⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Wednesday, June 17 2026 at 6:27 PM

Best bets today $50 unit

Kickoff	Match	Bet	Model	Market	Blended	Price	Stake	To win	Exp. profit
Jun 17, 7:00 PM	🇬🇭Ghana vs 🇵🇦Panama	Panama to win	33%	29%	30%	3.45	$25	$61	+$1.19
Jun 17, 10:00 PM	🇺🇿Uzbekistan vs 🇨🇴Colombia	Uzbekistan to win	11%	9%	10%	10.50	$5	$48	+$0.25

How we pick these bets: we take every bookmaker's odds, strip out the margin they build in for profit, and average them into the market's honest estimate of each outcome (shown as Market). For match results we blend our model with the market — 35% model, 65% market — because the market already prices in injuries and lineups our model can't see, so a bet only counts when our disagreement is big enough to survive that blend. Over/Under bets use the market alone, since our testing showed the model can't predict goal totals. We only bet when there's at least +2% expected profit at the best price on offer, and we skip likely mistakes rather than real value: odds far out of line with every other book (more than a 20% edge), or heavy favorites priced under 1.40, where you risk a lot to win a little. Stakes use quarter-Kelly — a standard rule that risks more when the edge is bigger — on a $5,000 practice bankroll, capped at $150 a bet; Exp. profit is what a bet makes on average. Expect losing days: an edge is a long-run average, not a promise.

Bet record settled bets only

Record 6–7 · staked $475 · net +136 · ROI +28.7% · 2 pending

Closing-line value: avg -0.2% · beat the close 67% of the time (9 bets). CLV measures whether we got a better price than the market's final line — the best long-run signal that the bets are genuinely sharp.

Kickoff	Match	Bet	Price	Stake	Result	Profit	CLV
Jun 17, 4:00 PM	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Croatia to win	5.70	$25	LOSS	-25	+0.7%
Jun 17, 1:00 PM	🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Draw	6.00	$30	WIN	+150	-5.0%
Jun 16, 9:00 PM	🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Algeria to win	9.00	$10	LOSS	-10	+0.4%
Jun 16, 3:00 PM	🇫🇷France vs 🇸🇳Senegal	Draw	4.80	$15	LOSS	-15	-1.6%
Jun 15, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	18.00	$10	WIN	+170	+7.8%
Jun 15, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇪🇬Egypt	Egypt to win	6.40	$25	LOSS	-25	-12.1%
Jun 14, 7:00 PM	🇨🇮Ivory Coast vs 🇪🇨Ecuador	Ecuador to win	2.68	$60	LOSS	-60	+4.3%
Jun 14, 1:00 PM	🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 4.5 goals	2.20	$20	WIN	+24	+2.0%
Jun 14, 4:00 PM	🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	2.18	$25	WIN	+30	+1.8%
Jun 13, 9:00 PM	🇭🇹Haiti vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	Scotland to win	1.56	$60	WIN	+34	–
Jun 13, 6:00 PM	🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇲🇦Morocco	Draw	3.95	$15	WIN	+44	–
Jun 13, 3:00 PM	🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭Switzerland	Switzerland to win	1.24	$150	LOSS	-150	–
Jun 11, 10:00 PM	🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech Republic	Czech Republic to win	3.15	$30	LOSS	-30	–

Kalshi edge 16 matches priced · 6 post-fee edges

Our model's probability vs Kalshi's live price for each outcome. Breakeven is the probability an outcome needs to clear Kalshi's ~7% fee + spread; net edge = our probability − breakeven, so only positive values are worth a trade. Read-only — no orders are placed. Treat big edges skeptically: our model is least reliable on longshots, which is where most of them appear.

