⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Monday, June 22 2026 at 10:30 PM

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L

-$254.59

after $0.80 costs

Realized

-$253.79

25 settled

At risk

$52.17

2 open

ROI

-30.4%

on settled stake

Record

6–19

W–L

Match winner · -8% ROI · CLV -8% (14)Over/Under · -48% ROI · CLV – (7)Both teams to score · -100% ROI · CLV +8% (4)

Match	Bet	Our Prob	Kalshi Prob	Net Edge	Cost	Status	P&L
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$39.56	Placed	–
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇶🇦Qatar	21%	13¢	+3.7%	$12.61	Placed	–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$74.40	Won	+174.60
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	17¢	+4.4%	$28.56	Lost	-28.56
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	22%	13¢	+4.9%	$15.86	Lost	-15.86
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	30%	18¢	+6.0%	$74.95	Lost	-74.95
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	20%	13¢	+3.0%	$17.03	Lost	-17.03
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	89%	80¢	+3.2%	$8.00	Won	+2.00
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	16%	5¢	+6.8%	$0.10	Lost	-0.10
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	75%	46¢	+23.0%	$58.88	Lost	-58.88
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	20%	10¢	+5.5%	$15.46	Lost	-15.46
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	44%	25¢	+12.6%	$25.04	Lost	-25.04
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	18%	10¢	+4.3%	$14.64	Lost	-14.64
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	89%	78¢	+5.3%	$67.08	Won	+18.92
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both score	60%	48¢	+6.5%	$32.64	Lost	-32.64
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19.84	Lost	-19.84
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 2.5 goals	62%	43¢	+12.9%	$42.45	Lost	-42.45
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Both score	19%	10¢	+5.2%	$14.52	Lost	-14.52
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	90%	68¢	+15.5%	$38.08	Won	+17.92
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 4.5 goals	43%	16¢	+23.4%	$34.24	Lost	-34.24
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	86¢	+10.0%	$74.72	Won	+11.28
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	🇳🇿New Zealand	26%	16¢	+6.2%	$47.42	Lost	-47.42
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Draw	27%	13¢	+10.5%	$26.06	Lost	-26.06
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	51%	41¢	+4.1%	$13.12	Lost	-13.12
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Over 3.5 goals	45%	27¢	+11.8%	$18.36	Lost	-18.36
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Both score	33%	21¢	+5.5%	$15.98	Lost	-15.98
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	🇳🇴Norway	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$56.36	Won	+36.64

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in); a market whose rolling CLV stays negative is auto-paused by the circuit-breaker. Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 17 graded

Accuracy 71% ±22% · always-favorite baseline 53% · Brier 0.508 (base-rate 0.609) · skill +16.6% · 16 pending

⚠️ Only 17 games graded — far too few to draw conclusions (need ~33 more). Read this as noise for now. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

Group stageJun 22, 11:00 PM

🇯🇴Jordan

1.1 – 2.3projected goals

🇩🇿Algeria

Jordan 12% · draw 17% · Algeria 71%total 3.3 goals

Bookmakers: Jordan 14% · draw 21% · Algeria 64%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 23, 1:00 PM

🇵🇹Portugal

1.6 – 0.8projected goals

🇺🇿Uzbekistan

Portugal 71% · draw 18% · Uzbekistan 11%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Portugal 85% · draw 11% · Uzbekistan 4%

Group stageJun 23, 4:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England

1.8 – 0.6projected goals

🇬🇭Ghana

England 80% · draw 13% · Ghana 6%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: England 82% · draw 13% · Ghana 5%

Group stageJun 23, 7:00 PM

🇵🇦Panama

1.1 – 1.8projected goals

🇭🇷Croatia

Panama 14% · draw 17% · Croatia 69%total 2.9 goals

Bookmakers: Panama 13% · draw 22% · Croatia 65%

Group stageJun 23, 10:00 PM

🇨🇴Colombia

1.5 – 0.8projected goals

🇨🇩DR Congo

Colombia 63% · draw 22% · DR Congo 15%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: Colombia 63% · draw 23% · DR Congo 14%

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇨🇭Switzerland

1.2 – 1.2projected goals

🇨🇦Canada

Switzerland 41% · draw 26% · Canada 33%total 2.4 goals

Bookmakers: Switzerland 40% · draw 31% · Canada 29%

Group stageJun 24, 3:00 PM

🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina

1.5 – 1.2projected goals

🇶🇦Qatar

Bosnia and Herzegovina 60% · draw 20% · Qatar 19%total 2.7 goals

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🇲🇦Morocco

1.9 – 0.7projected goals

🇭🇹Haiti

Morocco 78% · draw 14% · Haiti 7%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Morocco 84% · draw 12% · Haiti 5%

