⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Saturday, June 20 2026 at 2:31 PM

Best Bets Today model picks & placed trades

Kickoff	Match	Bet	Our prob	Kalshi	Net edge	Stake	Placed
Jun 20, 1:00 PM	🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Draw	10%	1¢	+4.8%	$12	–
Jun 21, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both teams to score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19	–
Jun 21, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both teams to score	60%	47¢	+7.5%	$33	–
Jun 22, 11:00 PM	🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both teams to score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$37	–
Jun 23, 7:00 PM	🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Both teams to score	56%	45¢	+4.8%	$25	–

We simulate each match thousands of times and blend our model (sharpened by xG) with the betting market, then bet only outcomes Kalshi is underpricing after its ~7% fee (Net edge). Stake is quarter-Kelly off the live balance, capped at $75. Placed shows what the auto-trader has actually put on Kalshi — so what you see here is what it bets.

Bet Record placed trades, graded at 90 min

Record 2–6 · settled stake $273.86 · net -14.86 · ROI -5.4%

Match	Bet	Contracts	Cost	Result	P&L
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	122	$15.86	OPEN	–
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	168	$28.56	OPEN	–
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	149	$14.64	OPEN	–
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	86	$67.08	OPEN	–
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	128	$58.88	LOSS	-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	181	$15.46	LOSS	-15.46
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	10	$8.00	WIN	+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	2	$0.10	LOSS	-0.10
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	249	$74.40	WIN	+174.60
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	102	$25.04	LOSS	-25.04
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	417	$74.95	LOSS	-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	168	$17.03	LOSS	-17.03

P&L Summary real money, net of costs

Realized trading P&L -14.86 · record 4–32 · 8 open ($126.14 at risk)

Operating cost	Per month	Accrued
Digital Ocean droplet	$6	$0.40
TheStatsAPI (xG + live data)	$50	$0.00
Odds API (free tier)	$0	$0.00
Total	$56/mo	$0.40

Net after costs: realized -14.86 − costs $0.40 accrued = -15.26. Open positions aren't counted until they settle.

Model scorecard 6 graded

Accuracy 67% ±38% · always-favorite baseline 50% · Brier 0.532 (base-rate 0.611) · skill +13.0% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 6 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~44 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 20, 1:00 PM

🇳🇱Netherlands

2.7 – 1.4projected goals

🇸🇪Sweden

Netherlands 65% · draw 17% · Sweden 18%total 4.1 goals

Bookmakers: Netherlands 92% · draw 6% · Sweden 2%

Group stageJun 20, 4:00 PM

🇩🇪Germany

1.6 – 1.0projected goals

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

Germany 53% · draw 25% · Ivory Coast 22%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Germany 67% · draw 19% · Ivory Coast 14%

Group stageJun 20, 8:00 PM

🇪🇨Ecuador

2.9 – 0.3projected goals

🇨🇼Curacao

Ecuador 89% · draw 9% · Curacao 2%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Ecuador 88% · draw 9% · Curacao 4%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 12, 3:00 PM

🇨🇦Canada

1.7 – 0.8projected goals

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina

Canada 60% · draw 24% · Bosnia and Herzegovina 17%total 2.5 goals

Group stageJun 21, 12:00 AM

🇹🇳Tunisia

0.7 – 1.7projected goals

🇯🇵Japan

Tunisia 14% · draw 24% · Japan 62%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Tunisia 13% · draw 23% · Japan 64%

Group stageJun 21, 12:00 PM

🇪🇸Spain

3.0 – 0.6projected goals

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

Spain 86% · draw 10% · Saudi Arabia 4%total 3.6 goals

Bookmakers: Spain 90% · draw 7% · Saudi Arabia 3%

Group stageJun 21, 3:00 PM

🇧🇪Belgium

2.0 – 1.2projected goals

🇮🇷Iran

Belgium 55% · draw 22% · Iran 24%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Belgium 69% · draw 20% · Iran 12%

Group stageJun 21, 6:00 PM

🇺🇾Uruguay

1.8 – 0.6projected goals

🇨🇻Cape Verde

Uruguay 68% · draw 22% · Cape Verde 11%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Uruguay 68% · draw 22% · Cape Verde 11%