Kickoff	Match	Outcome	Our	Kalshi	Breakeven	Net edge
Jun 17, 7:00 PM	🇬🇭Ghana vs 🇵🇦Panama	🇬🇭Ghana	43%	40–41¢	47%	-4.4%
		Draw	25%	30–31¢	37%	-12.2%
		🇵🇦Panama	33%	29–30¢	36%	-3.5%
Jun 17, 10:00 PM	🇺🇿Uzbekistan vs 🇨🇴Colombia	🇺🇿Uzbekistan	11%	9–10¢	14%	-3.1%
		Draw	18%	19–20¢	26%	-7.7%
		🇨🇴Colombia	71%	71–72¢	78%	-7.2%
Jun 18, 12:00 PM	🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇿🇦South Africa	🇨🇿Czech Republic	51%	54–55¢	61%	-10.1%
		Draw	24%	25–26¢	32%	-7.7%
		🇿🇦South Africa	25%	19–20¢	26%	-1.2%
Jun 18, 3:00 PM	🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	🇨🇭Switzerland	71%	62–63¢	69%	+1.7%
		Draw	18%	22–23¢	29%	-11.4%
		🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	12%	14–15¢	19%	-7.3%
Jun 18, 6:00 PM	🇨🇦Canada vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇨🇦Canada	76%	75–76¢	82%	-6.3%
		Draw	15%	16–17¢	21%	-5.8%
		🇶🇦Qatar	9%	8–9¢	13%	-3.9%
Jun 18, 9:00 PM	🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇰🇷South Korea	🇲🇽Mexico	47%	47–48¢	54%	-6.8%
		Draw	25%	28–29¢	35%	-10.4%
		🇰🇷South Korea	28%	23–24¢	30%	-1.8%
Jun 19, 3:00 PM	🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇺🇸United States	23%	61–62¢	68%	-44.9%
		Draw	23%	21–22¢	28%	-4.6%
		🇦🇺Australia	53%	18–19¢	25%	+28.5%
Jun 19, 6:00 PM	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	18%	18–19¢	25%	-7.0%
		Draw	27%	25–26¢	32%	-5.2%
		🇲🇦Morocco	55%	56–57¢	63%	-7.8%
Jun 19, 8:30 PM	🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	🇧🇷Brazil	93%	88–89¢	93%	-0.4%
		Draw	4%	7–8¢	12%	-7.6%
		🇭🇹Haiti	3%	4–5¢	9%	-6.0%
Jun 19, 11:00 PM	🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	38%	48–49¢	55%	-17.2%
		Draw	25%	28–29¢	35%	-10.1%
		🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	24–25¢	31%	+6.3%
Jun 20, 1:00 PM	🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇳🇱Netherlands	64%	56–57¢	63%	+0.9%
		Draw	17%	23–24¢	30%	-13.3%
		🇸🇪Sweden	19%	19–20¢	26%	-6.6%
Jun 20, 4:00 PM	🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇩🇪Germany	51%	64–65¢	71%	-20.3%
		Draw	24%	20–21¢	27%	-3.1%
		🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	16–17¢	21%	+4.4%
Jun 20, 8:00 PM	🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	🇪🇨Ecuador	89%	88–89¢	93%	-4.4%
		Draw	9%	7–8¢	12%	-3.0%
		🇨🇼Curacao	2%	3–5¢	9%	-6.6%
Jun 21, 12:00 AM	🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	🇹🇳Tunisia	14%	13–14¢	18%	-4.4%
		Draw	22%	23–24¢	30%	-8.4%
		🇯🇵Japan	65%	64–65¢	71%	-6.2%
Jun 21, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	🇪🇸Spain	85%	88–89¢	93%	-7.7%
		Draw	10%	8–9¢	13%	-2.7%
		🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	4%	4–5¢	9%	-4.6%
Jun 21, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇧🇪Belgium	57%	68–69¢	75%	-17.6%
		Draw	21%	19–20¢	26%	-5.3%
		🇮🇷Iran	22%	12–13¢	17%	+4.9%

Matches today

Group stageJun 17, 7:00 PM

🇬🇭Ghana

1.5 – 1.3projected goals

🇵🇦Panama

Ghana 43% · draw 25% · Panama 33%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Ghana 41% · draw 30% · Panama 29%

