⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Wednesday, June 24 2026 at 1:30 PM
⚠️ Dead-rubber goal dampening applied: Morocco vs Haiti, Scotland vs Brazil, Czech Republic vs Mexico, Ecuador vs Germany, Curacao vs Ivory Coast, Tunisia vs Netherlands, Japan vs Sweden, Turkey vs United States, Norway vs France, Senegal vs Iraq, Uruguay vs Spain.
⚠️ Circuit-breaker paused: game (negative rolling CLV).

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L
-$286.24
after $1.20 costs
Realized
-$285.04
36 settled
At risk
$12.61
1 open
ROI
-25.1%
on settled stake
Record
10–26
W–L
Match winner · PAUSED · CLV -14% (17)Over/Under · -44% ROI · CLV – (11)Both teams to score · -54% ROI · CLV +8% (8)
MatchBetOur ProbKalshi ProbNet EdgeCostStatusP&L
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar🇶🇦Qatar22%12¢+5.6%$12.61Placed–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay🇵🇾Paraguay37%25¢+6.4%$74.40Won+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast🇨🇮Ivory Coast25%17¢+4.4%$28.56Lost-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran🇮🇷Iran22%13¢+4.9%$15.86Lost-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia🇦🇺Australia30%18¢+6.0%$74.95Lost-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺AustraliaDraw20%13¢+3.0%$17.03Lost-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco🇲🇦Morocco89%80¢+3.2%$8.00Won+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland16%5¢+6.8%$0.10Lost-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹HaitiOver 3.5 goals75%46¢+23.0%$58.88Lost-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹HaitiDraw20%10¢+5.5%$15.46Lost-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay🇹🇷Turkey44%25¢+12.6%$25.04Lost-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden🇸🇪Sweden18%10¢+4.3%$14.64Lost-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪SwedenOver 2.5 goals89%78¢+5.3%$67.08Won+18.92
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿AlgeriaBoth score62%46¢+9.6%$39.56Won+46.44
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷IranBoth score60%48¢+6.5%$32.64Lost-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaBoth score41%31¢+4.0%$19.84Lost-19.84
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼CuracaoOver 2.5 goals62%43¢+12.9%$42.45Lost-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼CuracaoBoth score19%10¢+5.2%$14.52Lost-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵JapanOver 2.5 goals90%68¢+15.5%$38.08Won+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape VerdeOver 4.5 goals43%16¢+23.4%$34.24Lost-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape VerdeDraw100%86¢+10.0%$74.72Won+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt🇳🇿New Zealand26%16¢+6.2%$47.42Lost-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹AustriaDraw27%13¢+10.5%$26.06Lost-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹AustriaOver 2.5 goals51%41¢+4.1%$13.12Lost-13.12
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶IraqOver 3.5 goals45%27¢+11.8%$18.36Lost-18.36
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶IraqBoth score33%21¢+5.5%$15.98Lost-15.98
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal🇳🇴Norway50%39¢+5.1%$56.36Won+36.64
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria🇯🇴Jordan27%14¢+8.8%$39.99Lost-39.99
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿AlgeriaOver 2.5 goals55%34¢+14.8%$22.78Won+44.22
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿UzbekistanBoth score33%20¢+6.7%$26.41Lost-26.41
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭GhanaOver 2.5 goals55%35¢+14.3%$19.95Lost-19.95
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia🇭🇷Croatia68%51¢+11.4%$29.58Won+28.42
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷CroatiaBoth score42%27¢+8.9%$22.53Lost-22.53
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷CroatiaOver 2.5 goals56%27¢+23.0%$29.16Lost-29.16
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR CongoOver 1.5 goals62%45¢+10.9%$28.65Lost-28.65
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR CongoBoth score32%20¢+5.7%$16.70Lost-16.70
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo🇨🇴Colombia65%43¢+15.6%$24.94Won+33.06

