⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Saturday, June 27 2026 at 4:30 PM

⚠️ Dead-rubber goal dampening applied: Jordan (eliminated), Argentina (clinched).

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L

-$382.94

after $8.47 costs

Realized

-$374.47

57 settled

At risk

$0.00

0 open

ROI

-24.3%

on settled stake

Record

14–43

W–L

Match winner · -17% ROI · CLV -11% (27)Over/Under · -26% ROI · CLV – (19)Both teams to score · -43% ROI · CLV +8% (11)

Match	Bet	Our Prob	Kalshi Prob	Net Edge	Cost	Status	P&L
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$74.40	Won	+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	17¢	+4.4%	$28.56	Lost	-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	22%	13¢	+4.9%	$15.86	Lost	-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	30%	18¢	+6.0%	$74.95	Lost	-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	20%	13¢	+3.0%	$17.03	Lost	-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	89%	80¢	+3.2%	$8.00	Won	+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	16%	5¢	+6.8%	$0.10	Lost	-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	75%	46¢	+23.0%	$58.88	Lost	-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	20%	10¢	+5.5%	$15.46	Lost	-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	44%	25¢	+12.6%	$25.04	Lost	-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	18%	10¢	+4.3%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	89%	78¢	+5.3%	$67.08	Won	+18.92
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$39.56	Won	+46.44
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both score	60%	48¢	+6.5%	$32.64	Lost	-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19.84	Lost	-19.84
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇶🇦Qatar	21%	13¢	+3.7%	$12.61	Lost	-12.61
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 2.5 goals	62%	43¢	+12.9%	$42.45	Lost	-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Both score	19%	10¢	+5.2%	$14.52	Lost	-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	90%	68¢	+15.5%	$38.08	Won	+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 4.5 goals	43%	16¢	+23.4%	$34.24	Lost	-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	86¢	+10.0%	$74.72	Won	+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	🇳🇿New Zealand	26%	16¢	+6.2%	$47.42	Lost	-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Draw	27%	13¢	+10.5%	$26.06	Lost	-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	51%	41¢	+4.1%	$13.12	Lost	-13.12
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Over 3.5 goals	45%	27¢	+11.8%	$18.36	Lost	-18.36
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Both score	33%	21¢	+5.5%	$15.98	Lost	-15.98
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	🇳🇴Norway	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$56.36	Won	+36.64
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	🇯🇴Jordan	27%	14¢	+8.8%	$39.99	Lost	-39.99
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Over 2.5 goals	55%	34¢	+14.8%	$22.78	Won	+44.22
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	Both score	33%	20¢	+6.7%	$26.41	Lost	-26.41
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭Ghana	Over 2.5 goals	55%	35¢	+14.3%	$19.95	Lost	-19.95
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	🇭🇷Croatia	68%	51¢	+11.4%	$29.58	Won	+28.42
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Both score	42%	27¢	+8.9%	$22.53	Lost	-22.53
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Over 2.5 goals	56%	27¢	+23.0%	$29.16	Lost	-29.16
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Over 1.5 goals	62%	45¢	+10.9%	$28.65	Lost	-28.65
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Both score	32%	20¢	+5.7%	$16.70	Lost	-16.70
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	🇨🇴Colombia	65%	43¢	+15.6%	$24.94	Won	+33.06
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇨🇦Canada	Over 2.5 goals	43%	27¢	+10.3%	$21.98	Won	+68.02
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇨🇦Canada	Both score	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$11.25	Won	+33.75
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇧🇷Brazil	Both score	52%	40¢	+5.9%	$15.20	Lost	-15.20
🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇲🇽Mexico	Over 2.5 goals	50%	29¢	+14.6%	$31.30	Won	+84.70
🇿🇦South Africa vs 🇰🇷South Korea	Over 2.5 goals	42%	27¢	+8.9%	$24.66	Lost	-24.66
🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇲🇽Mexico	Both score	38%	24¢	+7.8%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇩🇪Germany	🇩🇪Germany	55%	31¢	+17.8%	$36.58	Lost	-36.58
🇨🇼Curacao vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	Over 3.5 goals	39%	23¢	+10.4%	$27.87	Lost	-27.87
🇯🇵Japan vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	54%	25¢	+23.0%	$34.75	Lost	-34.75
🇯🇵Japan vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇯🇵Japan	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$25.37	Lost	-25.37
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇺🇸United States	🇺🇸United States	41%	21¢	+14.2%	$19.11	Lost	-19.11
🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇦🇺Australia	Over 0.5 goals	66%	50¢	+10.2%	$28.07	Lost	-28.07
🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇵🇾Paraguay	32%	17¢	+11.3%	$16.79	Lost	-16.79
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇫🇷France	🇳🇴Norway	16%	5¢	+6.9%	$6.70	Lost	-6.70
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇪🇸Spain	Draw	55%	29¢	+20.2%	$20.59	Lost	-20.59
🇨🇻Cape Verde vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Draw	59%	31¢	+21.5%	$20.15	Won	+44.85
🇨🇻Cape Verde vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Over 2.5 goals	43%	25¢	+11.7%	$10.50	Lost	-10.50
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇪🇸Spain	Over 2.5 goals	44%	31¢	+6.5%	$12.38	Lost	-12.38
🇪🇬Egypt vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	41%	29¢	+5.8%	$8.99	Lost	-8.99
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇧🇪Belgium	🇳🇿New Zealand	16%	6¢	+6.3%	$5.94	Lost	-5.94

