⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Monday, June 29 2026 at 5:30 PM

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L

-$478.84

after $15.53 costs

Realized

-$463.31

68 settled

At risk

$18.61

2 open

ROI

-27.9%

on settled stake

Record

15–53

W–L

Match winner · -24% ROI · CLV -11% (35)Over/Under · -27% ROI · CLV – (22)Both teams to score · -43% ROI · CLV +8% (11)

Match	Bet	Our Prob	Kalshi Prob	Net Edge	Cost	Status	P&L
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	Over 2.5 goals	54%	40¢	+7.9%	$6.40	Placed	–
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	Draw	63%	33¢	+24.5%	$12.21	Placed	–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$74.40	Won	+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	17¢	+4.4%	$28.56	Lost	-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	22%	13¢	+4.9%	$15.86	Lost	-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	30%	18¢	+6.0%	$74.95	Lost	-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	20%	13¢	+3.0%	$17.03	Lost	-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	89%	80¢	+3.2%	$8.00	Won	+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	16%	5¢	+6.8%	$0.10	Lost	-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	75%	46¢	+23.0%	$58.88	Lost	-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	20%	10¢	+5.5%	$15.46	Lost	-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	44%	25¢	+12.6%	$25.04	Lost	-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	18%	10¢	+4.3%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	89%	78¢	+5.3%	$67.08	Won	+18.92
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$39.56	Won	+46.44
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both score	60%	48¢	+6.5%	$32.64	Lost	-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19.84	Lost	-19.84
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇶🇦Qatar	21%	13¢	+3.7%	$12.61	Lost	-12.61
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 2.5 goals	62%	43¢	+12.9%	$42.45	Lost	-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Both score	19%	10¢	+5.2%	$14.52	Lost	-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	90%	68¢	+15.5%	$38.08	Won	+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 4.5 goals	43%	16¢	+23.4%	$34.24	Lost	-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	86¢	+10.0%	$74.72	Won	+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	🇳🇿New Zealand	26%	16¢	+6.2%	$47.42	Lost	-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Draw	27%	13¢	+10.5%	$26.06	Lost	-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	51%	41¢	+4.1%	$13.12	Lost	-13.12
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Over 3.5 goals	45%	27¢	+11.8%	$18.36	Lost	-18.36
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Both score	33%	21¢	+5.5%	$15.98	Lost	-15.98
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	🇳🇴Norway	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$56.36	Won	+36.64
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	🇯🇴Jordan	27%	14¢	+8.8%	$39.99	Lost	-39.99
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Over 2.5 goals	55%	34¢	+14.8%	$22.78	Won	+44.22
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	Both score	33%	20¢	+6.7%	$26.41	Lost	-26.41
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭Ghana	Over 2.5 goals	55%	35¢	+14.3%	$19.95	Lost	-19.95
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	🇭🇷Croatia	68%	51¢	+11.4%	$29.58	Won	+28.42
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Both score	42%	27¢	+8.9%	$22.53	Lost	-22.53
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Over 2.5 goals	56%	27¢	+23.0%	$29.16	Lost	-29.16
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Over 1.5 goals	62%	45¢	+10.9%	$28.65	Lost	-28.65
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Both score	32%	20¢	+5.7%	$16.70	Lost	-16.70
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	🇨🇴Colombia	65%	43¢	+15.6%	$24.94	Won	+33.06
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇨🇦Canada	Over 2.5 goals	43%	27¢	+10.3%	$21.98	Won	+68.02
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇨🇦Canada	Both score	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$11.25	Won	+33.75
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇧🇷Brazil	Both score	52%	40¢	+5.9%	$15.20	Lost	-15.20
🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇲🇽Mexico	Over 2.5 goals	50%	29¢	+14.6%	$31.30	Won	+84.70
🇿🇦South Africa vs 🇰🇷South Korea	Over 2.5 goals	42%	27¢	+8.9%	$24.66	Lost	-24.66
🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇲🇽Mexico	Both score	38%	24¢	+7.8%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇩🇪Germany	🇩🇪Germany	55%	31¢	+17.8%	$36.58	Lost	-36.58
🇨🇼Curacao vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	Over 3.5 goals	39%	23¢	+10.4%	$27.87	Lost	-27.87
🇯🇵Japan vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	54%	25¢	+23.0%	$34.75	Lost	-34.75
🇯🇵Japan vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇯🇵Japan	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$25.37	Lost	-25.37
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇺🇸United States	🇺🇸United States	41%	21¢	+14.2%	$19.11	Lost	-19.11
🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇦🇺Australia	Over 0.5 goals	66%	50¢	+10.2%	$28.07	Lost	-28.07
🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇵🇾Paraguay	32%	17¢	+11.3%	$16.79	Lost	-16.79
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇫🇷France	🇳🇴Norway	16%	5¢	+6.9%	$6.70	Lost	-6.70
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇪🇸Spain	Draw	55%	29¢	+20.2%	$20.59	Lost	-20.59
🇨🇻Cape Verde vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Draw	59%	31¢	+21.5%	$20.15	Won	+44.85
🇨🇻Cape Verde vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Over 2.5 goals	43%	25¢	+11.7%	$10.50	Lost	-10.50
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇪🇸Spain	Over 2.5 goals	44%	31¢	+6.5%	$12.38	Lost	-12.38
🇪🇬Egypt vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	41%	29¢	+5.8%	$8.99	Lost	-8.99
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇧🇪Belgium	🇳🇿New Zealand	16%	6¢	+6.3%	$5.94	Lost	-5.94
🇵🇦Panama vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	Draw	21%	11¢	+5.9%	$5.72	Lost	-5.72
🇭🇷Croatia vs 🇬🇭Ghana	Draw	52%	33¢	+12.5%	$13.53	Lost	-13.53
🇵🇦Panama vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	Over 2.5 goals	51%	30¢	+14.6%	$13.50	Lost	-13.50
🇭🇷Croatia vs 🇬🇭Ghana	Over 1.5 goals	100%	85¢	+11.0%	$26.35	Won	+4.65
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇵🇹Portugal	🇨🇴Colombia	38%	26¢	+5.9%	$7.02	Lost	-7.02
🇨🇩DR Congo vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	Draw	38%	25¢	+7.4%	$7.75	Lost	-7.75
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇵🇹Portugal	Over 2.5 goals	55%	39¢	+10.1%	$10.53	Lost	-10.53
🇩🇿Algeria vs 🇦🇹Austria	🇩🇿Algeria	44%	29¢	+9.4%	$8.12	Lost	-8.12
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇦🇷Argentina	Draw	35%	12¢	+18.8%	$9.36	Lost	-9.36
🇿🇦South Africa vs 🇨🇦Canada	Draw	57%	32¢	+18.6%	$12.16	Lost	-12.16
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇯🇵Japan	Draw	43%	29¢	+7.8%	$5.80	Lost	-5.80

