⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Monday, June 15 2026 at 9:20 AM

Best bets today $50 unit

Kickoff	Match	Bet	Model	Market	Blended	Price	Stake	To win	Exp. profit
Jun 15, 9:00 PM	🇮🇷Iran vs 🇳🇿New Zealand	Iran to win	69%	53%	58%	1.88	$140	$123	+$13.85
Jun 15, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇪🇬Egypt	Egypt to win	21%	16%	17%	6.40	$25	$135	+$2.85
Jun 15, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	8%	5%	6%	18.00	$10	$170	+$1.27

How we pick these bets: we take every bookmaker's odds, strip out the margin they build in for profit, and average them into the market's honest estimate of each outcome (shown as Market). For match results we blend our model with the market — 35% model, 65% market — because the market already prices in injuries and lineups our model can't see, so a bet only counts when our disagreement is big enough to survive that blend. Over/Under bets use the market alone, since our testing showed the model can't predict goal totals. We only bet when there's at least +2% expected profit at the best price on offer, and we skip likely mistakes rather than real value: odds far out of line with every other book (more than a 20% edge), or heavy favorites priced under 1.40, where you risk a lot to win a little. Stakes use quarter-Kelly — a standard rule that risks more when the edge is bigger — on a $5,000 practice bankroll, capped at $150 a bet; Exp. profit is what a bet makes on average. Expect losing days: an edge is a long-run average, not a promise.

Bet record settled bets only

Record 4–3 · staked $360 · net -109 · ROI -30.2% · 2 pending

Closing-line value: avg +2.7% · beat the close 100% of the time (3 bets). CLV measures whether we got a better price than the market's final line — the best long-run signal that the bets are genuinely sharp.

Kickoff	Match	Bet	Price	Stake	Result	Profit	CLV
Jun 14, 7:00 PM	🇨🇮Ivory Coast vs 🇪🇨Ecuador	Ecuador to win	2.68	$60	LOSS	-60	+4.3%
Jun 14, 1:00 PM	🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 4.5 goals	2.20	$20	WIN	+24	+2.0%
Jun 14, 4:00 PM	🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	2.18	$25	WIN	+30	+1.8%
Jun 13, 9:00 PM	🇭🇹Haiti vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	Scotland to win	1.56	$60	WIN	+34	–
Jun 13, 6:00 PM	🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇲🇦Morocco	Draw	3.95	$15	WIN	+44	–
Jun 13, 3:00 PM	🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭Switzerland	Switzerland to win	1.24	$150	LOSS	-150	–
Jun 11, 10:00 PM	🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech Republic	Czech Republic to win	3.15	$30	LOSS	-30	–

Matches today

Group stageJun 15, 12:00 PM

🇪🇸Spain

3.4 – 0.6projected goals

🇨🇻Cape Verde

Spain 88% · draw 8% · Cape Verde 4%total 4.0 goals

Bookmakers: Spain 93% · draw 5% · Cape Verde 2%

Group stageJun 15, 3:00 PM

🇧🇪Belgium

1.7 – 0.9projected goals

🇪🇬Egypt

Belgium 55% · draw 24% · Egypt 21%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Belgium 61% · draw 23% · Egypt 16%

Group stageJun 15, 6:00 PM

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

0.5 – 1.7projected goals

🇺🇾Uruguay

Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 23% · Uruguay 66%total 2.2 goals

Bookmakers: Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 22% · Uruguay 67%

Group stageJun 15, 9:00 PM

🇮🇷Iran

2.0 – 0.7projected goals

🇳🇿New Zealand

Iran 69% · draw 20% · New Zealand 12%total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Iran 53% · draw 28% · New Zealand 20%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 16, 3:00 PM

🇫🇷France

1.7 – 1.2projected goals

🇸🇳Senegal

France 48% · draw 24% · Senegal 28%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: France 67% · draw 21% · Senegal 12%

Group stageJun 16, 6:00 PM

🇮🇶Iraq

0.7 – 2.2projected goals

🇳🇴Norway

Iraq 11% · draw 18% · Norway 72%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Iraq 5% · draw 12% · Norway 83%

Group stageJun 16, 9:00 PM

🇦🇷Argentina

1.8 – 0.7projected goals

🇩🇿Algeria

Argentina 65% · draw 22% · Algeria 13%total 2.5 goals

Bookmakers: Argentina 70% · draw 20% · Algeria 10%

Group stageJun 17, 12:00 AM

🇦🇹Austria

2.4 – 1.0projected goals

🇯🇴Jordan

Austria 68% · draw 18% · Jordan 15%total 3.4 goals

Bookmakers: Austria 74% · draw 17% · Jordan 10%

Group stageJun 17, 1:00 PM

🇵🇹Portugal

1.7 – 0.7projected goals

🇨🇩DR Congo

Portugal 61% · draw 24% · DR Congo 15%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Portugal 77% · draw 16% · DR Congo 8%

