⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Monday, June 22 2026 at 8:00 PM

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L

-$256.89

after $0.80 costs

Realized

-$256.09

22 settled

At risk

$81.45

4 open

ROI

-34.5%

on settled stake

Record

5–17

W–L

Match winner · -18% ROI · CLV -8% (13)Over/Under · -44% ROI · CLV – (6)Both teams to score · -100% ROI · CLV +8% (3)

Match	Bet	Our Prob	Kalshi Prob	Net Edge	Cost	Status	P&L
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Over 3.5 goals	45%	27¢	+11.8%	$18.36	Placed	–
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Both score	33%	21¢	+5.5%	$10.92	Placed	–
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$39.56	Placed	–
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇶🇦Qatar	21%	13¢	+3.7%	$12.61	Placed	–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$74.40	Won	+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	17¢	+4.4%	$28.56	Lost	-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	22%	13¢	+4.9%	$15.86	Lost	-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	30%	18¢	+6.0%	$74.95	Lost	-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	20%	13¢	+3.0%	$17.03	Lost	-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	89%	80¢	+3.2%	$8.00	Won	+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	16%	5¢	+6.8%	$0.10	Lost	-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	75%	46¢	+23.0%	$58.88	Lost	-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	20%	10¢	+5.5%	$15.46	Lost	-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	44%	25¢	+12.6%	$25.04	Lost	-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	18%	10¢	+4.3%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	89%	78¢	+5.3%	$67.08	Won	+18.92
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both score	60%	48¢	+6.5%	$32.64	Lost	-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19.84	Lost	-19.84
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 2.5 goals	62%	43¢	+12.9%	$42.45	Lost	-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Both score	19%	10¢	+5.2%	$14.52	Lost	-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	90%	68¢	+15.5%	$38.08	Won	+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 4.5 goals	43%	16¢	+23.4%	$34.24	Lost	-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	86¢	+10.0%	$74.72	Won	+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	🇳🇿New Zealand	26%	16¢	+6.2%	$47.42	Lost	-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Draw	27%	13¢	+10.5%	$26.06	Lost	-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	51%	41¢	+4.1%	$13.12	Lost	-13.12

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 15 graded

Accuracy 67% ±24% · always-favorite baseline 47% · Brier 0.538 (base-rate 0.640) · skill +15.9% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 15 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~35 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 22, 5:00 PM

🇫🇷France

1.9 – 0.7projected goals

🇮🇶Iraq

France 85% · draw 10% · Iraq 6%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: France 92% · draw 6% · Iraq 2%

Group stageJun 22, 8:00 PM

🇳🇴Norway

1.3 – 1.4projected goals

🇸🇳Senegal

Norway 41% · draw 25% · Senegal 34%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Norway 41% · draw 28% · Senegal 30%

Group stageJun 22, 11:00 PM

🇯🇴Jordan

1.1 – 2.3projected goals

🇩🇿Algeria

Jordan 12% · draw 17% · Algeria 71%total 3.3 goals

Bookmakers: Jordan 14% · draw 22% · Algeria 64%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 23, 1:00 PM

🇵🇹Portugal

1.6 – 0.8projected goals

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

Portugal 71% · draw 18% · Uzbekistan 11%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Portugal 84% · draw 11% · Uzbekistan 5%

Group stageJun 23, 4:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

1.8 – 0.6projected goals

🇬🇭Ghana

England 80% · draw 13% · Ghana 6%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: England 82% · draw 13% · Ghana 6%

Group stageJun 23, 7:00 PM

🇵🇦Panama

1.1 – 1.8projected goals

🇭🇷Croatia

Panama 14% · draw 17% · Croatia 69%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Panama 14% · draw 22% · Croatia 64%

Group stageJun 23, 10:00 PM

🇨🇴Colombia

1.5 – 0.8projected goals

🇨🇩DR Congo

Colombia 63% · draw 22% · DR Congo 15%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Colombia 63% · draw 23% · DR Congo 14%

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇨🇭Switzerland

1.2 – 1.2projected goals

🇨🇦Canada

Switzerland 41% · draw 26% · Canada 33%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Switzerland 39% · draw 31% · Canada 30%

