⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Monday, June 15 2026 at 11:47 AM

Best bets today $50 unit

KickoffMatchBetModelMarketBlendedPriceStakeTo winExp. profit
Jun 15, 9:00 PM🇮🇷Iran vs 🇳🇿New ZealandIran to win69%55%60%1.86$150$129+$16.17
Jun 15, 3:00 PM🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇪🇬EgyptEgypt to win21%16%17%6.50$30$165+$4.08
Jun 15, 12:00 PM🇪🇸Spain vs 🇨🇻Cape VerdeDraw8%6%7%17.40$15$246+$2.47
Jun 15, 6:00 PM🇸🇦Saudi Arabia vs 🇺🇾UruguaySaudi Arabia to win11%11%11%9.50$5$42+$0.13

How we pick these bets: we take every bookmaker's odds, strip out the margin they build in for profit, and average them into the market's honest estimate of each outcome (shown as Market). For match results we blend our model with the market — 35% model, 65% market — because the market already prices in injuries and lineups our model can't see, so a bet only counts when our disagreement is big enough to survive that blend. Over/Under bets use the market alone, since our testing showed the model can't predict goal totals. We only bet when there's at least +2% expected profit at the best price on offer, and we skip likely mistakes rather than real value: odds far out of line with every other book (more than a 20% edge), or heavy favorites priced under 1.40, where you risk a lot to win a little. Stakes use quarter-Kelly — a standard rule that risks more when the edge is bigger — on a $5,000 practice bankroll, capped at $150 a bet; Exp. profit is what a bet makes on average. Expect losing days: an edge is a long-run average, not a promise.

Bet record settled bets only

Record 4–3 · staked $360 · net -109 · ROI -30.2% · 2 pending

Closing-line value: avg +2.7% · beat the close 100% of the time (3 bets). CLV measures whether we got a better price than the market's final line — the best long-run signal that the bets are genuinely sharp.

KickoffMatchBetPriceStakeResultProfitCLV
Jun 14, 7:00 PM🇨🇮Ivory Coast vs 🇪🇨EcuadorEcuador to win2.68$60LOSS-60+4.3%
Jun 14, 1:00 PM🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇼CuracaoOver 4.5 goals2.20$20WIN+24+2.0%
Jun 14, 4:00 PM🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇯🇵JapanOver 2.5 goals2.18$25WIN+30+1.8%
Jun 13, 9:00 PM🇭🇹Haiti vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandScotland to win1.56$60WIN+34–
Jun 13, 6:00 PM🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇲🇦MoroccoDraw3.95$15WIN+44–
Jun 13, 3:00 PM🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭SwitzerlandSwitzerland to win1.24$150LOSS-150–
Jun 11, 10:00 PM🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech RepublicCzech Republic to win3.15$30LOSS-30–

Kalshi edge 16 matches priced · 8 post-fee edges

Our model's probability vs Kalshi's live price for each outcome. Breakeven is the probability an outcome needs to clear Kalshi's ~7% fee + spread; net edge = our probability − breakeven, so only positive values are worth a trade. Read-only — no orders are placed. Treat big edges skeptically: our model is least reliable on longshots, which is where most of them appear.