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in). Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 48 graded

Accuracy 71% ±13% · always-favorite baseline 44% · Brier 0.448 (base-rate 0.645) · skill +30.5% · 14 pending

⚠️ Only 48 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~2 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Round of 32Jun 29, 4:30 PM

🇩🇪Germany

1.5 – 1.1projected goals

🇵🇾Paraguay

Germany 63% · draw 20% · Paraguay 17%Germany advance 79% · total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Germany 73% · draw 18% · Paraguay 9%

Round of 32Jun 29, 9:00 PM

🇳🇱Netherlands

0.9 – 1.2projected goals

🇲🇦Morocco

Netherlands 39% · draw 26% · Morocco 35%Netherlands advance 55% · total 2.1 goals

Bookmakers: Netherlands 41% · draw 31% · Morocco 28%

Upcoming matches

Round of 32Jun 30, 1:00 PM

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

1.2 – 1.3projected goals

🇳🇴Norway

Ivory Coast 28% · draw 25% · Norway 47%Ivory Coast advance 37% · total 2.5 goals

Bookmakers: Ivory Coast 27% · draw 27% · Norway 46%

Round of 32Jun 30, 5:00 PM

🇫🇷France

2.5 – 1.1projected goals

🇸🇪Sweden

France 78% · draw 13% · Sweden 9%France advance 89% · total 3.5 goals

Bookmakers: France 78% · draw 15% · Sweden 8%

Round of 32Jun 30, 9:00 PM

🇲🇽Mexico

0.7 – 1.0projected goals

🇪🇨Ecuador

Mexico 30% · draw 29% · Ecuador 40%Mexico advance 45% · total 1.7 goals

Bookmakers: Mexico 43% · draw 33% · Ecuador 24%

Round of 32Jul 1, 12:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

1.2 – 0.6projected goals

🇨🇩DR Congo

England 70% · draw 20% · DR Congo 10%England advance 87% · total 1.8 goals

Bookmakers: England 77% · draw 16% · DR Congo 7%

Round of 32Jul 1, 4:00 PM

🇧🇪Belgium

1.4 – 1.3projected goals

🇸🇳Senegal

Belgium 44% · draw 25% · Senegal 32%Belgium advance 58% · total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Belgium 44% · draw 29% · Senegal 27%

