⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Wednesday, June 24 2026 at 7:30 AM
⚠️ xG feed unavailable (monthly usage limit exceeded).
⚠️ Circuit-breaker paused: game (negative rolling CLV).

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L
-$286.24
after $1.20 costs
Realized
-$285.04
36 settled
At risk
$12.61
1 open
ROI
-25.1%
on settled stake
Record
10–26
W–L
Match winner · PAUSED · CLV -11% (17)Over/Under · -44% ROI · CLV – (11)Both teams to score · -54% ROI · CLV +8% (8)
MatchBetOur ProbKalshi ProbNet EdgeCostStatusP&L
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar🇶🇦Qatar21%13¢+3.7%$12.61Placed–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay🇵🇾Paraguay37%25¢+6.4%$74.40Won+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast🇨🇮Ivory Coast25%17¢+4.4%$28.56Lost-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran🇮🇷Iran22%13¢+4.9%$15.86Lost-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia🇦🇺Australia30%18¢+6.0%$74.95Lost-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺AustraliaDraw20%13¢+3.0%$17.03Lost-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco🇲🇦Morocco89%80¢+3.2%$8.00Won+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland16%5¢+6.8%$0.10Lost-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹HaitiOver 3.5 goals75%46¢+23.0%$58.88Lost-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹HaitiDraw20%10¢+5.5%$15.46Lost-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay🇹🇷Turkey44%25¢+12.6%$25.04Lost-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden🇸🇪Sweden18%10¢+4.3%$14.64Lost-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪SwedenOver 2.5 goals89%78¢+5.3%$67.08Won+18.92
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿AlgeriaBoth score62%46¢+9.6%$39.56Won+46.44
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷IranBoth score60%48¢+6.5%$32.64Lost-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaBoth score41%31¢+4.0%$19.84Lost-19.84
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼CuracaoOver 2.5 goals62%43¢+12.9%$42.45Lost-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼CuracaoBoth score19%10¢+5.2%$14.52Lost-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵JapanOver 2.5 goals90%68¢+15.5%$38.08Won+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape VerdeOver 4.5 goals43%16¢+23.4%$34.24Lost-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape VerdeDraw100%86¢+10.0%$74.72Won+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt🇳🇿New Zealand26%16¢+6.2%$47.42Lost-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹AustriaDraw27%13¢+10.5%$26.06Lost-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹AustriaOver 2.5 goals51%41¢+4.1%$13.12Lost-13.12
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶IraqOver 3.5 goals45%27¢+11.8%$18.36Lost-18.36
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶IraqBoth score33%21¢+5.5%$15.98Lost-15.98
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal🇳🇴Norway50%39¢+5.1%$56.36Won+36.64
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria🇯🇴Jordan27%14¢+8.8%$39.99Lost-39.99
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿AlgeriaOver 2.5 goals55%34¢+14.8%$22.78Won+44.22
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿UzbekistanBoth score33%20¢+6.7%$26.41Lost-26.41
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭GhanaOver 2.5 goals55%35¢+14.3%$19.95Lost-19.95
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia🇭🇷Croatia68%51¢+11.4%$29.58Won+28.42
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷CroatiaBoth score42%27¢+8.9%$22.53Lost-22.53
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷CroatiaOver 2.5 goals56%27¢+23.0%$29.16Lost-29.16
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR CongoOver 1.5 goals62%45¢+10.9%$28.65Lost-28.65
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR CongoBoth score32%20¢+5.7%$16.70Lost-16.70
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo🇨🇴Colombia65%43¢+15.6%$24.94Won+33.06