Group stageJun 24, 6:00 PM

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland

0.9 – 2.3projected goals

🇧🇷Brazil

Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 72%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Scotland 11% · draw 17% · Brazil 71%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇨🇿Czech Republic

1.0 – 1.7projected goals

🇲🇽Mexico

Czech Republic 19% · draw 22% · Mexico 59%total 2.7 goals

Bookmakers: Czech Republic 25% · draw 24% · Mexico 51%

Group stageJun 24, 9:00 PM

🇿🇦South Africa

0.8 – 1.5projected goals

🇰🇷South Korea

South Africa 15% · draw 21% · South Korea 65%total 2.3 goals

Bookmakers: South Africa 17% · draw 24% · South Korea 59%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇪🇨Ecuador

1.2 – 1.0projected goals

🇩🇪Germany

Ecuador 32% · draw 26% · Germany 42%total 2.1 goals

Bookmakers: Ecuador 26% · draw 24% · Germany 50%

Group stageJun 25, 4:00 PM

🇨🇼Curacao

0.6 – 2.1projected goals

🇨🇮Ivory Coast

Curacao 5% · draw 12% · Ivory Coast 83%total 2.8 goals

Bookmakers: Curacao 4% · draw 10% · Ivory Coast 85%

Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM

🇹🇳Tunisia

0.9 – 1.8projected goals

🇳🇱Netherlands

Tunisia 9% · draw 14% · Netherlands 77%total 2.6 goals

Bookmakers: Tunisia 3% · draw 9% · Netherlands 88%

Group stageJun 25, 7:00 PM

🇯🇵Japan

2.4 – 0.9projected goals

🇸🇪Sweden

Japan 61% · draw 20% · Sweden 19%total 3.3 goals

Bookmakers: Japan 50% · draw 27% · Sweden 22%

Group stageJun 25, 10:00 PM

🇹🇷Turkey

1.8 – 1.4projected goals

🇺🇸United States

Turkey 42% · draw 24% · United States 34%total 3.2 goals

Bookmakers: Turkey 27% · draw 23% · United States 50%

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2111	24.0%	13.9%
🇫🇷France	2091	18.3%	19.3%
🇦🇷Argentina	2067	17.8%	11.8%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2066	13.9%	12.4%
🇳🇱Netherlands	1991	4.0%	4.9%
🇩🇪Germany	1987	3.8%	5.5%
🇵🇹Portugal	1983	3.6%	7.1%
🇧🇷Brazil	1987	3.4%	5.7%
🇳🇴Norway	1950	2.2%	2.2%
🇧🇪Belgium	1933	1.7%	1.4%
🇺🇸United States	1855	1.5%	2.4%
🇨🇴Colombia	1921	1.4%	1.6%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

Date	Match	Score
Jun 22, 8:00 PM	🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	3–2
Jun 22, 5:00 PM	🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	3–0
Jun 22, 1:00 PM	🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	2–0
Jun 21, 9:00 PM	🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	1–3
Jun 21, 6:00 PM	🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	2–2
Jun 21, 3:00 PM	🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	0–0
Jun 21, 12:00 PM	🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	4–0
Jun 21, 12:00 AM	🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	0–4
Jun 20, 8:00 PM	🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	0–0
Jun 20, 4:00 PM	🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2–1
Jun 20, 1:00 PM	🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	5–1
Jun 19, 11:00 PM	🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	0–1

Groups

Group A	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	2	2	0	0	+3	6	7.9	100.0%
🇰🇷South Korea	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.2	96.0%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	2	0	1	1	-1	1	1.8	22.2%
🇿🇦South Africa	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.6	13.1%

Group B	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇦Canada	2	1	1	0	+6	4	5.2	100.0%
🇨🇭Switzerland	2	1	1	0	+3	4	5.5	100.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	2	0	1	1	-3	1	3.3	69.2%
🇶🇦Qatar	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.6	12.6%

Group C	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	2	1	1	0	+3	4	6.2	100.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	2	1	1	0	+1	4	6.6	100.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	2	1	0	1	+0	3	3.6	85.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	2	0	0	2	-4	0	0.3	0.0%

Group D	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇺🇸United States	2	2	0	+5	6	7.4	100.0%
🇦🇺Australia	2	1	1	+0	3	4.2	93.3%
🇵🇾Paraguay	2	1	1	-2	3	4.5	88.4%
🇹🇷Turkey	2	0	2	-3	0	1.4	0.0%

Group E	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	2	2	0	0	+7	6	7.8	100.0%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	2	1	0	1	+0	3	5.7	98.5%
🇪🇨Ecuador	2	0	1	1	-1	1	2.0	25.9%
🇨🇼Curacao	2	0	1	1	-6	1	1.2	4.5%