Group stageJun 17, 10:00 PM

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

0.7 – 2.2projected goals

🇨🇴Colombia

Uzbekistan 11% · draw 18% · Colombia 71%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Uzbekistan 9% · draw 19% · Colombia 71%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 18, 12:00 PM

🇨🇿Czech Republic

1.7 – 1.1projected goals

🇿🇦South Africa

Czech Republic 51% · draw 24% · South Africa 25%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Czech Republic 54% · draw 25% · South Africa 20%

Group stageJun 18, 3:00 PM

🇨🇭Switzerland

2.3 – 0.8projected goals

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina

Switzerland 71% · draw 18% · Bosnia and Herzegovina 12%total 3.1 goals

Group stageJun 18, 6:00 PM

🇨🇦Canada

2.5 – 0.8projected goals

🇶🇦Qatar

Canada 76% · draw 15% · Qatar 9%total 3.3 goals

Bookmakers: Canada 77% · draw 16% · Qatar 7%

Group stageJun 18, 9:00 PM

🇲🇽Mexico

1.6 – 1.2projected goals

🇰🇷South Korea

Mexico 47% · draw 25% · South Korea 28%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Mexico 48% · draw 29% · South Korea 23%

Group stageJun 19, 3:00 PM

🇺🇸United States

1.1 – 1.8projected goals

🇦🇺Australia

United States 23% · draw 23% · Australia 53%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: United States 61% · draw 22% · Australia 17%

Group stageJun 19, 6:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland

0.7 – 1.4projected goals

🇲🇦Morocco

Scotland 18% · draw 27% · Morocco 55%total 2.1 goals

Bookmakers: Scotland 18% · draw 26% · Morocco 56%

Group stageJun 19, 8:30 PM

🇧🇷Brazil

4.6 – 0.8projected goals

🇭🇹Haiti

Brazil 93% · draw 4% · Haiti 3%total 5.5 goals

Bookmakers: Brazil 90% · draw 7% · Haiti 3%

Group stageJun 19, 11:00 PM

🇹🇷Turkey

1.4 – 1.4projected goals

🇵🇾Paraguay

Turkey 38% · draw 25% · Paraguay 37%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Turkey 48% · draw 28% · Paraguay 24%

Group stageJun 20, 1:00 PM

🇳🇱Netherlands

2.8 – 1.6projected goals

🇸🇪Sweden

Netherlands 64% · draw 17% · Sweden 19%total 4.4 goals

Bookmakers: Netherlands 56% · draw 24% · Sweden 19%

Group stageJun 20, 4:00 PM

🇩🇪Germany

1.7 – 1.1projected goals

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

Germany 51% · draw 24% · Ivory Coast 25%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Germany 63% · draw 21% · Ivory Coast 16%

Group stageJun 20, 8:00 PM

🇪🇨Ecuador

2.8 – 0.3projected goals

🇨🇼Curacao

Ecuador 89% · draw 9% · Curacao 2%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Ecuador 91% · draw 7% · Curacao 3%

Group stageJun 21, 12:00 AM

🇹🇳Tunisia

0.7 – 1.9projected goals

🇯🇵Japan

Tunisia 14% · draw 22% · Japan 65%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Tunisia 13% · draw 22% · Japan 64%