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in). Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 40 graded

Accuracy 70% ±14% · always-favorite baseline 45% · Brier 0.463 (base-rate 0.641) · skill +27.8% · 10 pending

⚠️ Only 40 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~10 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 27, 5:00 PM

🇵🇦Panama

0.6 – 1.9projected goals

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

Panama 7% · draw 13% · England 81%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Panama 5% · draw 9% · England 86%

Group stageJun 27, 5:00 PM

🇭🇷Croatia

1.4 – 0.8projected goals

🇬🇭Ghana

Croatia 59% · draw 24% · Ghana 18%total 2.1 goals

Bookmakers: Croatia 51% · draw 31% · Ghana 18%

Group stageJun 27, 7:30 PM

🇨🇴Colombia

1.4 – 1.3projected goals

🇵🇹Portugal

Colombia 33% · draw 26% · Portugal 42%total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Colombia 27% · draw 24% · Portugal 49%

Group stageJun 27, 7:30 PM

🇨🇩DR Congo

0.9 – 0.7projected goals

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

DR Congo 39% · draw 31% · Uzbekistan 30%total 1.6 goals

Bookmakers: DR Congo 57% · draw 24% · Uzbekistan 18%

Group stageJun 27, 10:00 PM

🇯🇴Jordan

0.4 – 2.4projected goals

🇦🇷Argentina

Jordan 3% · draw 9% · Argentina 88%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Jordan 4% · draw 9% · Argentina 87%

Group stageJun 27, 10:00 PM

🇩🇿Algeria

1.5 – 1.1projected goals

🇦🇹Austria

Algeria 41% · draw 25% · Austria 34%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Algeria 25% · draw 47% · Austria 28%

Upcoming matches

No scheduled matches available — add your API key to config.json and run the update.

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2122	22.7%	11.9%
🇫🇷France	2111	20.9%	20.4%
🇦🇷Argentina	2071	20.0%	14.8%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2073	13.1%	11.4%
🇧🇷Brazil	2005	4.4%	6.1%
🇵🇹Portugal	1999	4.3%	8.5%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1999	3.9%	4.9%
🇩🇪Germany	1974	2.2%	4.2%
🇧🇪Belgium	1941	1.5%	1.6%
🇳🇴Norway	1939	1.4%	2.4%
🇨🇴Colombia	1927	1.2%	1.5%
🇨🇭Switzerland	1901	0.8%	1.0%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 26, 11:00 PM	🇪🇬Egypt vs 🇮🇷Iran	1–1
Jun 26, 11:00 PM	🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇧🇪Belgium	1–5
Jun 26, 8:00 PM	🇨🇻Cape Verde vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	0–0
Jun 26, 8:00 PM	🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇪🇸Spain	0–1
Jun 26, 3:00 PM	🇸🇳Senegal vs 🇮🇶Iraq	5–0
Jun 26, 3:00 PM	🇳🇴Norway vs 🇫🇷France	1–4
Jun 25, 10:00 PM	🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇦🇺Australia	0–0
Jun 25, 10:00 PM	🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇺🇸United States	3–2
Jun 25, 7:00 PM	🇯🇵Japan vs 🇸🇪Sweden	1–1
Jun 25, 7:00 PM	🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇳🇱Netherlands	1–3
Jun 25, 4:00 PM	🇨🇼Curacao vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	0–2
Jun 25, 4:00 PM	🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇩🇪Germany	2–1

Groups

Group A	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	3	3	0	0	+6	9	9.0	100.0%
🇿🇦South Africa	3	1	1	1	-1	4	4.0	100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	3	1	0	2	-1	3	3.0	37.6%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	3	0	1	2	-4	1	1.0	0.0%

Group B	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇭Switzerland	3	2	1	0	+4	7	7.0	100.0%
🇨🇦Canada	3	1	1	1	+5	4	4.0	100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	-1	4	4.0	100.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	3	0	1	2	-8	1	1.0	0.0%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	3	2	1	0	+6	7	7.0	100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	3	2	1	0	+3	7	7.0	100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	3	1	0	2	-3	3	3.0	0.1%
🇭🇹Haiti	3	0	0	3	-6	0	0.0	0.0%