Round of 32Jul 1, 8:00 PM

🇺🇸United States

1.7 – 1.0projected goals

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina

United States 65% · draw 20% · Bosnia and Herzegovina 16%United States advance 80% · total 2.7 goals

Round of 32Jul 2, 3:00 PM

🇪🇸Spain

1.9 – 0.9projected goals

🇦🇹Austria

Spain 74% · draw 16% · Austria 10%Spain advance 88% · total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Spain 75% · draw 17% · Austria 8%

Round of 32Jul 2, 7:00 PM

🇵🇹Portugal

1.6 – 1.0projected goals

🇭🇷Croatia

Portugal 53% · draw 24% · Croatia 24%Portugal advance 67% · total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Portugal 55% · draw 26% · Croatia 19%

Round of 32Jul 2, 11:00 PM

🇨🇭Switzerland

1.3 – 1.5projected goals

🇩🇿Algeria

Switzerland 42% · draw 24% · Algeria 34%Switzerland advance 57% · total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Switzerland 47% · draw 29% · Algeria 24%

Round of 32Jul 3, 2:00 PM

🇦🇺Australia

1.1 – 0.9projected goals

🇪🇬Egypt

Australia 41% · draw 28% · Egypt 31%Australia advance 56% · total 2.0 goals

Bookmakers: Australia 28% · draw 33% · Egypt 39%

Round of 32Jul 3, 6:00 PM

🇦🇷Argentina

2.4 – 0.4projected goals

🇨🇻Cape Verde

Argentina 91% · draw 7% · Cape Verde 2%Argentina advance 98% · total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Argentina 85% · draw 11% · Cape Verde 4%

Round of 32Jul 3, 9:30 PM

🇨🇴Colombia

2.1 – 0.7projected goals

🇬🇭Ghana

Colombia 76% · draw 16% · Ghana 9%Colombia advance 88% · total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Colombia 64% · draw 24% · Ghana 12%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2124	23.4%	10.9%
🇦🇷Argentina	2074	18.5%	17.7%
🇫🇷France	2113	17.8%	20.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2079	13.5%	11.3%
🇧🇷Brazil	2025	8.9%	7.8%
🇩🇪Germany	1975	3.8%	4.5%
🇨🇴Colombia	1940	3.0%	2.6%
🇵🇹Portugal	1987	2.4%	6.4%
🇳🇱Netherlands	2000	2.2%	4.9%
🇧🇪Belgium	1942	1.5%	1.5%
🇳🇴Norway	1940	1.1%	2.2%
🇺🇸United States	1844	0.8%	2.3%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 29, 1:00 PM	🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇯🇵Japan	2–1
Jun 28, 3:00 PM	🇿🇦South Africa vs 🇨🇦Canada	0–1
Jun 27, 10:00 PM	🇩🇿Algeria vs 🇦🇹Austria	3–3
Jun 27, 10:00 PM	🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇦🇷Argentina	1–3
Jun 27, 7:30 PM	🇨🇩DR Congo vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	3–1
Jun 27, 7:30 PM	🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇵🇹Portugal	0–0
Jun 27, 5:00 PM	🇭🇷Croatia vs 🇬🇭Ghana	2–1
Jun 27, 5:00 PM	🇵🇦Panama vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	0–2
Jun 26, 11:00 PM	🇪🇬Egypt vs 🇮🇷Iran	1–1
Jun 26, 11:00 PM	🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇧🇪Belgium	1–5
Jun 26, 8:00 PM	🇨🇻Cape Verde vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	0–0
Jun 26, 8:00 PM	🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇪🇸Spain	0–1

Groups

Group A	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	3	3	0	0	+6	9	9.0	100.0%
🇿🇦South Africa	3	1	1	1	-1	4	4.0	100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	3	1	0	2	-1	3	3.0	0.0%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	3	0	1	2	-4	1	1.0	0.0%

Group B	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇭Switzerland	3	2	1	0	+4	7	7.0	100.0%
🇨🇦Canada	3	1	1	1	+5	4	4.0	100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	-1	4	4.0	100.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	3	0	1	2	-8	1	1.0	0.0%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	3	2	1	0	+6	7	7.0	100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	3	2	1	0	+3	7	7.0	100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	3	1	0	2	-3	3	3.0	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	3	0	0	3	-6	0	0.0	0.0%