Group stageJun 21, 12:00 PM

🇪🇸Spain

3.0 – 0.6projected goals

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia

Spain 85% · draw 10% · Saudi Arabia 4%total 3.5 goals

Bookmakers: Spain 90% · draw 8% · Saudi Arabia 3%

Group stageJun 21, 3:00 PM

🇧🇪Belgium

2.1 – 1.2projected goals

🇮🇷Iran

Belgium 57% · draw 21% · Iran 22%total 3.4 goals

Bookmakers: Belgium 69% · draw 20% · Iran 11%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2084	21.2%	13.7%
🇫🇷France	2077	18.5%	18.3%
🇦🇷Argentina	2052	14.9%	9.4%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2055	14.8%	12.4%
🇵🇹Portugal	1990	5.5%	8.1%
🇧🇷Brazil	1990	4.9%	6.7%
🇩🇪Germany	1972	3.7%	5.6%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1958	3.0%	3.6%
🇳🇴Norway	1934	2.1%	2.7%
🇨🇴Colombia	1913	1.8%	1.6%
🇧🇪Belgium	1903	1.5%	1.8%
🇺🇸United States	1833	1.1%	1.9%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 17, 4:00 PM	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇭🇷Croatia	4–2
Jun 17, 1:00 PM	🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	1–1
Jun 17, 12:00 AM	🇦🇹Austria vs 🇯🇴Jordan	3–1
Jun 16, 9:00 PM	🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇩🇿Algeria	3–0
Jun 16, 6:00 PM	🇮🇶Iraq vs 🇳🇴Norway	1–4
Jun 16, 3:00 PM	🇫🇷France vs 🇸🇳Senegal	3–1
Jun 15, 9:00 PM	🇮🇷Iran vs 🇳🇿New Zealand	2–2
Jun 15, 6:00 PM	🇸🇦Saudi Arabia vs 🇺🇾Uruguay	1–1
Jun 15, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇪🇬Egypt	1–1
Jun 15, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	0–0
Jun 14, 10:00 PM	🇸🇪Sweden vs 🇹🇳Tunisia	5–1
Jun 14, 7:00 PM	🇨🇮Ivory Coast vs 🇪🇨Ecuador	1–0

Groups

Group A	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	1	1	0	+2	3	6.7	98.2%
🇰🇷South Korea	1	1	0	+1	3	6.1	95.2%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	1	0	1	-1	0	3.0	59.6%
🇿🇦South Africa	1	0	1	-2	0	1.3	14.5%

Group B	P	D	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇭Switzerland	1	1	+0	1	4.6	82.9%
🇨🇦Canada	1	1	+0	1	4.9	91.9%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	1	1	+0	1	3.9	77.3%
🇶🇦Qatar	1	1	+0	1	1.8	18.1%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	1	1	0	0	+1	3	4.6	81.3%
🇧🇷Brazil	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.9	97.8%
🇲🇦Morocco	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.2	92.8%
🇭🇹Haiti	1	0	0	1	-1	0	0.5	3.1%

Group D	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	1	1	0	+3	3	6.3	97.4%
🇦🇺Australia	1	1	0	+2	3	5.1	86.2%
🇹🇷Turkey	1	0	1	-2	0	3.2	53.4%
🇵🇾Paraguay	1	0	1	-3	0	2.4	32.6%

Group E	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	1	1	0	+6	3	6.7	99.8%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	1	1	0	+1	3	6.4	97.8%
🇪🇨Ecuador	1	0	1	-1	0	3.8	84.5%
🇨🇼Curacao	1	0	1	-6	0	0.4	1.7%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇸🇪Sweden	1	1	0	0	+4	3	5.0	97.0%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.5	95.2%
🇯🇵Japan	1	0	1	0	+0	1	4.9	88.2%
🇹🇳Tunisia	1	0	0	1	-4	0	0.8	4.5%

Group G	P	D	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇮🇷Iran	1	1	+0	1	2.6	39.1%
🇳🇿New Zealand	1	1	+0	1	2.1	26.1%
🇧🇪Belgium	1	1	+0	1	5.9	96.8%
🇪🇬Egypt	1	1	+0	1	4.6	83.1%

Group H	P	D	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇾Uruguay	1	1	+0	1	4.0	80.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	1	1	+0	1	2.3	34.5%
🇪🇸Spain	1	1	+0	1	6.0	98.8%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	1	1	+0	1	3.0	50.9%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇴Norway	1	1	0	+3	3	5.4	97.3%
🇫🇷France	1	1	0	+2	3	7.8	99.9%
🇸🇳Senegal	1	0	1	-2	0	3.7	75.5%
🇮🇶Iraq	1	0	1	-3	0	0.4	1.8%