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 22 graded

Accuracy 73% ±19% · always-favorite baseline 50% · Brier 0.484 (base-rate 0.624) · skill +22.5% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 22 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~28 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM
🇨🇭Switzerland
1.2 – 1.2projected goals
🇨🇦Canada
Switzerland 41% · draw 26% · Canada 33%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Switzerland 41% · draw 31% · Canada 28%
Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.5 – 1.2projected goals
🇶🇦Qatar
Bosnia and Herzegovina 61% · draw 20% · Qatar 19%total 2.7 goals
Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM
🇲🇦Morocco
1.9 – 0.7projected goals
🇭🇹Haiti
Morocco 78% · draw 14% · Haiti 7%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: Morocco 83% · draw 12% · Haiti 5%
Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland
0.9 – 2.3projected goals
🇧🇷Brazil
Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%total 3.2 goals
Bookmakers: Scotland 9% · draw 16% · Brazil 75%
Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM
🇨🇿Czech Republic
1.0 – 1.7projected goals
🇲🇽Mexico
Czech Republic 19% · draw 22% · Mexico 59%total 2.7 goals
Bookmakers: Czech Republic 25% · draw 24% · Mexico 50%
Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM
🇿🇦South Africa
0.8 – 1.5projected goals
🇰🇷South Korea
South Africa 15% · draw 21% · South Korea 64%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: South Africa 17% · draw 24% · South Korea 59%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM
🇪🇨Ecuador
1.1 – 1.0projected goals
🇩🇪Germany
Ecuador 32% · draw 26% · Germany 42%total 2.1 goals
Bookmakers: Ecuador 25% · draw 23% · Germany 52%
Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM
🇨🇼Curacao
0.6 – 2.1projected goals
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
Curacao 5% · draw 12% · Ivory Coast 83%total 2.8 goals
Bookmakers: Curacao 4% · draw 10% · Ivory Coast 85%
Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM
🇹🇳Tunisia
0.9 – 1.8projected goals
🇳🇱Netherlands
Tunisia 9% · draw 14% · Netherlands 77%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: Tunisia 3% · draw 9% · Netherlands 88%
Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM
🇯🇵Japan
2.4 – 0.9projected goals
🇸🇪Sweden
Japan 61% · draw 20% · Sweden 19%total 3.3 goals
Bookmakers: Japan 51% · draw 27% · Sweden 22%
Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM
🇹🇷Turkey
1.8 – 1.4projected goals
🇺🇸United States
Turkey 43% · draw 24% · United States 34%total 3.2 goals
Bookmakers: Turkey 26% · draw 23% · United States 51%
Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM
🇵🇾Paraguay
0.9 – 1.1projected goals
🇦🇺Australia
Paraguay 36% · draw 28% · Australia 36%total 2.0 goals
Bookmakers: Paraguay 33% · draw 43% · Australia 24%
Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM
🇳🇴Norway
1.3 – 1.7projected goals
🇫🇷France
Norway 24% · draw 22% · France 54%total 3.0 goals
Bookmakers: Norway 20% · draw 22% · France 59%
Group stageJun 26, 3:00 PM
🇸🇳Senegal
1.7 – 0.8projected goals
🇮🇶Iraq
Senegal 76% · draw 15% · Iraq 9%total 2.5 goals
Bookmakers: Senegal 81% · draw 13% · Iraq 6%
Group stageJun 26, 8:00 PM
🇺🇾Uruguay
0.9 – 1.4projected goals
🇪🇸Spain
Uruguay 17% · draw 22% · Spain 61%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: Uruguay 13% · draw 22% · Spain 65%
Group stageJun 26, 8:00 PM
🇨🇻Cape Verde
1.1 – 1.2projected goals
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
Cape Verde 37% · draw 27% · Saudi Arabia 36%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: Cape Verde 39% · draw 28% · Saudi Arabia 33%

Who wins the World Cup

TeamRatingModelMarket
🇪🇸Spain211122.4%14.2%
🇫🇷France209218.4%18.3%
🇦🇷Argentina206718.1%12.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England205312.3%11.7%
🇵🇹Portugal19965.3%7.7%
🇩🇪Germany19874.4%5.6%
🇳🇱Netherlands19913.9%5.2%
🇧🇷Brazil19873.5%5.3%
🇳🇴Norway19502.3%2.6%
🇨🇴Colombia19261.8%1.8%
🇺🇸United States18551.6%2.5%
🇧🇪Belgium19331.4%1.5%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

DateMatchScore
Jun 23, 10:00 PM🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo1–0
Jun 23, 7:00 PM🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia0–1
Jun 23, 4:00 PM🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭Ghana0–0
Jun 23, 1:00 PM🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan5–0
Jun 22, 11:00 PM🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria1–2
Jun 22, 8:00 PM🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal3–2
Jun 22, 5:00 PM🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq3–0
Jun 22, 1:00 PM🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria2–0
Jun 21, 9:00 PM🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia4–0

Groups

Group APWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇲🇽Mexico2200+367.9100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea2101+035.295.5%
🇨🇿Czech Republic2011-111.821.7%
🇿🇦South Africa2011-211.613.4%
Group BPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇦Canada2110+645.2100.0%
🇨🇭Switzerland2110+345.5100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina2011-313.368.8%
🇶🇦Qatar2011-611.612.0%
Group CPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇷Brazil2110+346.2100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco2110+146.6100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland2101+033.682.3%
🇭🇹Haiti2002-400.30.0%
Group DPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇺🇸United States2200+567.3100.0%
🇦🇺Australia2101+034.291.2%
🇵🇾Paraguay2101-234.586.7%
🇹🇷Turkey2002-301.40.0%
Group EPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇩🇪Germany2200+767.7100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast2101+035.798.5%
🇪🇨Ecuador2011-112.026.1%
🇨🇼Curacao2011-611.24.5%
Group FPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇳🇱Netherlands2110+446.7100.0%
🇯🇵Japan2110+445.6100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden2101+034.295.7%
🇹🇳Tunisia2002-800.20.0%
Group GPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇬Egypt2110+245.7100.0%
🇮🇷Iran2020+023.155.1%
🇧🇪Belgium2020+024.796.8%
🇳🇿New Zealand2011-211.23.2%
Group HPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇸Spain2110+446.2100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay2020+022.635.9%
🇨🇻Cape Verde2020+023.566.4%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia2011-412.334.0%
Group IPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇫🇷France2200+567.9100.0%
🇳🇴Norway2200+466.8100.0%
🇸🇳Senegal2002-302.677.8%
🇮🇶Iraq2002-600.32.9%
Group JPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇦🇷Argentina2200+568.9100.0%
🇦🇹Austria2101+034.494.7%
🇩🇿Algeria2101-234.383.9%
🇯🇴Jordan2002-300.10.0%
Group KPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇴Colombia2200+367.1100.0%
🇵🇹Portugal2110+545.7100.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo2011-112.545.3%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan2002-701.210.4%
Group LPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England2110+246.8100.0%
🇬🇭Ghana2110+144.7100.0%
🇭🇷Croatia2101-135.197.0%
🇵🇦Panama2002-200.10.0%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