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina

1.5 – 1.2projected goals

🇶🇦Qatar

Bosnia and Herzegovina 60% · draw 20% · Qatar 19%total 2.7 goals

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🇲🇦Morocco

1.9 – 0.7projected goals

🇭🇹Haiti

Morocco 78% · draw 14% · Haiti 7%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Morocco 84% · draw 12% · Haiti 5%

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland

0.9 – 2.3projected goals

🇧🇷Brazil

Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Scotland 11% · draw 18% · Brazil 71%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇨🇿Czech Republic

1.0 – 1.7projected goals

🇲🇽Mexico

Czech Republic 19% · draw 22% · Mexico 59%total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Czech Republic 25% · draw 24% · Mexico 51%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇿🇦South Africa

0.8 – 1.5projected goals

🇰🇷South Korea

South Africa 15% · draw 21% · South Korea 65%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: South Africa 17% · draw 24% · South Korea 60%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇪🇨Ecuador

1.2 – 1.0projected goals

🇩🇪Germany

Ecuador 32% · draw 26% · Germany 42%total 2.1 goals

Bookmakers: Ecuador 26% · draw 24% · Germany 51%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇨🇼Curacao

0.6 – 2.1projected goals

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

Curacao 5% · draw 12% · Ivory Coast 83%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Curacao 4% · draw 10% · Ivory Coast 86%

Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM

🇹🇳Tunisia

0.9 – 1.8projected goals

🇳🇱Netherlands

Tunisia 9% · draw 14% · Netherlands 77%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Tunisia 3% · draw 9% · Netherlands 88%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2111	24.0%	14.0%
🇦🇷Argentina	2066	18.5%	11.8%
🇫🇷France	2088	17.2%	19.3%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2065	14.2%	12.6%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1991	4.0%	4.8%
🇩🇪Germany	1986	4.0%	5.5%
🇧🇷Brazil	1986	3.8%	5.7%
🇵🇹Portugal	1983	3.5%	7.1%
🇺🇸United States	1855	1.8%	2.4%
🇳🇴Norway	1939	1.6%	2.1%
🇧🇪Belgium	1933	1.5%	1.4%
🇨🇴Colombia	1921	1.3%	1.5%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 22, 1:00 PM	🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	2–0
Jun 21, 9:00 PM	🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM	🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	4–0
Jun 21, 12:00 AM	🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	0–4
Jun 20, 8:00 PM	🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	0–0
Jun 20, 4:00 PM	🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2–1
Jun 20, 1:00 PM	🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	5–1
Jun 19, 11:00 PM	🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	0–1
Jun 19, 8:30 PM	🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	3–0
Jun 19, 6:00 PM	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	0–1

Groups

Group A	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	2	2	0	0	+3	6	7.9	100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.2	95.5%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	2	0	1	1	-1	1	1.8	22.5%
🇿🇦South Africa	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.6	13.3%

Group B	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇦Canada	2	1	1	0	+6	4	5.2	100.0%
🇨🇭Switzerland	2	1	1	0	+3	4	5.5	100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	0	1	1	-3	1	3.3	69.2%
🇶🇦Qatar	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.5	11.9%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	2	1	1	0	+3	4	6.2	100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	2	1	1	0	+1	4	6.6	100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	2	1	0	1	+0	3	3.6	84.8%
🇭🇹Haiti	2	0	0	2	-4	0	0.3	0.0%

Group D	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	2	2	0	+5	6	7.3	100.0%
🇦🇺Australia	2	1	1	+0	3	4.2	93.3%
🇵🇾Paraguay	2	1	1	-2	3	4.5	88.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	2	0	2	-3	0	1.4	0.0%

Group E	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	2	2	0	0	+7	6	7.8	100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.7	98.5%
🇪🇨Ecuador	2	0	1	1	-1	1	2.0	26.2%
🇨🇼Curacao	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.2	4.1%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇱Netherlands	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.7	100.0%
🇯🇵Japan	2	1	1	0	+4	4	5.6	100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden	2	1	0	1	+0	3	4.2	96.3%
🇹🇳Tunisia	2	0	0	2	-8	0	0.2	0.0%

