⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Tuesday, June 23 2026 at 6:00 PM

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Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L

-$230.53

after $1.00 costs

Realized

-$229.53

29 settled

At risk

$32.56

2 open

ROI

-23.8%

on settled stake

Record

8–21

W–L

Match winner · -16% ROI · CLV -11% (15)Over/Under · -29% ROI · CLV – (8)Both teams to score · -42% ROI · CLV +8% (6)

Match	Bet	Our Prob	Kalshi Prob	Net Edge	Cost	Status	P&L
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇶🇦Qatar	21%	13¢	+3.7%	$12.61	Placed	–
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭Ghana	Over 2.5 goals	55%	35¢	+14.3%	$19.95	Placed	–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$74.40	Won	+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	17¢	+4.4%	$28.56	Lost	-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	22%	13¢	+4.9%	$15.86	Lost	-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	30%	18¢	+6.0%	$74.95	Lost	-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	20%	13¢	+3.0%	$17.03	Lost	-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	89%	80¢	+3.2%	$8.00	Won	+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	16%	5¢	+6.8%	$0.10	Lost	-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	75%	46¢	+23.0%	$58.88	Lost	-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	20%	10¢	+5.5%	$15.46	Lost	-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	44%	25¢	+12.6%	$25.04	Lost	-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	18%	10¢	+4.3%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	89%	78¢	+5.3%	$67.08	Won	+18.92
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$39.56	Won	+46.44
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both score	60%	48¢	+6.5%	$32.64	Lost	-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19.84	Lost	-19.84
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 2.5 goals	62%	43¢	+12.9%	$42.45	Lost	-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Both score	19%	10¢	+5.2%	$14.52	Lost	-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	90%	68¢	+15.5%	$38.08	Won	+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 4.5 goals	43%	16¢	+23.4%	$34.24	Lost	-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	86¢	+10.0%	$74.72	Won	+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	🇳🇿New Zealand	26%	16¢	+6.2%	$47.42	Lost	-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Draw	27%	13¢	+10.5%	$26.06	Lost	-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	51%	41¢	+4.1%	$13.12	Lost	-13.12
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Over 3.5 goals	45%	27¢	+11.8%	$18.36	Lost	-18.36
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Both score	33%	21¢	+5.5%	$15.98	Lost	-15.98
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	🇳🇴Norway	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$56.36	Won	+36.64
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	🇯🇴Jordan	27%	14¢	+8.8%	$39.99	Lost	-39.99
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Over 2.5 goals	55%	34¢	+14.8%	$22.78	Won	+44.22
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	Both score	33%	20¢	+6.7%	$26.41	Lost	-26.41

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 19 graded

Accuracy 74% ±20% · always-favorite baseline 53% · Brier 0.468 (base-rate 0.609) · skill +23.2% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 19 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~31 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 23, 4:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

1.8 – 0.6projected goals

🇬🇭Ghana

England 80% · draw 13% · Ghana 6%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: England 8% · draw 91% · Ghana 1%

Group stageJun 23, 7:00 PM

🇵🇦Panama

1.1 – 1.8projected goals

🇭🇷Croatia

Panama 14% · draw 17% · Croatia 69%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Panama 12% · draw 20% · Croatia 68%

Group stageJun 23, 10:00 PM

🇨🇴Colombia

1.5 – 0.8projected goals

🇨🇩DR Congo

Colombia 63% · draw 22% · DR Congo 15%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Colombia 64% · draw 23% · DR Congo 13%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇨🇭Switzerland

1.2 – 1.2projected goals

🇨🇦Canada

Switzerland 41% · draw 26% · Canada 33%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Switzerland 41% · draw 31% · Canada 28%

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina

1.5 – 1.2projected goals

🇶🇦Qatar

Bosnia and Herzegovina 60% · draw 20% · Qatar 19%total 2.7 goals

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🇲🇦Morocco

1.9 – 0.7projected goals

🇭🇹Haiti

Morocco 78% · draw 14% · Haiti 7%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Morocco 85% · draw 11% · Haiti 4%

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland

0.9 – 2.3projected goals

🇧🇷Brazil

Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇨🇿Czech Republic

1.0 – 1.7projected goals

🇲🇽Mexico

Czech Republic 19% · draw 22% · Mexico 59%total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Czech Republic 26% · draw 24% · Mexico 50%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇿🇦South Africa