Group stageJun 17, 4:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

1.6 – 0.9projected goals

🇭🇷Croatia

England 53% · draw 25% · Croatia 22%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: England 57% · draw 25% · Croatia 18%

Group stageJun 17, 7:00 PM

🇬🇭Ghana

1.5 – 1.3projected goals

🇵🇦Panama

Ghana 43% · draw 25% · Panama 32%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Ghana 45% · draw 28% · Panama 27%

Group stageJun 17, 10:00 PM

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

0.7 – 2.2projected goals

🇨🇴Colombia

Uzbekistan 11% · draw 18% · Colombia 71%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Uzbekistan 10% · draw 19% · Colombia 71%

Group stageJun 18, 12:00 PM

🇨🇿Czech Republic

1.7 – 1.1projected goals

🇿🇦South Africa

Czech Republic 50% · draw 24% · South Africa 25%total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Czech Republic 55% · draw 25% · South Africa 20%

Group stageJun 18, 3:00 PM

🇨🇭Switzerland

2.3 – 0.8projected goals

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina

Switzerland 71% · draw 17% · Bosnia and Herzegovina 12%total 3.1 goals

Group stageJun 18, 6:00 PM

🇨🇦Canada

2.5 – 0.8projected goals

🇶🇦Qatar

Canada 75% · draw 15% · Qatar 9%total 3.3 goals

Bookmakers: Canada 77% · draw 16% · Qatar 7%

Group stageJun 18, 9:00 PM

🇲🇽Mexico

1.6 – 1.2projected goals

🇰🇷South Korea

Mexico 47% · draw 25% · South Korea 28%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Mexico 49% · draw 28% · South Korea 23%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2099	23.8%	15.8%
🇫🇷France	2068	18.3%	16.2%
🇦🇷Argentina	2047	12.4%	7.8%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2041	11.8%	11.0%
🇵🇹Portugal	2002	7.4%	10.1%
🇧🇷Brazil	1991	5.7%	6.9%
🇩🇪Germany	1972	4.0%	5.8%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1959	3.1%	4.2%
🇧🇪Belgium	1911	1.9%	2.3%
🇳🇴Norway	1927	1.9%	2.4%
🇨🇴Colombia	1913	1.6%	1.5%
🇭🇷Croatia	1896	1.0%	0.7%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 14, 10:00 PM	🇸🇪Sweden vs 🇹🇳Tunisia	5–1
Jun 14, 7:00 PM	🇨🇮Ivory Coast vs 🇪🇨Ecuador	1–0
Jun 14, 4:00 PM	🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇯🇵Japan	2–2
Jun 14, 1:00 PM	🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇼Curacao	7–1
Jun 14, 12:00 AM	🇦🇺Australia vs 🇹🇷Turkey	2–0
Jun 13, 9:00 PM	🇭🇹Haiti vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	0–1
Jun 13, 6:00 PM	🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇲🇦Morocco	1–1
Jun 13, 3:00 PM	🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭Switzerland	1–1
Jun 12, 9:00 PM	🇺🇸United States vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	4–1
Jun 12, 3:00 PM	🇨🇦Canada vs 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	1–1
Jun 11, 10:00 PM	🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech Republic	2–1
Jun 11, 3:00 PM	🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇿🇦South Africa	2–0

Groups

Group A	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	1	1	0	+2	3	6.7	99.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	1	1	0	+1	3	6.1	95.1%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	1	0	1	-1	0	3.0	61.0%
🇿🇦South Africa	1	0	1	-2	0	1.3	15.3%

Group B	P	D	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇭Switzerland	1	1	+0	1	4.6	82.8%
🇨🇦Canada	1	1	+0	1	4.9	92.4%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	1	1	+0	1	3.9	76.6%
🇶🇦Qatar	1	1	+0	1	1.8	18.4%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	1	1	0	0	+1	3	4.6	82.7%
🇧🇷Brazil	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.9	97.6%
🇲🇦Morocco	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.2	92.5%
🇭🇹Haiti	1	0	0	1	-1	0	0.6	3.4%

Group D	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	1	1	0	+3	3	6.3	97.8%
🇦🇺Australia	1	1	0	+2	3	5.1	86.7%
🇹🇷Turkey	1	0	1	-2	0	3.2	55.8%
🇵🇾Paraguay	1	0	1	-3	0	2.4	33.1%