Group J	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	1	1	0	+3	3	8.0	99.9%
🇦🇹Austria	1	1	0	+2	3	5.2	92.7%
🇯🇴Jordan	1	0	1	-2	0	0.7	4.7%
🇩🇿Algeria	1	0	1	-3	0	3.4	59.1%

Group K	P	D	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇵🇹Portugal	1	1	+0	1	5.1	91.2%
🇨🇩DR Congo	1	1	+0	1	3.1	52.6%
🇨🇴Colombia	0	0	+0	0	5.4	88.2%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	0	0	+0	0	2.3	33.2%

Group L	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	1	1	0	+2	3	8.4	99.9%
🇬🇭Ghana	0	0	0	+0	0	2.3	32.2%
🇵🇦Panama	0	0	0	+0	0	2.0	25.7%
🇭🇷Croatia	1	0	1	-2	0	4.5	85.7%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2084	98.8%	77.3%	60.7%	48.9%	33.5%	21.2%
🇫🇷France	I	2077	99.9%	85.1%	63.8%	47.6%	31.1%	18.5%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2052	99.9%	73.4%	61.3%	44.9%	27.1%	14.9%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2055	99.9%	83.2%	64.8%	43.3%	26.0%	14.8%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1990	91.2%	65.3%	40.7%	22.8%	11.6%	5.5%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	1990	97.8%	63.9%	40.8%	20.3%	10.6%	4.9%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1972	99.8%	69.4%	33.1%	19.1%	8.8%	3.7%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1958	95.2%	56.0%	35.7%	16.2%	7.3%	3.0%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1934	97.3%	60.2%	32.3%	14.7%	5.6%	2.1%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1913	88.2%	53.4%	27.7%	12.2%	4.5%	1.8%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1903	96.8%	65.3%	34.4%	13.1%	4.8%	1.5%
🇺🇸United States	D	1833	97.4%	63.2%	29.7%	10.6%	3.7%	1.1%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1832	98.2%	59.3%	21.2%	7.8%	2.5%	0.8%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1881	84.5%	42.6%	19.2%	6.6%	2.3%	0.7%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1880	85.7%	42.7%	15.0%	7.1%	2.5%	0.7%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1874	75.5%	38.0%	17.5%	5.9%	2.0%	0.7%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1877	92.8%	42.7%	20.5%	7.0%	2.1%	0.6%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1869	80.0%	27.6%	14.5%	6.7%	2.2%	0.6%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1869	88.2%	40.1%	18.4%	6.3%	2.0%	0.5%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1861	82.9%	49.0%	20.7%	6.2%	1.8%	0.5%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1878	53.4%	28.5%	11.4%	4.8%	1.5%	0.4%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1836	92.7%	28.7%	13.1%	4.8%	1.3%	0.3%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1778	91.9%	48.8%	18.4%	4.7%	1.3%	0.3%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1832	97.8%	40.4%	12.6%	4.0%	1.0%	0.3%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1820	97.0%	36.8%	14.1%	3.6%	0.9%	0.3%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1785	59.1%	16.8%	6.2%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1761	95.2%	41.2%	9.8%	1.8%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1746	86.2%	39.2%	8.7%	1.7%	0.3%	<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1745	59.6%	21.0%	5.3%	1.0%	0.1%	<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1779	81.3%	25.7%	7.4%	1.6%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1761	32.6%	12.5%	3.0%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1680	77.3%	21.4%	4.4%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1711	83.1%	27.9%	5.7%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1707	52.6%	10.8%	2.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1550	14.5%	1.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1455	18.1%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1572	3.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1463	1.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1612	4.5%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1643	39.1%	9.4%	1.0%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1559	26.1%	4.0%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1605	50.9%	5.3%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1581	34.5%	2.9%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1532	1.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1560	4.7%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1691	33.2%	6.9%	1.3%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1659	32.2%	5.8%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1635	25.7%	3.9%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.