⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Saturday, June 13 2026 at 5:54 PM

Best bets today $50 unit

KickoffMatchBetModelMarketBlendedPriceStakeTo winExp. profit
Jun 13, 9:00 PM🇭🇹Haiti vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandScotland to win70%64%66%1.56$60$34+$1.60
Jun 13, 6:00 PM🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇲🇦MoroccoDraw28%25%26%3.90$10$29+$0.24

Method: bookmaker margins are removed with a power (Shin-style) de-vig per book, combined by median into the Market consensus. Blended = 35% model + 65% market — the market prices in injuries and lineups the model can't see, so only disagreements that survive this shrinkage count as edge. Bets must clear +2% expected value at the best available price (filters winner's-curse noise across ~18 daily outcomes). Stakes are quarter-Kelly on a 100-unit ($5,000) bankroll, capped at 3 units; Exp. profit = stake × edge under the blended probability. Expect losing days — an edge is an average, not a promise.

Bet record settled bets only

Record 0–2 · staked $180 · net -180 · ROI -100.0% · 2 pending

KickoffMatchBetPriceStakeResultProfit
Jun 13, 3:00 PM🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭SwitzerlandSwitzerland to win1.24$150LOSS-150
Jun 11, 10:00 PM🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech RepublicCzech Republic to win3.15$30LOSS-30

Matches today

Group stageJun 13, 6:00 PM
🇧🇷Brazil
1.3 – 1.1projected goals
🇲🇦Morocco
Brazil 41% · draw 28% · Morocco 31%total 2.3 goals
Bookmakers: Brazil 58% · draw 25% · Morocco 17%
Group stageJun 13, 9:00 PM
🇭🇹Haiti
1.2 – 2.7projected goals
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland
Haiti 14% · draw 16% · Scotland 70%total 3.9 goals
Bookmakers: Haiti 16% · draw 21% · Scotland 64%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 14, 12:00 AM
🇦🇺Australia
1.5 – 1.5projected goals
🇹🇷Turkey
Australia 36% · draw 24% · Turkey 39%total 3.0 goals
Bookmakers: Australia 17% · draw 25% · Turkey 58%
Group stageJun 14, 1:00 PM
🇩🇪Germany
4.7 – 0.6projected goals
🇨🇼Curacao
Germany 95% · draw 3% · Curacao 2%total 5.3 goals
Bookmakers: Germany 95% · draw 3% · Curacao 1%
Group stageJun 14, 4:00 PM
🇳🇱Netherlands
1.3 – 1.4projected goals
🇯🇵Japan
Netherlands 35% · draw 25% · Japan 39%total 2.8 goals
Bookmakers: Netherlands 48% · draw 27% · Japan 25%
Group stageJun 14, 7:00 PM
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
0.6 – 1.0projected goals
🇪🇨Ecuador
Ivory Coast 21% · draw 34% · Ecuador 46%total 1.6 goals
Bookmakers: Ivory Coast 26% · draw 34% · Ecuador 40%
Group stageJun 14, 10:00 PM
🇸🇪Sweden
1.6 – 1.4projected goals
🇹🇳Tunisia
Sweden 41% · draw 24% · Tunisia 34%total 3.0 goals
Bookmakers: Sweden 51% · draw 27% · Tunisia 22%
Group stageJun 15, 12:00 PM
🇪🇸Spain
3.4 – 0.6projected goals
🇨🇻Cape Verde
Spain 88% · draw 8% · Cape Verde 4%total 4.0 goals
Bookmakers: Spain 91% · draw 6% · Cape Verde 2%
Group stageJun 15, 3:00 PM
🇧🇪Belgium
1.7 – 0.9projected goals
🇪🇬Egypt
Belgium 55% · draw 24% · Egypt 21%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: Belgium 61% · draw 23% · Egypt 16%
Group stageJun 15, 6:00 PM
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
0.5 – 1.7projected goals
🇺🇾Uruguay
Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 23% · Uruguay 67%total 2.2 goals
Bookmakers: Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 21% · Uruguay 68%
Group stageJun 15, 9:00 PM
🇮🇷Iran
2.0 – 0.7projected goals
🇳🇿New Zealand
Iran 69% · draw 20% · New Zealand 12%total 2.7 goals
Bookmakers: Iran 53% · draw 27% · New Zealand 20%
Group stageJun 16, 3:00 PM
🇫🇷France
1.7 – 1.2projected goals
🇸🇳Senegal
France 48% · draw 24% · Senegal 28%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: France 67% · draw 21% · Senegal 12%
Group stageJun 16, 6:00 PM
🇮🇶Iraq
0.7 – 2.2projected goals
🇳🇴Norway
Iraq 11% · draw 18% · Norway 71%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Iraq 5% · draw 12% · Norway 83%
Group stageJun 16, 9:00 PM
🇦🇷Argentina
1.8 – 0.7projected goals
🇩🇿Algeria
Argentina 66% · draw 22% · Algeria 13%total 2.5 goals
Bookmakers: Argentina 70% · draw 20% · Algeria 10%
Group stageJun 17, 12:00 AM
🇦🇹Austria
2.4 – 1.0projected goals
🇯🇴Jordan
Austria 68% · draw 18% · Jordan 15%total 3.4 goals
Bookmakers: Austria 74% · draw 16% · Jordan 10%
Group stageJun 17, 1:00 PM
🇵🇹Portugal
1.7 – 0.7projected goals
🇨🇩DR Congo
Portugal 61% · draw 24% · DR Congo 16%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Portugal 77% · draw 16% · DR Congo 8%