TeamGrpRatingLast 32Last 16QuartersSemisFinalChampion
🇪🇸SpainH2111100.0%86.1%65.7%54.3%35.8%22.4%
🇫🇷FranceI2092100.0%89.1%63.7%46.5%31.1%18.4%
🇦🇷ArgentinaJ2067100.0%92.5%75.9%56.1%31.9%18.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandL2053100.0%85.4%63.9%42.2%23.5%12.3%
🇵🇹PortugalK1996100.0%77.6%44.4%23.7%11.4%5.3%
🇩🇪GermanyE1987100.0%84.0%34.9%20.5%9.9%4.4%
🇳🇱NetherlandsF1991100.0%61.2%44.0%19.4%9.4%3.9%
🇧🇷BrazilC1987100.0%62.6%37.5%18.1%8.5%3.5%
🇳🇴NorwayI1950100.0%71.5%37.1%17.1%6.2%2.3%
🇨🇴ColombiaK1926100.0%68.9%33.7%13.3%4.9%1.8%
🇺🇸United StatesD1855100.0%76.9%47.8%14.2%4.7%1.6%
🇧🇪BelgiumG193396.8%74.2%29.0%12.2%4.5%1.4%
🇲🇦MoroccoC1909100.0%45.9%25.4%8.7%3.1%1.0%
🇨🇭SwitzerlandB1887100.0%70.8%28.9%8.1%2.5%0.8%
🇲🇽MexicoA1841100.0%60.6%19.4%7.9%2.4%0.7%
🇭🇷CroatiaL189097.0%38.7%15.0%5.8%2.0%0.6%
🇸🇳SenegalI186777.8%37.2%16.6%4.5%1.4%0.4%
🇨🇦CanadaB1797100.0%64.4%21.9%5.2%1.4%0.3%
🇯🇵JapanF1864100.0%37.1%14.5%4.1%1.3%0.3%
🇺🇾UruguayH189435.9%17.2%7.8%3.2%0.9%0.2%
🇨🇮Ivory CoastE183098.5%27.3%8.8%2.4%0.7%0.2%
🇪🇨EcuadorE188826.1%13.1%6.1%1.7%0.5%0.2%
🇦🇹AustriaJ182594.7%22.7%8.4%2.4%0.5%0.1%
🇸🇪SwedenF181195.7%30.0%9.0%2.1%0.5%<0.1%
🇩🇿AlgeriaJ180483.9%25.5%9.2%1.8%0.3%<0.1%
🇪🇬EgyptG1708100.0%33.3%6.5%0.8%<0.1%<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech RepublicA174521.7%8.0%2.3%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%
🇵🇾ParaguayD174686.7%20.7%2.7%0.6%<0.1%<0.1%
🇿🇦South AfricaA153513.4%1.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇰🇷South KoreaA175795.5%31.1%6.7%0.9%0.2%0.0%
🇶🇦QatarB142312.0%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaB165768.8%9.1%1.9%0.1%<0.1%0.0%
🇭🇹HaitiC15610.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandC176782.3%18.4%3.6%0.8%0.2%0.0%
🇦🇺AustraliaD170991.2%22.0%1.8%0.3%<0.1%0.0%
🇹🇷TurkeyD19100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇼CuracaoE14504.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇹🇳TunisiaF16020.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇷IranG163855.1%13.2%1.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇳🇿New ZealandG15203.2%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇻Cape VerdeH157766.4%2.4%0.4%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaH155534.0%0.8%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇶IraqI15182.9%0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇯🇴JordanJ15350.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇺🇿UzbekistanK166810.4%0.8%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇩DR CongoK171645.3%4.0%1.2%0.3%<0.1%0.0%
🇬🇭GhanaL1697100.0%13.9%2.7%0.3%<0.1%0.0%
🇵🇦PanamaL15950.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.