Group stageJun 21, 9:00 PM

🇳🇿New Zealand

0.6 – 1.6projected goals

🇪🇬Egypt

New Zealand 15% · draw 25% · Egypt 60%total 2.2 goals

Bookmakers: New Zealand 16% · draw 23% · Egypt 61%

Group stageJun 22, 1:00 PM

🇦🇷Argentina

1.7 – 0.5projected goals

🇦🇹Austria

Argentina 67% · draw 23% · Austria 10%total 2.2 goals

Bookmakers: Argentina 62% · draw 24% · Austria 15%

Group stageJun 22, 5:00 PM

🇫🇷France

2.5 – 0.6projected goals

🇮🇶Iraq

France 80% · draw 14% · Iraq 7%total 3.1 goals

Bookmakers: France 91% · draw 6% · Iraq 2%

Group stageJun 22, 8:00 PM

🇳🇴Norway

1.6 – 1.4projected goals

🇸🇳Senegal

Norway 41% · draw 24% · Senegal 35%total 3.0 goals

Bookmakers: Norway 43% · draw 27% · Senegal 30%

Group stageJun 22, 11:00 PM

🇯🇴Jordan

1.1 – 2.7projected goals

🇩🇿Algeria

Jordan 12% · draw 15% · Algeria 72%total 3.8 goals

Bookmakers: Jordan 15% · draw 22% · Algeria 62%

Group stageJun 23, 1:00 PM

🇵🇹Portugal

2.1 – 0.7projected goals

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

Portugal 70% · draw 19% · Uzbekistan 11%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Portugal 82% · draw 12% · Uzbekistan 5%

Group stageJun 23, 4:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

2.2 – 0.6projected goals

🇬🇭Ghana

England 76% · draw 17% · Ghana 8%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: England 81% · draw 13% · Ghana 6%

Group stageJun 23, 7:00 PM

🇵🇦Panama

0.9 – 2.5projected goals

🇭🇷Croatia

Panama 12% · draw 16% · Croatia 72%total 3.5 goals

Bookmakers: Panama 13% · draw 23% · Croatia 63%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2106	23.6%	13.7%
🇫🇷France	2084	19.2%	18.7%
🇦🇷Argentina	2056	15.1%	9.5%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2062	14.6%	12.8%
🇵🇹Portugal	1980	3.9%	7.2%
🇩🇪Germany	1976	3.8%	5.6%
🇧🇷Brazil	1984	3.8%	6.4%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1978	3.4%	4.4%
🇳🇴Norway	1937	1.9%	2.4%
🇨🇴Colombia	1920	1.8%	1.6%
🇧🇪Belgium	1921	1.6%	1.8%
🇺🇸United States	1854	1.5%	2.6%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 19, 11:00 PM	🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	0–1
Jun 19, 8:30 PM	🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	3–0
Jun 19, 6:00 PM	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	0–1
Jun 19, 3:00 PM	🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	2–0
Jun 18, 9:00 PM	🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇰🇷South Korea	1–0
Jun 18, 6:00 PM	🇨🇦Canada vs 🇶🇦Qatar	6–0
Jun 18, 3:00 PM	🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	4–1
Jun 18, 12:00 PM	🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇿🇦South Africa	1–1
Jun 17, 10:00 PM	🇺🇿Uzbekistan vs 🇨🇴Colombia	1–3
Jun 17, 7:00 PM	🇬🇭Ghana vs 🇵🇦Panama	1–0
Jun 17, 4:00 PM	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇭🇷Croatia	4–2
Jun 17, 1:00 PM	🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	1–1

Groups

Group A	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	2	2	0	0	+3	6	7.9	100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.2	94.8%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	2	0	1	1	-1	1	1.8	20.4%
🇿🇦South Africa	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.6	13.1%

Group B	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇭Switzerland	2	1	1	0	+3	4	5.6	100.0%
🇨🇦Canada	1	1	0	0	+6	3	6.2	99.1%
🇶🇦Qatar	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.5	12.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	1	0	0	1	-3	0	3.0	55.4%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	2	1	1	0	+3	4	6.2	100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	2	1	1	0	+1	4	6.6	100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	2	1	0	1	+0	3	3.6	76.3%
🇭🇹Haiti	2	0	0	2	-4	0	0.3	0.0%

Group D	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	2	2	0	+5	6	7.4	100.0%
🇦🇺Australia	2	1	1	+0	3	4.2	88.6%
🇵🇾Paraguay	2	1	1	-2	3	4.5	81.9%
🇹🇷Turkey	2	0	2	-3	0	1.4	0.0%

Group E	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	1	1	0	+6	3	6.7	99.9%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	1	1	0	+1	3	6.5	98.3%
🇪🇨Ecuador	1	0	1	-1	0	3.7	87.5%
🇨🇼Curacao	1	0	1	-6	0	0.4	1.6%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇸🇪Sweden	1	1	0	0	+4	3	5.0	98.1%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.6	96.2%
🇯🇵Japan	1	0	1	0	+0	1	4.8	88.2%
🇹🇳Tunisia	1	0	0	1	-4	0	0.8	4.8%