Group D	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	3	2	0	1	+4	6	6.0	100.0%
🇦🇺Australia	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇵🇾Paraguay	3	1	1	1	-2	4	4.0	100.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	3	1	0	2	-2	3	3.0	0.0%

Group E	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	3	2	0	1	+6	6	6.0	100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	+2	6	6.0	100.0%
🇪🇨Ecuador	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	3	0	1	2	-8	1	1.0	0.0%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇱Netherlands	3	2	1	0	+6	7	7.0	100.0%
🇯🇵Japan	3	1	2	0	+4	5	5.0	100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	3	0	0	3	-10	0	0.0	0.0%

Group G	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇪Belgium	3	1	2	0	+4	5	5.0	100.0%
🇪🇬Egypt	3	1	2	0	+2	5	5.0	100.0%
🇮🇷Iran	3	0	3	0	+0	3	3.0	90.1%
🇳🇿New Zealand	3	0	1	2	-6	1	1.0	0.0%

Group H	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	3	2	1	0	+5	7	7.0	100.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	3	0	3	0	+0	3	3.0	100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	3	0	2	1	-1	2	2.0	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	-4	2	2.0	0.0%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇫🇷France	3	3	0	+8	9	9.0	100.0%
🇳🇴Norway	3	2	1	+1	6	6.0	100.0%
🇸🇳Senegal	3	1	2	+2	3	3.0	100.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	3	0	3	-11	0	0.0	0.0%

Group J	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	2	2	0	+5	6	8.9	100.0%
🇦🇹Austria	2	1	1	+0	3	4.4	77.6%
🇩🇿Algeria	2	1	1	-2	3	4.3	61.2%
🇯🇴Jordan	2	0	2	-3	0	0.1	0.0%

Group K	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇴Colombia	2	2	0	0	+3	6	7.1	100.0%
🇵🇹Portugal	2	1	1	0	+5	4	5.7	100.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	2	0	1	1	-1	1	2.6	43.4%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	2	0	0	2	-7	0	1.2	<0.1%

Group L	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2	1	1	0	+2	4	6.8	100.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	2	1	1	0	+1	4	4.6	100.0%
🇭🇷Croatia	2	1	0	1	-1	3	5.2	89.9%
🇵🇦Panama	2	0	0	2	-2	0	0.1	0.0%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2122	100.0%	89.9%	68.5%	55.9%	36.4%	22.7%
🇫🇷France	I	2111	100.0%	94.0%	71.0%	54.0%	36.2%	20.9%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2071	100.0%	98.0%	91.7%	66.7%	35.9%	20.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2073	100.0%	85.1%	64.9%	44.6%	24.5%	13.1%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	2005	100.0%	70.8%	46.9%	23.4%	10.5%	4.4%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1999	100.0%	78.0%	41.5%	20.7%	9.8%	4.3%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1999	100.0%	63.9%	50.5%	19.6%	9.6%	3.9%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1974	100.0%	84.3%	25.9%	14.6%	6.9%	2.2%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1941	100.0%	68.1%	42.4%	12.7%	4.8%	1.5%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1939	100.0%	66.8%	30.4%	12.0%	4.0%	1.4%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1927	100.0%	69.1%	31.3%	11.5%	3.8%	1.2%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1901	100.0%	77.3%	34.0%	9.3%	2.5%	0.8%
🇺🇸United States	D	1843	100.0%	77.0%	36.2%	9.1%	2.8%	0.8%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1917	100.0%	36.1%	24.1%	6.3%	2.1%	0.6%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1851	100.0%	54.0%	15.7%	6.6%	1.9%	0.5%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1907	100.0%	43.3%	19.4%	7.0%	1.9%	0.4%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1881	100.0%	39.9%	15.4%	4.8%	1.3%	0.4%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1896	89.9%	36.5%	11.7%	4.5%	1.3%	0.4%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1873	100.0%	29.2%	12.8%	3.7%	0.9%	0.2%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1785	100.0%	87.9%	25.0%	4.7%	1.1%	0.2%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1839	100.0%	33.2%	9.8%	2.7%	0.7%	<0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1805	61.2%	9.7%	3.4%	0.6%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1825	77.6%	10.3%	3.7%	1.2%	0.3%	<0.1%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1804	100.0%	25.4%	5.6%	1.2%	0.2%	<0.1%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1720	100.0%	54.8%	4.6%	0.9%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1694	100.0%	45.2%	3.2%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1732	100.0%	10.2%	1.2%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1556	100.0%	12.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1731	37.6%	6.7%	1.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1735	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1408	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1665	100.0%	14.4%	1.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1552	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1753	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1926	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1438	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1595	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1646	90.1%	10.5%	1.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1511	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1588	100.0%	2.0%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1536	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1890	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1500	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1529	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1668	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1715	43.4%	3.5%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1683	100.0%	12.7%	2.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1587	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.