⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Sunday, June 14 2026 at 6:38 PM

Best bets today $50 unit

KickoffMatchBetModelMarketBlendedPriceStakeTo winExp. profit
Jun 14, 7:00 PM🇨🇮Ivory Coast vs 🇪🇨EcuadorEcuador to win46%39%41%2.60$60$96+$4.51

How we pick these bets: we take every bookmaker's odds, strip out the margin they build in for profit, and average them into the market's honest estimate of each outcome (shown as Market). For match results we blend our model with the market — 35% model, 65% market — because the market already prices in injuries and lineups our model can't see, so a bet only counts when our disagreement is big enough to survive that blend. Over/Under bets use the market alone, since our testing showed the model can't predict goal totals. We only bet when there's at least +2% expected profit at the best price on offer, and we skip likely mistakes rather than real value: odds far out of line with every other book (more than a 20% edge), or heavy favorites priced under 1.40, where you risk a lot to win a little. Stakes use quarter-Kelly — a standard rule that risks more when the edge is bigger — on a $5,000 practice bankroll, capped at $150 a bet; Exp. profit is what a bet makes on average. Expect losing days: an edge is a long-run average, not a promise.

Bet record settled bets only

Record 4–2 · staked $300 · net -49 · ROI -16.2% · 1 pending

Closing-line value: avg +1.9% · beat the close 100% of the time (2 bets). CLV measures whether we got a better price than the market's final line — the best long-run signal that the bets are genuinely sharp.

KickoffMatchBetPriceStakeResultProfitCLV
Jun 14, 1:00 PM🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇼CuracaoOver 4.5 goals2.20$20WIN+24+2.0%
Jun 14, 4:00 PM🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇯🇵JapanOver 2.5 goals2.18$25WIN+30+1.8%
Jun 13, 9:00 PM🇭🇹Haiti vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandScotland to win1.56$60WIN+34–
Jun 13, 6:00 PM🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇲🇦MoroccoDraw3.95$15WIN+44–
Jun 13, 3:00 PM🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭SwitzerlandSwitzerland to win1.24$150LOSS-150–
Jun 11, 10:00 PM🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech RepublicCzech Republic to win3.15$30LOSS-30–

Matches today

Group stageJun 14, 7:00 PM
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
0.6 – 1.0projected goals
🇪🇨Ecuador
Ivory Coast 21% · draw 33% · Ecuador 46%total 1.6 goals
Bookmakers: Ivory Coast 28% · draw 33% · Ecuador 39%
Group stageJun 14, 10:00 PM
🇸🇪Sweden
1.5 – 1.4projected goals
🇹🇳Tunisia
Sweden 40% · draw 24% · Tunisia 35%total 3.0 goals
Bookmakers: Sweden 51% · draw 28% · Tunisia 21%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 15, 12:00 PM
🇪🇸Spain
3.4 – 0.6projected goals
🇨🇻Cape Verde
Spain 88% · draw 8% · Cape Verde 4%total 4.0 goals
Bookmakers: Spain 91% · draw 6% · Cape Verde 3%
Group stageJun 15, 3:00 PM
🇧🇪Belgium
1.6 – 0.9projected goals
🇪🇬Egypt
Belgium 54% · draw 25% · Egypt 21%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: Belgium 61% · draw 23% · Egypt 16%
Group stageJun 15, 6:00 PM
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
0.5 – 1.7projected goals
🇺🇾Uruguay
Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 23% · Uruguay 66%total 2.2 goals
Bookmakers: Saudi Arabia 12% · draw 21% · Uruguay 67%
Group stageJun 15, 9:00 PM
🇮🇷Iran
2.0 – 0.7projected goals
🇳🇿New Zealand
Iran 69% · draw 20% · New Zealand 12%total 2.7 goals
Bookmakers: Iran 51% · draw 28% · New Zealand 21%
Group stageJun 16, 3:00 PM
🇫🇷France
1.7 – 1.3projected goals
🇸🇳Senegal
France 47% · draw 24% · Senegal 29%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: France 67% · draw 21% · Senegal 13%
Group stageJun 16, 6:00 PM
🇮🇶Iraq
0.7 – 2.2projected goals
🇳🇴Norway
Iraq 11% · draw 18% · Norway 71%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Iraq 5% · draw 12% · Norway 83%
Group stageJun 16, 9:00 PM
🇦🇷Argentina
1.8 – 0.7projected goals
🇩🇿Algeria
Argentina 65% · draw 22% · Algeria 13%total 2.5 goals
Bookmakers: Argentina 71% · draw 20% · Algeria 10%
Group stageJun 17, 12:00 AM
🇦🇹Austria
2.4 – 1.0projected goals
🇯🇴Jordan
Austria 67% · draw 18% · Jordan 15%total 3.4 goals
Bookmakers: Austria 73% · draw 17% · Jordan 10%
Group stageJun 17, 1:00 PM
🇵🇹Portugal
1.7 – 0.7projected goals
🇨🇩DR Congo
Portugal 60% · draw 24% · DR Congo 16%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Portugal 76% · draw 16% · DR Congo 8%
Group stageJun 17, 4:00 PM
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England
1.6 – 0.9projected goals
🇭🇷Croatia
England 53% · draw 25% · Croatia 22%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: England 57% · draw 25% · Croatia 18%
Group stageJun 17, 7:00 PM
🇬🇭Ghana
1.5 – 1.3projected goals
🇵🇦Panama
Ghana 42% · draw 25% · Panama 33%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Ghana 45% · draw 28% · Panama 27%
Group stageJun 17, 10:00 PM
🇺🇿Uzbekistan
0.7 – 2.2projected goals
🇨🇴Colombia
Uzbekistan 11% · draw 18% · Colombia 71%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Uzbekistan 10% · draw 19% · Colombia 71%
Group stageJun 18, 12:00 PM
🇨🇿Czech Republic
1.6 – 1.1projected goals
🇿🇦South Africa
Czech Republic 49% · draw 25% · South Africa 26%total 2.7 goals
Bookmakers: Czech Republic 55% · draw 25% · South Africa 20%
Group stageJun 18, 3:00 PM
🇨🇭Switzerland
2.3 – 0.8projected goals
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina
Switzerland 71% · draw 17% · Bosnia and Herzegovina 12%total 3.1 goals