Group G	P	D	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇮🇷Iran	1	1	+0	1	2.7	42.7%
🇳🇿New Zealand	1	1	+0	1	2.0	23.7%
🇧🇪Belgium	1	1	+0	1	6.0	97.8%
🇪🇬Egypt	1	1	+0	1	4.5	82.3%

Group H	P	D	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇾Uruguay	1	1	+0	1	4.1	83.3%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	1	1	+0	1	2.3	34.1%
🇪🇸Spain	1	1	+0	1	6.1	99.1%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	1	1	+0	1	2.9	49.1%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇴Norway	1	1	0	+3	3	5.4	98.5%
🇫🇷France	1	1	0	+2	3	7.8	99.9%
🇸🇳Senegal	1	0	1	-2	0	3.7	81.1%
🇮🇶Iraq	1	0	1	-3	0	0.3	1.6%

Group J	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	1	1	0	+3	3	8.1	99.9%
🇦🇹Austria	1	1	0	+2	3	5.2	94.5%
🇯🇴Jordan	1	0	1	-2	0	0.7	5.3%
🇩🇿Algeria	1	0	1	-3	0	3.4	63.7%

Group K	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇴Colombia	1	1	0	0	+2	3	6.3	98.8%
🇵🇹Portugal	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.1	91.6%
🇨🇩DR Congo	1	0	1	0	+0	1	3.2	56.4%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	1	0	0	1	-2	0	1.6	23.1%

Group L	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	1	1	0	+2	3	8.4	99.9%
🇬🇭Ghana	1	1	0	+1	3	3.9	64.6%
🇵🇦Panama	1	0	1	-1	0	0.6	5.6%
🇭🇷Croatia	1	0	1	-2	0	4.5	87.3%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2106	99.1%	80.3%	65.3%	52.6%	37.1%	23.6%
🇫🇷France	I	2084	99.9%	87.9%	66.6%	49.8%	32.3%	19.2%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2056	99.9%	72.1%	64.0%	47.0%	26.9%	15.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2062	99.9%	83.4%	63.5%	43.2%	26.4%	14.6%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1980	91.6%	64.8%	36.6%	19.9%	9.3%	3.9%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1976	99.9%	71.4%	33.3%	18.9%	9.1%	3.8%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	1984	100.0%	63.5%	38.0%	17.9%	8.6%	3.8%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1978	96.2%	56.0%	36.3%	17.1%	7.4%	3.4%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1937	98.5%	61.2%	31.6%	14.3%	5.3%	1.9%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1920	98.8%	62.7%	32.4%	13.8%	5.1%	1.8%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1921	97.8%	68.9%	34.9%	13.0%	4.9%	1.6%
🇺🇸United States	D	1854	100.0%	68.8%	38.4%	12.2%	4.7%	1.5%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1907	100.0%	51.2%	28.7%	9.8%	3.1%	0.9%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1886	100.0%	66.1%	29.1%	9.4%	3.1%	0.8%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1886	83.3%	29.8%	18.7%	8.8%	2.6%	0.8%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1841	100.0%	62.3%	18.6%	7.6%	2.6%	0.7%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1883	87.5%	41.8%	18.2%	5.7%	1.9%	0.5%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1876	81.1%	39.0%	17.3%	5.4%	1.7%	0.5%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1881	87.3%	40.9%	13.3%	5.6%	1.7%	0.5%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1792	99.1%	56.9%	21.4%	5.5%	1.4%	0.3%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1855	88.2%	34.3%	15.1%	4.0%	1.2%	0.3%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1835	98.3%	41.0%	12.0%	3.7%	0.8%	0.2%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1820	98.1%	33.0%	12.1%	3.1%	0.7%	0.1%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1832	94.5%	26.1%	11.8%	4.0%	0.8%	0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1786	63.7%	16.1%	5.4%	1.3%	0.2%	<0.1%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1758	94.8%	33.8%	8.8%	1.2%	0.2%	<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1767	76.3%	18.7%	4.1%	0.9%	0.2%	<0.1%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1711	88.6%	35.8%	4.3%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1745	20.4%	6.3%	1.7%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1694	82.3%	28.3%	4.2%	0.6%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1538	13.1%	1.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1427	12.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1663	55.4%	11.1%	1.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1564	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1747	81.9%	30.8%	5.2%	1.5%	0.1%	0.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1908	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1457	1.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1612	4.8%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1652	42.7%	13.9%	1.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1539	23.7%	4.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1586	49.1%	4.1%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1561	34.1%	2.5%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1525	1.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1557	5.3%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1683	23.1%	3.3%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1721	56.4%	12.0%	2.2%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1683	64.6%	12.1%	2.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1606	5.6%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.