Group G	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇬Egypt	2	1	1	0	+2	4	5.6	100.0%
🇮🇷Iran	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.1	56.7%
🇧🇪Belgium	2	0	2	0	+0	2	4.7	96.7%
🇳🇿New Zealand	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.2	3.5%

Group H	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.2	100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	2	0	2	0	+0	2	2.6	38.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.4	66.1%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	2	0	1	1	-4	1	2.3	34.7%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇴Norway	1	1	0	+3	3	5.4	99.2%
🇫🇷France	1	1	0	+2	3	7.9	99.9%
🇸🇳Senegal	1	0	1	-2	0	3.7	83.8%
🇮🇶Iraq	1	0	1	-3	0	0.3	2.6%

Group J	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	2	2	0	+5	6	8.9	100.0%
🇦🇹Austria	2	1	1	+0	3	4.5	95.9%
🇯🇴Jordan	1	0	1	-2	0	0.7	7.0%
🇩🇿Algeria	1	0	1	-3	0	3.5	69.3%

Group K	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇴Colombia	1	1	0	0	+2	3	6.3	99.0%
🇵🇹Portugal	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.1	92.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	1	0	1	0	+0	1	3.2	57.4%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	1	0	0	1	-2	0	1.6	25.8%

Group L	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	1	1	0	+2	3	8.5	100.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	1	1	0	+1	3	3.9	73.3%
🇵🇦Panama	1	0	1	-1	0	0.6	7.2%
🇭🇷Croatia	1	0	1	-2	0	4.5	88.4%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2111	100.0%	85.8%	68.7%	56.5%	37.8%	24.0%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2066	100.0%	92.1%	76.1%	56.9%	32.4%	18.5%
🇫🇷France	I	2088	99.9%	89.7%	63.9%	45.2%	29.8%	17.2%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2065	100.0%	83.6%	65.0%	44.8%	26.2%	14.2%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1991	100.0%	60.7%	43.7%	19.9%	9.7%	4.0%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1986	100.0%	83.8%	35.6%	20.8%	9.7%	4.0%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	1986	100.0%	62.5%	39.2%	19.0%	8.8%	3.8%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1983	92.0%	65.8%	37.0%	18.2%	7.9%	3.5%
🇺🇸United States	D	1855	100.0%	77.1%	47.9%	14.9%	5.2%	1.8%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1939	99.2%	67.3%	34.9%	14.6%	5.3%	1.6%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1933	96.7%	72.7%	28.3%	12.9%	4.7%	1.5%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1921	99.0%	64.9%	33.6%	12.7%	4.5%	1.3%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1909	100.0%	46.5%	25.8%	8.4%	3.0%	0.8%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1886	100.0%	70.8%	29.5%	8.6%	2.6%	0.7%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1877	83.8%	45.1%	19.4%	5.6%	1.8%	0.6%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1883	88.4%	42.1%	13.2%	5.5%	1.7%	0.5%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1841	100.0%	60.4%	16.9%	6.5%	2.1%	0.5%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1864	100.0%	37.5%	15.7%	4.8%	1.4%	0.4%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1893	38.0%	17.9%	8.5%	3.5%	1.2%	0.4%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1797	100.0%	64.4%	23.7%	5.3%	1.3%	0.2%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1887	26.2%	13.5%	6.3%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1825	95.9%	23.5%	9.7%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1829	98.5%	31.1%	9.9%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1810	96.3%	28.9%	8.8%	2.1%	0.5%	<0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1787	69.3%	17.8%	6.0%	1.4%	0.3%	<0.1%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1757	95.5%	30.7%	6.3%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1767	84.8%	18.5%	3.6%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1681	25.8%	3.0%	0.5%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1535	13.3%	1.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1745	22.5%	8.3%	2.3%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1424	11.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1657	69.2%	8.8%	1.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1562	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1746	88.0%	23.1%	3.1%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1709	93.3%	23.4%	2.2%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1910	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1451	4.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1602	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1708	100.0%	32.7%	6.1%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1639	56.7%	13.4%	1.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1521	3.5%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1577	66.1%	2.7%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1556	34.7%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1521	2.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1553	7.0%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1721	57.4%	12.0%	2.5%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1684	73.3%	13.0%	2.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1603	7.2%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.