Who wins the World Cup

TeamRatingModelMarket
🇪🇸Spain210023.8%15.8%
🇫🇷France206816.7%16.0%
🇦🇷Argentina204713.0%7.8%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England204111.8%11.0%
🇵🇹Portugal20027.2%10.1%
🇧🇷Brazil19916.1%7.1%
🇩🇪Germany19734.1%5.8%
🇳🇱Netherlands19593.2%4.2%
🇧🇪Belgium19121.9%2.3%
🇳🇴Norway19271.9%2.4%
🇨🇴Colombia19141.4%1.5%
🇪🇨Ecuador19061.2%0.8%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

DateMatchScore
Jun 14, 4:00 PM🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇯🇵Japan2–2
Jun 14, 1:00 PM🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇼Curacao7–1
Jun 14, 12:00 AM🇦🇺Australia vs 🇹🇷Turkey2–0
Jun 13, 9:00 PM🇭🇹Haiti vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland0–1
Jun 13, 6:00 PM🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇲🇦Morocco1–1
Jun 13, 3:00 PM🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭Switzerland1–1
Jun 12, 9:00 PM🇺🇸United States vs 🇵🇾Paraguay4–1
Jun 12, 3:00 PM🇨🇦Canada vs 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina1–1
Jun 11, 10:00 PM🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech Republic2–1
Jun 11, 3:00 PM🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇿🇦South Africa2–0

Groups

Group APWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇲🇽Mexico1100+236.798.9%
🇰🇷South Korea1100+136.195.2%
🇨🇿Czech Republic1001-103.063.6%
🇿🇦South Africa1001-201.315.2%
Group BPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇭Switzerland1010+014.683.7%
🇨🇦Canada1010+014.992.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina1010+013.976.6%
🇶🇦Qatar1010+011.818.9%
Group CPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland1100+134.683.9%
🇧🇷Brazil1010+015.998.0%
🇲🇦Morocco1010+015.292.5%
🇭🇹Haiti1001-100.63.5%
Group DPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇺🇸United States1100+336.397.7%
🇦🇺Australia1100+235.287.4%
🇹🇷Turkey1001-203.256.1%
🇵🇾Paraguay1001-302.434.1%
Group EPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇩🇪Germany1100+636.799.9%
🇪🇨Ecuador0000+005.695.1%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast0000+004.483.5%
🇨🇼Curacao1001-600.41.7%
Group FPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇳🇱Netherlands1010+015.594.5%
🇯🇵Japan1010+014.988.4%
🇸🇪Sweden0000+003.969.1%
🇹🇳Tunisia0000+001.620.6%
Group GPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇪Belgium0000+007.298.3%
🇪🇬Egypt0000+004.274.6%
🇮🇷Iran0000+003.459.1%
🇳🇿New Zealand0000+002.029.0%
Group HPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇸Spain0000+008.099.9%
🇺🇾Uruguay0000+005.594.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde0000+002.024.5%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia0000+001.719.2%
Group IPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇫🇷France0000+006.999.1%
🇳🇴Norway0000+005.091.0%
🇸🇳Senegal0000+004.584.9%
🇮🇶Iraq0000+000.63.5%
Group JPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇦🇷Argentina0000+007.499.1%
🇦🇹Austria0000+004.479.7%
🇩🇿Algeria0000+003.972.7%
🇯🇴Jordan0000+001.212.8%
Group KPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇵🇹Portugal0000+006.796.8%
🇨🇴Colombia0000+005.589.5%
🇨🇩DR Congo0000+002.436.8%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan0000+002.334.6%
Group LPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England0000+007.398.9%
🇭🇷Croatia0000+005.591.8%
🇬🇭Ghana0000+002.233.8%
🇵🇦Panama0000+001.926.5%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

