.7
100.0%
đŻđľJapan
2
1
1
0
+4
4
5.6
100.0%
đ¸đŞSweden
2
1
0
1
+0
3
4.2
95.7%
đšđłTunisia
2
0
0
2
-8
0
0.2
0.0%
Group G
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đŞđŹEgypt
2
1
1
0
+2
4
5.7
100.0%
đŽđˇIran
2
0
2
0
+0
2
3.1
55.1%
đ§đŞBelgium
2
0
2
0
+0
2
4.7
96.8%
đłđżNew Zealand
2
0
1
1
-2
1
1.2
3.2%
Group H
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đŞđ¸Spain
2
1
1
0
+4
4
6.2
100.0%
đşđžUruguay
2
0
2
0
+0
2
2.6
35.9%
đ¨đťCape Verde
2
0
2
0
+0
2
3.5
66.4%
đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia
2
0
1
1
-4
1
2.3
34.0%
Group I
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đŤđˇFrance
2
2
0
0
+5
6
7.9
100.0%
đłđ´Norway
2
2
0
0
+4
6
6.8
100.0%
đ¸đłSenegal
2
0
0
2
-3
0
2.6
77.8%
đŽđśIraq
2
0
0
2
-6
0
0.3
2.9%
Group J
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đŚđˇArgentina
2
2
0
0
+5
6
8.9
100.0%
đŚđšAustria
2
1
0
1
+0
3
4.4
94.7%
đŠđżAlgeria
2
1
0
1
-2
3
4.3
83.9%
đŻđ´Jordan
2
0
0
2
-3
0
0.1
0.0%
Group K
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đ¨đ´Colombia
2
2
0
0
+3
6
7.1
100.0%
đľđšPortugal
2
1
1
0
+5
4
5.7
100.0%
đ¨đŠDR Congo
2
0
1
1
-1
1
2.5
45.3%
đşđżUzbekistan
2
0
0
2
-7
0
1.2
10.4%
Group L
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
xPts
Advance
đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland
2
1
1
0
+2
4
6.8
100.0%
đŹđGhana
2
1
1
0
+1
4
4.7
100.0%
đđˇCroatia
2
1
0
1
-1
3
5.1
97.0%
đľđŚPanama
2
0
0
2
-2
0
0.1
0.0%
Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.
Round-by-round odds all 48 teams
Team
Grp
Rating
Last 32
Last 16
Quarters
Semis
Final
Champion
đŞđ¸Spain
H
2111
100.0%
86.1%
65.7%
54.3%
35.8%
22.4%
đŤđˇFrance
I
2092
100.0%
89.1%
63.7%
46.5%
31.1%
18.4%
đŚđˇArgentina
J
2067
100.0%
92.5%
75.9%
56.1%
31.9%
18.1%
đ´ó §ó ˘ó Ľó Žó §ó żEngland
L
2053
100.0%
85.4%
63.9%
42.2%
23.5%
12.3%
đľđšPortugal
K
1996
100.0%
77.6%
44.4%
23.7%
11.4%
5.3%
đŠđŞGermany
E
1987
100.0%
84.0%
34.9%
20.5%
9.9%
4.4%
đłđąNetherlands
F
1991
100.0%
61.2%
44.0%
19.4%
9.4%
3.9%
đ§đˇBrazil
C
1987
100.0%
62.6%
37.5%
18.1%
8.5%
3.5%
đłđ´Norway
I
1950
100.0%
71.5%
37.1%
17.1%
6.2%
2.3%
đ¨đ´Colombia
K
1926
100.0%
68.9%
33.7%
13.3%
4.9%
1.8%
đşđ¸United States
D
1855
100.0%
76.9%
47.8%
14.2%
4.7%
1.6%
đ§đŞBelgium
G
1933
96.8%
74.2%
29.0%
12.2%
4.5%
1.4%
đ˛đŚMorocco
C
1909
100.0%
45.9%
25.4%
8.7%
3.1%
1.0%
đ¨đSwitzerland
B
1887
100.0%
70.8%
28.9%
8.1%
2.5%
0.8%
đ˛đ˝Mexico
A
1841
100.0%
60.6%
19.4%
7.9%
2.4%
0.7%
đđˇCroatia
L
1890
97.0%
38.7%
15.0%
5.8%
2.0%
0.6%
đ¸đłSenegal
I
1867
77.8%
37.2%
16.6%
4.5%
1.4%
0.4%
đ¨đŚCanada
B
1797
100.0%
64.4%
21.9%
5.2%
1.4%
0.3%
đŻđľJapan
F
1864
100.0%
37.1%
14.5%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
đşđžUruguay
H
1894
35.9%
17.2%
7.8%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
đ¨đŽIvory Coast
E
1830
98.5%
27.3%
8.8%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
đŞđ¨Ecuador
E
1888
26.1%
13.1%
6.1%
1.7%
0.5%
0.2%
đŚđšAustria
J
1825
94.7%
22.7%
8.4%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
đ¸đŞSweden
F
1811
95.7%
30.0%
9.0%
2.1%
0.5%
<0.1%
đŠđżAlgeria
J
1804
83.9%
25.5%
9.2%
1.8%
0.3%
<0.1%
đŞđŹEgypt
G
1708
100.0%
33.3%
6.5%
0.8%
<0.1%
<0.1%
đ¨đżCzech Republic
A
1745
21.7%
8.0%
2.3%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
đľđžParaguay
D
1746
86.7%
20.7%
2.7%
0.6%
<0.1%
<0.1%
đżđŚSouth Africa
A
1535
13.4%
1.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
đ°đˇSouth Korea
A
1757
95.5%
31.1%
6.7%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
đśđŚQatar
B
1423
12.0%
0.2%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đ§đŚBosnia and Herzegovina
B
1657
68.8%
9.1%
1.9%
0.1%
<0.1%
0.0%
đđšHaiti
C
1561
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đ´ó §ó ˘ó łó Łó ´ó żScotland
C
1767
82.3%
18.4%
3.6%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
đŚđşAustralia
D
1709
91.2%
22.0%
1.8%
0.3%
<0.1%
0.0%
đšđˇTurkey
D
1910
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đ¨đźCuracao
E
1450
4.5%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đšđłTunisia
F
1602
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đŽđˇIran
G
1638
55.1%
13.2%
1.2%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
đłđżNew Zealand
G
1520
3.2%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đ¨đťCape Verde
H
1577
66.4%
2.4%
0.4%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
đ¸đŚSaudi Arabia
H
1555
34.0%
0.8%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đŽđśIraq
I
1518
2.9%
0.1%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đŻđ´Jordan
J
1535
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
đşđżUzbekistan
K
1668
10.4%
0.8%
0.2%
<0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
đ¨đŠDR Congo
K
1716
45.3%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
<0.1%
0.0%
đŹđGhana
L
1697
100.0%
13.9%
2.7%
0.3%
<0.1%
0.0%
đľđŚPanama
L
1595
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.