Group D	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	3	2	0	1	+4	6	6.0	100.0%
🇦🇺Australia	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇵🇾Paraguay	3	1	1	1	-2	4	4.0	100.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	3	1	0	2	-2	3	3.0	0.0%

Group E	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	3	2	0	1	+6	6	6.0	100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	+2	6	6.0	100.0%
🇪🇨Ecuador	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	3	0	1	2	-8	1	1.0	0.0%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇱Netherlands	3	2	1	0	+6	7	7.0	100.0%
🇯🇵Japan	3	1	2	0	+4	5	5.0	100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	3	0	0	3	-10	0	0.0	0.0%

Group G	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇪Belgium	3	1	2	0	+4	5	5.0	100.0%
🇪🇬Egypt	3	1	2	0	+2	5	5.0	100.0%
🇮🇷Iran	3	0	3	0	+0	3	3.0	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	3	0	1	2	-6	1	1.0	0.0%

Group H	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	3	2	1	0	+5	7	7.0	100.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	3	0	3	0	+0	3	3.0	100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	3	0	2	1	-1	2	2.0	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	-4	2	2.0	0.0%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇫🇷France	3	3	0	+8	9	9.0	100.0%
🇳🇴Norway	3	2	1	+1	6	6.0	100.0%
🇸🇳Senegal	3	1	2	+2	3	3.0	100.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	3	0	3	-11	0	0.0	0.0%

Group J	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	3	3	0	0	+7	9	9.0	100.0%
🇦🇹Austria	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇩🇿Algeria	3	1	1	1	-2	4	4.0	100.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	3	0	0	3	-5	0	0.0	0.0%

Group K	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇴Colombia	3	2	1	0	+3	7	7.0	100.0%
🇵🇹Portugal	3	1	2	0	+5	5	5.0	100.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	3	1	1	1	+1	4	4.0	100.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	-9	0	0.0	0.0%

Group L	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	3	2	1	0	+4	7	7.0	100.0%
🇭🇷Croatia	3	2	0	1	+0	6	6.0	100.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100.0%
🇵🇦Panama	3	0	0	3	-4	0	0.0	0.0%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2124	100.0%	90.3%	68.4%	56.3%	37.7%	23.4%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2074	100.0%	98.0%	78.4%	60.8%	33.4%	18.5%
🇫🇷France	I	2113	100.0%	90.3%	66.3%	41.9%	30.0%	17.8%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2079	100.0%	92.7%	71.5%	37.1%	25.0%	13.5%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	2025	100.0%	100.0%	68.8%	45.9%	19.1%	8.9%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1975	100.0%	84.9%	60.1%	28.7%	10.0%	3.8%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1940	100.0%	86.1%	72.1%	25.8%	8.6%	3.0%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1987	100.0%	64.5%	21.2%	13.8%	6.5%	2.4%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	2000	100.0%	63.3%	22.4%	10.2%	5.7%	2.2%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1942	100.0%	60.0%	37.6%	11.2%	4.5%	1.5%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1940	100.0%	66.5%	24.2%	12.8%	3.5%	1.1%
🇺🇸United States	D	1844	100.0%	83.0%	38.5%	9.2%	3.1%	0.8%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1901	100.0%	62.3%	15.3%	8.3%	2.4%	0.6%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1907	100.0%	50.5%	13.5%	3.7%	1.5%	0.4%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1881	100.0%	40.0%	21.6%	4.6%	1.6%	0.4%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1918	100.0%	36.7%	9.1%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1851	100.0%	49.5%	13.4%	3.3%	1.3%	0.4%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1900	100.0%	35.5%	7.7%	3.8%	1.3%	0.4%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1792	100.0%	100.0%	35.1%	9.5%	1.9%	0.3%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1822	100.0%	37.7%	6.0%	2.5%	0.4%	0.1%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1808	100.0%	9.7%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%	<0.1%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1805	100.0%	9.7%	2.2%	0.5%	0.2%	<0.1%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1840	100.0%	33.5%	7.0%	2.5%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1719	100.0%	56.0%	12.8%	1.5%	0.2%	<0.1%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1737	100.0%	7.3%	1.7%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1548	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1730	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1735	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1406	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1665	100.0%	17.0%	2.3%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1551	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1752	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1732	100.0%	15.1%	4.8%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1927	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1436	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1855	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1594	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1693	100.0%	44.0%	9.0%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1644	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1509	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1587	100.0%	2.0%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1535	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1890	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1498	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1525	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1644	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1679	100.0%	13.9%	6.1%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1581	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.