0.8 – 1.5projected goals

🇰🇷South Korea

South Africa 15% · draw 21% · South Korea 64%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: South Africa 17% · draw 25% · South Korea 58%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇪🇨Ecuador

1.2 – 1.0projected goals

🇩🇪Germany

Ecuador 32% · draw 26% · Germany 42%total 2.1 goals

Bookmakers: Ecuador 25% · draw 23% · Germany 51%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇨🇼Curacao

0.6 – 2.1projected goals

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

Curacao 5% · draw 12% · Ivory Coast 83%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Curacao 4% · draw 10% · Ivory Coast 86%

Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM

🇹🇳Tunisia

0.9 – 1.8projected goals

🇳🇱Netherlands

Tunisia 9% · draw 14% · Netherlands 77%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Tunisia 3% · draw 9% · Netherlands 88%

Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM

🇯🇵Japan

2.4 – 0.9projected goals

🇸🇪Sweden

Japan 61% · draw 20% · Sweden 19%total 3.3 goals

Bookmakers: Japan 51% · draw 27% · Sweden 22%

Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM

🇹🇷Turkey

1.7 – 1.4projected goals

🇺🇸United States

Turkey 42% · draw 24% · United States 34%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Turkey 27% · draw 23% · United States 50%

Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM

🇵🇾Paraguay

0.9 – 1.1projected goals

🇦🇺Australia

Paraguay 36% · draw 28% · Australia 36%total 2.0 goals

Bookmakers: Paraguay 33% · draw 43% · Australia 24%

Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM

🇳🇴Norway

1.3 – 1.7projected goals

🇫🇷France

Norway 24% · draw 22% · France 54%total 3.0 goals

Bookmakers: Norway 18% · draw 22% · France 60%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2112	23.6%	14.2%
🇦🇷Argentina	2067	18.2%	12.0%
🇫🇷France	2092	18.1%	18.2%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2067	13.6%	12.4%
🇵🇹Portugal	1997	5.1%	7.8%
🇩🇪Germany	1987	3.7%	5.6%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1992	3.7%	5.2%
🇧🇷Brazil	1988	3.4%	5.1%
🇳🇴Norway	1951	2.3%	2.6%
🇧🇪Belgium	1934	1.7%	1.5%
🇺🇸United States	1855	1.5%	2.5%
🇨🇴Colombia	1921	1.1%	1.5%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 23, 1:00 PM	🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	5–0
Jun 22, 11:00 PM	🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	1–2
Jun 22, 8:00 PM	🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	3–2
Jun 22, 5:00 PM	🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	3–0
Jun 22, 1:00 PM	🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	2–0
Jun 21, 9:00 PM	🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM	🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	4–0
Jun 21, 12:00 AM	🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	0–4
Jun 20, 8:00 PM	🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	0–0
Jun 20, 4:00 PM	🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2–1

Groups

Group A	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	2	2	0	0	+3	6	7.9	100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.2	96.0%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	2	0	1	1	-1	1	1.8	21.6%
🇿🇦South Africa	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.6	13.2%

Group B	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇦Canada	2	1	1	0	+6	4	5.2	100.0%
🇨🇭Switzerland	2	1	1	0	+3	4	5.5	100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	0	1	1	-3	1	3.3	69.4%
🇶🇦Qatar	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.6	12.2%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	2	1	1	0	+3	4	6.2	100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	2	1	1	0	+1	4	6.6	100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	2	1	0	1	+0	3	3.6	85.4%
🇭🇹Haiti	2	0	0	2	-4	0	0.3	0.0%

Group D	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	2	2	0	+5	6	7.4	100.0%
🇦🇺Australia	2	1	1	+0	3	4.2	93.5%
🇵🇾Paraguay	2	1	1	-2	3	4.5	89.4%
🇹🇷Turkey	2	0	2	-3	0	1.4	0.0%

Group E	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	2	2	0	0	+7	6	7.8	100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.7	98.5%
🇪🇨Ecuador	2	0	1	1	-1	1	2.0	25.2%
🇨🇼Curacao	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.2	4.5%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇱Netherlands	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.7	100.0%
🇯🇵Japan	2	1	1	0	+4	4	5.6	100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden	2	1	0	1	+0	3	4.1	96.4%
🇹🇳Tunisia	2	0	0	2	-8	0	0.2	0.0%