TeamGrpRatingLast 32Last 16QuartersSemisFinalChampion
🇪🇸SpainH210099.9%81.2%62.8%50.9%35.8%23.8%
🇫🇷FranceI206899.1%82.5%60.2%43.8%29.8%16.7%
🇦🇷ArgentinaJ204799.1%68.7%55.7%38.6%21.9%13.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandL204198.9%78.5%55.8%36.4%21.6%11.8%
🇵🇹PortugalK200296.8%72.5%49.1%28.6%14.3%7.2%
🇧🇷BrazilC199198.0%65.5%40.8%22.8%13.0%6.1%
🇩🇪GermanyE197399.9%68.6%36.0%20.7%9.8%4.1%
🇳🇱NetherlandsF195994.5%56.5%36.8%17.7%8.0%3.2%
🇧🇪BelgiumG191298.3%66.2%37.2%12.6%5.0%1.9%
🇳🇴NorwayI192791.0%53.8%28.1%13.3%5.4%1.9%
🇨🇴ColombiaK191489.5%50.9%23.8%10.9%3.8%1.4%
🇪🇨EcuadorE190695.1%51.2%22.8%10.0%3.9%1.2%
🇭🇷CroatiaL189691.8%49.3%19.4%9.0%3.3%1.1%
🇺🇸United StatesD183397.7%63.6%29.7%9.6%3.1%1.0%
🇺🇾UruguayH188194.0%35.1%20.1%9.0%2.4%0.9%
🇸🇳SenegalI188584.9%44.9%21.5%8.2%2.8%0.8%
🇲🇽MexicoA183298.9%57.6%22.9%8.6%3.2%0.8%
🇲🇦MoroccoC187892.5%44.0%21.1%7.8%2.4%0.7%
🇨🇭SwitzerlandB186283.7%52.1%20.6%6.8%2.0%0.5%
🇹🇷TurkeyD187956.1%29.4%12.6%4.9%1.5%0.4%
🇯🇵JapanF187088.4%39.7%18.0%6.1%2.0%0.4%
🇨🇦CanadaB177892.0%50.4%17.9%5.0%1.2%0.4%
🇦🇹AustriaJ182379.7%23.1%9.9%3.3%0.8%0.2%
🇨🇮Ivory CoastE180983.5%31.8%10.3%2.7%0.5%0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandC177983.9%27.3%8.6%1.9%0.6%<0.1%
🇸🇪SwedenF179969.1%23.7%7.8%2.1%0.4%<0.1%
🇰🇷South KoreaA176195.2%40.1%10.4%2.1%0.4%<0.1%
🇩🇿AlgeriaJ179172.7%18.8%6.9%1.6%0.3%<0.1%
🇦🇺AustraliaD174587.4%40.1%9.4%1.8%0.2%<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech RepublicA174563.6%21.3%5.6%0.9%0.1%<0.1%
🇿🇦South AfricaA154915.2%1.9%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
🇪🇬EgyptG170374.6%24.9%4.3%0.6%<0.1%<0.1%
🇶🇦QatarB145418.9%1.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaB168076.6%21.5%3.9%0.4%<0.1%0.0%
🇭🇹HaitiC15713.5%0.4%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇵🇾ParaguayD176134.1%12.9%3.0%0.7%0.1%0.0%
🇨🇼CuracaoE14621.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇹🇳TunisiaF163320.6%3.1%0.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇷IranG165059.1%14.4%1.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇳🇿New ZealandG155029.0%3.9%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇻Cape VerdeH159024.5%2.3%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaH156919.2%1.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇶IraqI15383.5%0.4%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇯🇴JordanJ157112.8%1.2%0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇺🇿UzbekistanK169034.6%5.8%1.0%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇨🇩DR CongoK169636.8%6.6%1.3%0.1%<0.1%0.0%
🇬🇭GhanaL166033.8%5.4%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
🇵🇦PanamaL163426.5%3.8%0.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.