Group E	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	1	1	0	+6	3	6.7	99.8%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	1	1	0	+1	3	6.5	97.9%
🇪🇨Ecuador	1	0	1	-1	0	3.7	86.2%
🇨🇼Curacao	1	0	1	-6	0	0.4	1.4%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇸🇪Sweden	1	1	0	0	+4	3	5.0	97.7%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.5	95.2%
🇯🇵Japan	1	0	1	0	+0	1	4.9	88.9%
🇹🇳Tunisia	1	0	0	1	-4	0	0.8	4.5%

Group G	GD	xPts	Advance
🇧🇪Belgium	+0	7.1	97.9%
🇪🇬Egypt	+0	4.2	73.0%
🇮🇷Iran	+0	3.4	60.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	+0	2.0	28.4%

Group H	GD	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	+0	8.0	99.9%
🇺🇾Uruguay	+0	5.5	94.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	+0	2.0	23.3%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	+0	1.7	17.3%

Group I	GD	xPts	Advance
🇫🇷France	+0	6.9	99.1%
🇳🇴Norway	+0	5.1	90.8%
🇸🇳Senegal	+0	4.5	84.2%
🇮🇶Iraq	+0	0.6	3.2%

Group J	GD	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	+0	7.4	98.9%
🇦🇹Austria	+0	4.4	79.2%
🇩🇿Algeria	+0	3.9	72.2%
🇯🇴Jordan	+0	1.2	11.7%

Group K	GD	xPts	Advance
🇵🇹Portugal	+0	6.7	96.5%
🇨🇴Colombia	+0	5.4	89.9%
🇨🇩DR Congo	+0	2.4	36.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	+0	2.3	34.2%

Group L	GD	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	+0	7.3	98.9%
🇭🇷Croatia	+0	5.5	91.1%
🇬🇭Ghana	+0	2.3	32.2%
🇵🇦Panama	+0	1.9	25.9%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2099	99.9%	81.7%	63.6%	51.3%	35.9%	23.8%
🇫🇷France	I	2068	99.1%	82.4%	61.2%	44.9%	30.8%	18.3%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2047	98.9%	67.7%	55.0%	38.0%	21.4%	12.4%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2041	98.9%	77.3%	54.5%	36.0%	21.9%	11.8%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	2002	96.5%	71.3%	47.0%	27.5%	14.4%	7.4%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	1991	97.6%	64.6%	41.7%	23.0%	12.5%	5.7%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1972	99.8%	69.0%	35.6%	21.3%	10.2%	4.0%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1959	95.2%	56.0%	35.5%	17.3%	8.2%	3.1%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1911	97.9%	66.3%	37.1%	12.6%	4.7%	1.9%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1927	90.8%	56.3%	29.4%	13.9%	5.4%	1.9%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1913	89.9%	50.9%	23.8%	11.1%	4.2%	1.6%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1896	91.1%	48.4%	19.3%	8.8%	3.3%	1.0%
🇺🇸United States	D	1833	97.8%	63.4%	29.1%	9.4%	2.8%	0.9%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1832	99.0%	56.7%	22.6%	8.2%	2.9%	0.8%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1881	94.0%	35.5%	19.8%	8.4%	2.4%	0.7%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1878	92.5%	43.2%	21.3%	8.1%	2.6%	0.7%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1885	84.2%	45.7%	19.9%	7.5%	2.5%	0.7%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1881	86.2%	42.0%	18.7%	6.7%	2.5%	0.7%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1869	88.9%	40.4%	18.9%	6.6%	2.0%	0.5%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1879	55.8%	30.0%	12.6%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1862	82.8%	50.3%	21.1%	6.6%	1.7%	0.4%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1833	97.9%	40.1%	13.0%	4.2%	1.1%	0.3%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1778	92.4%	50.8%	18.3%	5.5%	1.4%	0.3%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1821	97.7%	37.0%	14.1%	4.0%	0.9%	0.2%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1823	79.2%	22.5%	9.8%	3.0%	0.8%	0.1%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1761	95.1%	39.5%	10.2%	2.0%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1791	72.2%	18.5%	7.0%	1.8%	0.3%	<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1779	82.7%	25.7%	7.8%	2.1%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1745	61.0%	20.3%	5.7%	1.0%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1746	86.7%	39.5%	8.8%	1.5%	0.2%	<0.1%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1703	73.0%	22.9%	4.1%	0.6%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1680	76.6%	22.1%	3.8%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1761	33.1%	13.3%	3.1%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1690	34.2%	6.1%	1.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1549	15.3%	1.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1454	18.4%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1571	3.4%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1462	1.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1612	4.5%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1650	60.0%	14.8%	1.9%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1550	28.4%	3.5%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1590	23.3%	2.3%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1569	17.3%	1.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1538	3.2%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1572	11.7%	1.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1696	36.0%	6.6%	1.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1660	32.2%	5.1%	0.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1634	25.9%	3.6%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.