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 22 graded

Accuracy 73% ±19% · always-favorite baseline 50% · Brier 0.484 (base-rate 0.624) · skill +22.5% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 22 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~28 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM
🇨🇭Switzerland
1.1 – 1.0projected goals
🇨🇦Canada
Switzerland 41% · draw 28% · Canada 31%total 2.1 goals
Bookmakers: Switzerland 39% · draw 32% · Canada 29%
Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.4 – 1.2projected goals
🇶🇦Qatar
Bosnia and Herzegovina 56% · draw 23% · Qatar 22%total 2.6 goals
Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM
🇲🇦Morocco
1.6 – 0.6projected goals
🇭🇹Haiti
Morocco 72% · draw 18% · Haiti 10%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: Morocco 84% · draw 12% · Haiti 4%
Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland
0.9 – 2.0projected goals
🇧🇷Brazil
Scotland 15% · draw 20% · Brazil 65%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Scotland 9% · draw 16% · Brazil 75%
Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM
🇨🇿Czech Republic
1.0 – 1.5projected goals
🇲🇽Mexico
Czech Republic 22% · draw 25% · Mexico 53%total 2.5 goals
Bookmakers: Czech Republic 25% · draw 24% · Mexico 50%
Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM
🇿🇦South Africa
0.8 – 1.5projected goals
🇰🇷South Korea
South Africa 15% · draw 21% · South Korea 65%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: South Africa 16% · draw 24% · South Korea 61%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM
🇪🇨Ecuador
1.1 – 0.9projected goals
🇩🇪Germany
Ecuador 33% · draw 28% · Germany 39%total 2.0 goals
Bookmakers: Ecuador 25% · draw 23% · Germany 52%
Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM
🇨🇼Curacao
0.6 – 1.9projected goals
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
Curacao 8% · draw 16% · Ivory Coast 76%total 2.5 goals
Bookmakers: Curacao 4% · draw 10% · Ivory Coast 86%
Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM
🇹🇳Tunisia
0.8 – 1.5projected goals
🇳🇱Netherlands
Tunisia 11% · draw 18% · Netherlands 71%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: Tunisia 3% · draw 8% · Netherlands 89%
Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM
🇯🇵Japan
2.1 – 0.9projected goals
🇸🇪Sweden
Japan 55% · draw 23% · Sweden 22%total 3.0 goals
Bookmakers: Japan 52% · draw 27% · Sweden 22%
Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM
🇹🇷Turkey
1.5 – 1.3projected goals
🇺🇸United States
Turkey 41% · draw 26% · United States 34%total 2.8 goals
Bookmakers: Turkey 26% · draw 23% · United States 51%
Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM
🇵🇾Paraguay
0.9 – 1.1projected goals
🇦🇺Australia
Paraguay 36% · draw 28% · Australia 36%total 2.0 goals
Bookmakers: Paraguay 33% · draw 43% · Australia 24%
Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM
🇳🇴Norway
1.2 – 1.5projected goals
🇫🇷France
Norway 25% · draw 25% · France 51%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: Norway 20% · draw 21% · France 59%
Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM
🇸🇳Senegal
1.7 – 0.7projected goals
🇮🇶Iraq
Senegal 73% · draw 17% · Iraq 10%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Senegal 80% · draw 13% · Iraq 6%
Group stageJun 26, 8:00 PM
🇺🇾Uruguay
0.9 – 1.2projected goals
🇪🇸Spain
Uruguay 20% · draw 25% · Spain 55%total 2.1 goals
Bookmakers: Uruguay 13% · draw 22% · Spain 65%
Group stageJun 26, 8:00 PM
🇨🇻Cape Verde
1.1 – 1.2projected goals
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
Cape Verde 37% · draw 27% · Saudi Arabia 36%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: Cape Verde 39% · draw 28% · Saudi Arabia 33%

Who wins the World Cup

TeamRatingModelMarket
🇪🇸Spain211323.2%14.3%
🇦🇷Argentina206818.3%12.2%
🇫🇷France209317.3%18.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England206914.1%11.9%
🇵🇹Portugal19964.9%7.9%
🇳🇱Netherlands19924.1%5.2%
🇩🇪Germany19883.8%5.7%
🇧🇷Brazil19883.2%5.3%
🇳🇴Norway19512.2%2.6%
🇧🇪Belgium19341.7%1.5%
🇨🇴Colombia19261.6%1.5%
🇺🇸United States18561.6%2.6%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

DateMatchScore
Jun 23, 10:00 PM🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo1–0
Jun 23, 7:00 PM🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia0–1
Jun 23, 4:00 PM🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭Ghana0–0
Jun 23, 1:00 PM🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan5–0
Jun 22, 11:00 PM🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria1–2
Jun 22, 8:00 PM🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal3–2
Jun 22, 5:00 PM🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq3–0
Jun 22, 1:00 PM🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria2–0
Jun 21, 9:00 PM🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia4–0