Who wins the World Cup

TeamRatingModelMarket
🇪🇸Spain210023.8%15.8%
🇫🇷France206817.3%16.2%
🇦🇷Argentina204712.5%8.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England204111.6%11.0%
🇵🇹Portugal20027.6%10.1%
🇧🇷Brazil19975.6%8.3%
🇩🇪Germany19693.9%5.1%
🇳🇱Netherlands19613.4%4.3%
🇳🇴Norway19271.7%2.4%
🇧🇪Belgium19121.7%2.3%
🇹🇷Turkey19101.5%0.9%
🇨🇴Colombia19141.5%1.5%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

DateMatchScore
Jun 13, 3:00 PM🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭Switzerland1–1
Jun 12, 9:00 PM🇺🇸United States vs 🇵🇾Paraguay4–1
Jun 12, 3:00 PM🇨🇦Canada vs 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina1–1
Jun 11, 10:00 PM🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech Republic2–1
Jun 11, 3:00 PM🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇿🇦South Africa2–0

Groups

Group APWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇲🇽Mexico1100+236.899.1%
🇰🇷South Korea1100+136.195.6%
🇨🇿Czech Republic1001-103.063.9%
🇿🇦South Africa1001-201.316.7%
Group BPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇭Switzerland1010+014.683.5%
🇨🇦Canada1010+014.992.2%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina1010+013.977.6%
🇶🇦Qatar1010+011.818.1%
Group CPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇷Brazil0000+006.898.0%
🇲🇦Morocco0000+005.188.9%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland0000+003.768.7%
🇭🇹Haiti0000+001.213.7%
Group DPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇺🇸United States1100+336.397.9%
🇹🇷Turkey0000+005.589.0%
🇦🇺Australia0000+002.641.2%
🇵🇾Paraguay1001-302.437.1%
Group EPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇩🇪Germany0000+006.598.2%
🇪🇨Ecuador0000+005.795.8%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast0000+004.383.8%
🇨🇼Curacao0000+000.53.5%
Group FPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇳🇱Netherlands0000+006.395.1%
🇯🇵Japan0000+004.984.7%
🇸🇪Sweden0000+003.970.1%
🇹🇳Tunisia0000+001.621.8%
Group GPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇪Belgium0000+007.298.1%
🇪🇬Egypt0000+004.275.6%
🇮🇷Iran0000+003.460.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand0000+002.029.5%
Group HPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇸Spain0000+008.099.9%
🇺🇾Uruguay0000+005.594.3%
🇨🇻Cape Verde0000+002.026.2%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia0000+001.719.9%
Group IPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇫🇷France0000+006.998.9%
🇳🇴Norway0000+005.191.4%
🇸🇳Senegal0000+004.586.1%
🇮🇶Iraq0000+000.64.0%
Group JPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇦🇷Argentina0000+007.499.0%
🇦🇹Austria0000+004.380.4%
🇩🇿Algeria0000+004.074.0%
🇯🇴Jordan0000+001.213.8%
Group KPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇵🇹Portugal0000+006.797.4%
🇨🇴Colombia0000+005.590.3%
🇨🇩DR Congo0000+002.337.7%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan0000+002.335.6%
Group LPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England0000+007.399.1%
🇭🇷Croatia0000+005.591.9%
🇬🇭Ghana0000+002.234.8%
🇵🇦Panama0000+001.927.7%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