Group F	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇳🇱Netherlands	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.7	100.0%
🇯🇵Japan	2	1	1	0	+4	4	5.6	100.0%
🇸🇪Sweden	2	1	0	1	+0	3	4.2	96.5%
🇹🇳Tunisia	2	0	0	2	-8	0	0.2	0.0%

Group G	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇬Egypt	2	1	1	0	+2	4	5.7	100.0%
🇮🇷Iran	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.1	56.4%
🇧🇪Belgium	2	0	2	0	+0	2	4.7	96.4%
🇳🇿New Zealand	2	0	1	1	-2	1	1.2	3.8%

Group H	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	2	1	1	0	+4	4	6.2	100.0%
🇺🇾Uruguay	2	0	2	0	+0	2	2.6	37.7%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	2	0	2	0	+0	2	3.5	67.5%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	2	0	1	1	-4	1	2.3	33.4%

Group I	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇫🇷France	2	2	0	+5	6	7.9	100.0%
🇳🇴Norway	2	2	0	+4	6	6.8	100.0%
🇸🇳Senegal	2	0	2	-3	0	2.6	80.1%
🇮🇶Iraq	2	0	2	-6	0	0.3	2.7%

Group J	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	2	2	0	+5	6	8.9	100.0%
🇦🇹Austria	2	1	1	+0	3	4.5	96.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	1	0	1	-2	0	0.6	6.4%
🇩🇿Algeria	1	0	1	-3	0	3.5	70.9%

Group K	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🇨🇴Colombia	1	1	0	0	+2	3	6.3	99.0%
🇵🇹Portugal	1	0	1	0	+0	1	5.1	92.6%
🇨🇩DR Congo	1	0	1	0	+0	1	3.2	57.6%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	1	0	0	1	-2	0	1.6	25.7%

Group L	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	1	1	0	+2	3	8.5	99.9%
🇬🇭Ghana	1	1	0	+1	3	3.9	73.5%
🇵🇦Panama	1	0	1	-1	0	0.6	6.6%
🇭🇷Croatia	1	0	1	-2	0	4.6	88.7%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2111	100.0%	85.9%	69.3%	57.5%	38.5%	24.0%
🇫🇷France	I	2091	100.0%	89.3%	64.6%	47.1%	31.1%	18.3%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2067	100.0%	91.6%	75.6%	57.2%	32.6%	17.8%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2066	99.9%	84.3%	65.4%	44.1%	26.0%	13.9%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1991	100.0%	61.5%	43.8%	19.4%	9.0%	4.0%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1987	100.0%	84.0%	34.6%	20.6%	9.3%	3.8%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	1983	92.6%	66.4%	38.2%	18.5%	8.5%	3.6%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	1987	100.0%	61.9%	36.6%	17.2%	7.9%	3.4%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1950	100.0%	71.5%	36.8%	16.1%	6.2%	2.2%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1933	96.4%	72.4%	28.4%	13.2%	5.0%	1.7%
🇺🇸United States	D	1855	100.0%	77.6%	49.1%	14.7%	4.9%	1.5%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1921	99.0%	64.0%	33.5%	12.2%	4.1%	1.4%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1909	100.0%	46.4%	25.0%	8.3%	2.7%	0.8%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1887	100.0%	70.7%	30.0%	8.2%	2.5%	0.7%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1841	100.0%	61.5%	17.4%	7.0%	2.0%	0.6%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1883	88.7%	42.0%	13.2%	5.8%	1.6%	0.4%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1867	80.1%	39.6%	17.3%	4.4%	1.2%	0.3%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1797	100.0%	64.3%	23.6%	5.3%	1.4%	0.3%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1894	37.7%	18.5%	8.6%	3.3%	0.9%	0.3%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1864	100.0%	37.4%	15.2%	4.4%	1.2%	0.2%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1825	96.0%	24.2%	9.5%	2.9%	0.7%	0.2%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1887	25.9%	13.4%	6.3%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1830	98.5%	27.0%	9.0%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1810	96.5%	29.3%	8.4%	1.9%	0.4%	<0.1%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1746	88.4%	22.7%	2.7%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1757	96.0%	31.0%	6.9%	1.0%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1787	70.9%	18.9%	6.6%	1.3%	0.2%	<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1767	85.0%	18.7%	3.8%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1708	100.0%	33.7%	7.0%	1.0%	0.2%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1535	13.1%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1745	22.2%	8.0%	2.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1423	12.6%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1657	69.2%	8.8%	1.9%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1561	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1709	93.3%	23.7%	2.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1910	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1450	4.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1602	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1639	56.4%	13.6%	1.4%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1521	3.8%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1577	67.5%	2.6%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1556	33.4%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1518	2.7%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1552	6.4%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1681	25.7%	3.3%	0.4%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1721	57.6%	12.0%	2.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1684	73.5%	13.7%	2.6%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1603	6.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.