Groups

Group APWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇲🇽Mexico2200+367.9100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea2101+035.295.3%
🇨🇿Czech Republic2011-111.821.5%
🇿🇦South Africa2011-211.613.1%
Group BPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇦Canada2110+645.2100.0%
🇨🇭Switzerland2110+345.5100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina2011-313.369.7%
🇶🇦Qatar2011-611.512.1%
Group CPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇷Brazil2110+346.2100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco2110+146.6100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland2101+033.681.8%
🇭🇹Haiti2002-400.30.0%
Group DPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇺🇸United States2200+567.3100.0%
🇦🇺Australia2101+034.291.0%
🇵🇾Paraguay2101-234.586.4%
🇹🇷Turkey2002-301.40.0%
Group EPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇩🇪Germany2200+767.8100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast2101+035.798.4%
🇪🇨Ecuador2011-112.025.0%
🇨🇼Curacao2011-611.24.3%
Group FPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇳🇱Netherlands2110+446.7100.0%
🇯🇵Japan2110+445.6100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden2101+034.295.9%
🇹🇳Tunisia2002-800.20.0%
Group GPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇬Egypt2110+245.7100.0%
🇮🇷Iran2020+023.154.2%
🇧🇪Belgium2020+024.796.8%
🇳🇿New Zealand2011-211.23.2%
Group HPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇸Spain2110+446.2100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay2020+022.636.7%
🇨🇻Cape Verde2020+023.567.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia2011-412.333.3%
Group IPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇫🇷France2200+567.9100.0%
🇳🇴Norway2200+466.8100.0%
🇸🇳Senegal2002-302.678.8%
🇮🇶Iraq2002-600.32.2%
Group JPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇦🇷Argentina2200+568.9100.0%
🇦🇹Austria2101+034.494.5%
🇩🇿Algeria2101-234.384.4%
🇯🇴Jordan2002-300.10.0%
Group KPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇴Colombia2200+367.1100.0%
🇵🇹Portugal2110+545.7100.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo2011-112.646.3%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan2002-701.210.4%
Group LPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England2110+246.8100.0%
🇬🇭Ghana2110+144.6100.0%
🇭🇷Croatia2101-135.297.5%
🇵🇦Panama2002-200.10.0%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

TeamGrpRatingLast 32Last 16QuartersSemisFinalChampion
🇪🇸SpainH2113100.0%86.7%65.7%54.3%36.1%23.2%
🇦🇷ArgentinaJ2068100.0%92.3%75.3%54.8%31.5%18.3%
🇫🇷FranceI2093100.0%90.2%64.3%46.2%31.0%17.3%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandL2069100.0%87.5%67.6%46.1%26.8%14.1%
🇵🇹PortugalK1996100.0%77.7%44.5%23.0%10.8%4.9%
🇳🇱NetherlandsF1992100.0%61.6%44.3%19.7%9.3%4.1%
🇩🇪GermanyE1988100.0%83.7%34.3%20.5%9.6%3.8%
🇧🇷BrazilC1988100.0%62.6%37.3%17.2%8.1%3.2%
🇳🇴NorwayI1951100.0%72.1%37.9%16.8%6.2%2.2%
🇧🇪BelgiumG193496.8%73.5%28.5%12.7%4.7%1.7%
🇨🇴ColombiaK1926100.0%69.2%34.7%14.4%5.0%1.6%
🇺🇸United StatesD1856100.0%77.1%48.7%14.6%5.1%1.6%
🇲🇦MoroccoC1910100.0%46.5%25.2%8.2%2.6%0.7%
🇨🇭SwitzerlandB1887100.0%71.0%29.2%8.3%2.6%0.7%
🇲🇽MexicoA1841100.0%61.2%17.4%6.8%2.1%0.7%
🇭🇷CroatiaL189597.5%39.9%15.3%6.0%1.9%0.4%
🇸🇳SenegalI186778.8%38.1%16.5%4.6%1.2%0.3%
🇨🇦CanadaB1797100.0%63.6%21.5%4.8%1.2%0.3%
🇯🇵JapanF1864100.0%36.2%14.1%4.0%0.9%0.2%
🇺🇾UruguayH189436.7%17.5%8.0%3.1%0.9%0.2%
🇪🇨EcuadorE188825.0%12.5%5.7%1.7%0.6%0.1%
🇩🇿AlgeriaJ180484.4%24.2%8.6%1.8%0.3%0.1%
🇨🇮Ivory CoastE183198.4%26.9%8.7%2.0%0.4%<0.1%
🇸🇪SwedenF181195.9%29.2%8.5%2.0%0.3%<0.1%
🇦🇹AustriaJ182594.5%21.5%7.6%2.1%0.4%<0.1%
🇰🇷South KoreaA175795.3%31.1%6.3%0.7%0.1%<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech RepublicA174521.5%8.3%2.3%0.3%<0.1%<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandC176781.8%17.5%3.3%0.5%<0.1%<0.1%
🇦🇺AustraliaD170891.0%22.6%2.0%0.5%<0.1%<0.1%
🇿🇦South AfricaA153413.1%1.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇶🇦QatarB142112.1%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaB165769.7%9.2%2.1%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇭🇹HaitiC15600.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇵🇾ParaguayD174686.4%21.4%2.5%0.6%<0.1%0.0%
🇹🇷TurkeyD19110.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇼CuracaoE14484.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇹🇳TunisiaF16010.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇪🇬EgyptG1707100.0%33.1%6.5%0.7%<0.1%0.0%
🇮🇷IranG163754.2%12.0%1.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇳🇿New ZealandG15193.2%0.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇻Cape VerdeH157667.0%2.4%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaH155433.3%0.8%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇶IraqI15162.2%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇯🇴JordanJ15330.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇺🇿UzbekistanK166910.4%0.6%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇩DR CongoK171646.3%3.8%1.0%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇬🇭GhanaL1682100.0%12.6%2.8%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇵🇦PanamaL15900.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.