TeamGrpRatingLast 32Last 16QuartersSemisFinalChampion
🇪🇸SpainH210099.9%81.2%62.5%50.3%35.3%23.8%
🇫🇷FranceI206898.9%83.1%61.5%44.5%30.0%17.3%
🇦🇷ArgentinaJ204799.0%68.7%53.8%37.5%21.4%12.5%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandL204199.1%78.7%55.4%36.1%21.7%11.6%
🇵🇹PortugalK200297.4%72.9%49.2%28.0%14.6%7.6%
🇧🇷BrazilC199798.0%67.5%42.9%23.8%12.8%5.6%
🇩🇪GermanyE196998.2%67.8%34.2%19.6%9.3%3.9%
🇳🇱NetherlandsF196195.1%57.5%38.2%18.8%8.8%3.4%
🇳🇴NorwayI192791.4%56.0%29.4%13.2%5.1%1.7%
🇧🇪BelgiumG191298.1%65.6%34.7%11.9%4.7%1.7%
🇹🇷TurkeyD191089.0%60.9%28.8%11.1%4.1%1.5%
🇨🇴ColombiaK191490.3%52.1%24.8%11.1%4.0%1.5%
🇪🇨EcuadorE190695.8%53.3%23.2%10.2%3.8%1.3%
🇭🇷CroatiaL189691.9%49.4%20.4%9.3%3.6%1.1%
🇺🇸United StatesD183397.9%64.8%28.7%9.7%3.1%1.0%
🇲🇽MexicoA183299.1%57.9%22.7%8.5%2.8%0.8%
🇸🇳SenegalI188586.1%45.1%20.1%7.6%2.3%0.7%
🇲🇦MoroccoC187188.9%41.1%19.7%7.0%2.2%0.6%
🇺🇾UruguayH188194.3%35.5%18.2%7.5%2.0%0.5%
🇨🇭SwitzerlandB186283.5%51.9%20.6%6.6%1.9%0.4%
🇯🇵JapanF186884.7%36.8%17.3%5.7%1.9%0.4%
🇨🇦CanadaB177892.2%51.0%17.9%5.0%1.2%0.3%
🇨🇮Ivory CoastE180983.8%31.7%9.7%2.7%0.6%0.1%
🇦🇹AustriaJ182380.4%22.7%9.1%2.9%0.6%0.1%
🇩🇿AlgeriaJ179174.0%19.2%6.6%1.9%0.5%<0.1%
🇰🇷South KoreaA176195.6%40.4%10.2%2.2%0.4%<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandC177368.7%20.3%6.2%1.4%0.3%<0.1%
🇸🇪SwedenF179970.1%23.3%7.8%2.3%0.6%<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech RepublicA174563.9%21.3%5.5%0.8%0.1%<0.1%
🇵🇾ParaguayD176137.1%12.4%2.8%0.6%<0.1%<0.1%
🇿🇦South AfricaA154916.7%2.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇶🇦QatarB145418.1%1.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaB168077.6%22.0%3.8%0.4%<0.1%0.0%
🇭🇹HaitiC157713.7%1.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇦🇺AustraliaD171541.2%13.0%2.5%0.4%<0.1%0.0%
🇨🇼CuracaoE14653.5%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇹🇳TunisiaF163321.8%3.2%0.4%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇪🇬EgyptG170375.6%22.4%3.9%0.6%<0.1%0.0%
🇮🇷IranG165060.0%12.3%1.8%0.1%<0.1%0.0%
🇳🇿New ZealandG155029.5%3.6%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇻Cape VerdeH159026.2%2.3%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaH156919.9%1.7%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇶IraqI15384.0%0.4%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇯🇴JordanJ157113.8%1.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇺🇿UzbekistanK169035.6%6.8%1.1%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇨🇩DR CongoK169637.7%7.3%1.4%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇬🇭GhanaL166034.8%5.4%1.2%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇵🇦PanamaL163427.7%3.4%0.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.