Group G	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇬Egypt	2	1	1	0	+2	4	5.6	100.0%
🇮🇷Iran	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.1	56.8%
🇧🇪Belgium	2	0	2	0	+0	2	4.7	96.7%
🇳🇿New Zealand	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.2	3.4%

Group H	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.2	100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	2	0	2	0	+0	2	2.6	36.4%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.4	66.8%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	2	0	1	1	-4	1	2.3	34.1%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇫🇷France	2	2	0	+5	6	7.9	100.0%
🇳🇴Norway	2	2	0	+4	6	6.8	100.0%
🇸🇳Senegal	2	0	2	-3	0	2.6	78.8%
🇮🇶Iraq	2	0	2	-6	0	0.3	2.8%

Group J	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	2	2	0	+5	6	8.9	100.0%
🇦🇹Austria	2	1	1	+0	3	4.4	96.4%
🇩🇿Algeria	2	1	1	-2	3	4.3	86.2%
🇯🇴Jordan	2	0	2	-3	0	0.1	0.0%

Group K	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇵🇹Portugal	2	1	1	0	+5	4	5.7	100.0%
🇨🇴Colombia	1	1	0	0	+2	3	6.2	99.4%
🇨🇩DR Congo	1	0	1	0	+0	1	3.2	58.8%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	2	0	0	2	-7	0	1.2	10.2%

Group L	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	1	1	0	+2	3	8.5	99.9%
🇬🇭Ghana	1	1	0	+1	3	3.9	73.2%
🇵🇦Panama	1	0	1	-1	0	0.6	6.6%
🇭🇷Croatia	1	0	1	-2	0	4.5	88.2%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2112	100.0%	86.2%	67.9%	56.2%	37.5%	23.6%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2067	100.0%	92.3%	75.6%	56.3%	31.9%	18.2%
🇫🇷France	I	2092	100.0%	89.2%	64.0%	46.7%	31.7%	18.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2067	99.9%	84.4%	65.0%	44.0%	25.2%	13.6%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1997	100.0%	76.6%	47.4%	23.5%	11.2%	5.1%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1987	100.0%	83.1%	34.1%	20.7%	9.4%	3.7%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1992	100.0%	60.8%	43.2%	19.4%	9.2%	3.7%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	1988	100.0%	63.0%	37.5%	17.3%	8.2%	3.4%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1951	100.0%	71.7%	36.8%	16.4%	5.9%	2.3%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1934	96.7%	73.2%	28.8%	12.9%	4.9%	1.7%
🇺🇸United States	D	1855	100.0%	76.9%	48.0%	14.0%	4.6%	1.5%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1921	99.4%	62.1%	30.6%	12.0%	4.0%	1.1%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1909	100.0%	46.5%	25.1%	7.8%	2.5%	0.7%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1887	100.0%	71.6%	29.2%	8.1%	2.3%	0.7%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1841	100.0%	60.9%	17.9%	7.5%	2.3%	0.6%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1883	88.2%	39.4%	11.9%	5.3%	1.6%	0.4%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1867	78.8%	38.4%	16.9%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1797	100.0%	64.5%	22.4%	4.8%	1.2%	0.3%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1864	100.0%	37.1%	14.0%	3.9%	1.1%	0.3%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1894	36.4%	17.7%	8.4%	3.5%	1.0%	0.2%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1888	25.2%	12.8%	6.0%	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1825	96.4%	23.1%	9.2%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1830	98.5%	27.3%	9.5%	2.3%	0.4%	0.1%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1811	96.4%	29.0%	8.5%	2.1%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1804	86.2%	25.8%	10.0%	2.2%	0.5%	<0.1%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1746	89.4%	22.0%	3.1%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1684	73.2%	10.7%	1.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1757	96.0%	30.6%	6.9%	1.1%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1721	58.8%	10.9%	1.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1534	13.2%	1.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1745	21.6%	8.5%	2.3%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1422	12.2%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1657	69.4%	8.6%	1.9%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1561	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1767	85.4%	18.3%	3.5%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1709	93.5%	23.9%	2.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1910	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1449	4.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1601	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1708	100.0%	32.7%	6.4%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1638	56.8%	12.9%	1.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1520	3.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1576	66.8%	2.5%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1555	34.1%	0.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1517	2.8%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1534	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1668	10.2%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1602	6.6%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.