KickoffMatchOutcomeOurKalshiBreakevenNet edge
Jun 15, 12:00 PM🇪🇸Spain vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde🇪🇸Spain88%90–91¢95%-6.5%
Draw8%5–6¢10%-2.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde4%2–3¢7%-3.5%
Jun 15, 3:00 PM🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇪🇬Egypt🇧🇪Belgium55%61–62¢68%-13.3%
Draw24%23–24¢30%-5.6%
🇪🇬Egypt21%15–16¢20%+0.9%
Jun 15, 6:00 PM🇸🇦Saudi Arabia vs 🇺🇾Uruguay🇸🇦Saudi Arabia11%11–12¢16%-5.1%
Draw23%22–23¢29%-6.1%
🇺🇾Uruguay66%67–68¢74%-7.7%
Jun 15, 9:00 PM🇮🇷Iran vs 🇳🇿New Zealand🇮🇷Iran69%52–53¢59%+9.6%
Draw20%28–29¢35%-15.4%
🇳🇿New Zealand12%19–20¢26%-14.3%
Jun 16, 3:00 PM🇫🇷France vs 🇸🇳Senegal🇫🇷France48%66–67¢73%-24.9%
Draw24%21–22¢28%-4.1%
🇸🇳Senegal28%12–13¢17%+11.0%
Jun 16, 6:00 PM🇮🇶Iraq vs 🇳🇴Norway🇮🇶Iraq11%5–6¢10%+0.6%
Draw18%12–13¢17%+0.8%
🇳🇴Norway72%82–83¢87%-15.4%
Jun 16, 9:00 PM🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇩🇿Algeria🇦🇷Argentina65%70–71¢77%-12.2%
Draw22%20–21¢27%-4.8%
🇩🇿Algeria13%10–11¢15%-2.0%
Jun 17, 12:00 AM🇦🇹Austria vs 🇯🇴Jordan🇦🇹Austria68%72–73¢79%-11.3%
Draw18%17–18¢24%-6.2%
🇯🇴Jordan15%10–11¢15%-0.5%
Jun 17, 1:00 PM🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇨🇩DR Congo🇵🇹Portugal61%76–77¢83%-22.0%
Draw24%16–17¢21%+2.6%
🇨🇩DR Congo15%8–9¢13%+2.4%
Jun 17, 4:00 PM🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇭🇷Croatia🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England53%57–58¢64%-10.9%
Draw25%24–25¢31%-6.1%
🇭🇷Croatia22%18–19¢25%-3.0%
Jun 17, 7:00 PM🇬🇭Ghana vs 🇵🇦Panama🇬🇭Ghana43%43–44¢50%-7.3%
Draw25%28–29¢35%-10.2%
🇵🇦Panama32%28–29¢35%-2.5%
Jun 17, 10:00 PM🇺🇿Uzbekistan vs 🇨🇴Colombia🇺🇿Uzbekistan11%9–10¢14%-2.9%
Draw18%19–20¢26%-7.7%
🇨🇴Colombia71%71–72¢78%-7.4%
Jun 18, 12:00 PM🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇿🇦South Africa🇨🇿Czech Republic50%54–55¢61%-10.6%
Draw24%25–26¢32%-7.6%
🇿🇦South Africa25%20–21¢27%-1.8%
Jun 18, 3:00 PM🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina🇨🇭Switzerland71%62–63¢69%+2.0%
Draw17%23–24¢30%-12.5%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina12%15–16¢20%-8.5%
Jun 18, 6:00 PM🇨🇦Canada vs 🇶🇦Qatar🇨🇦Canada75%76–77¢83%-7.6%
Draw15%16–17¢21%-5.6%
🇶🇦Qatar9%8–9¢13%-3.8%
Jun 18, 9:00 PM🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇰🇷South Korea🇲🇽Mexico47%49–50¢56%-8.9%
Draw25%27–28¢34%-9.5%
🇰🇷South Korea28%23–24¢30%-1.6%

Matches today

Group stageJun 15, 12:00 PM
🇪🇸Spain
3.4 – 0.6projected goals
🇨🇻Cape Verde
Spain 88% · draw 8% · Cape Verde 4%total 4.0 goals
Bookmakers: Spain 92% · draw 6% · Cape Verde 2%
Group stageJun 15, 3:00 PM
🇧🇪Belgium
1.7 – 0.9projected goals
🇪🇬Egypt
Belgium 55% · draw 24% · Egypt 21%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: Belgium 61% · draw 23% · Egypt 16%
Group stageJun 15, 6:00 PM
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
0.5 – 1.7projected goals
🇺🇾Uruguay
Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 23% · Uruguay 66%total 2.2 goals
Bookmakers: Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 21% · Uruguay 68%
Group stageJun 15, 9:00 PM
🇮🇷Iran
2.0 – 0.7projected goals
🇳🇿New Zealand
Iran 69% · draw 20% · New Zealand 12%total 2.7 goals
Bookmakers: Iran 55% · draw 27% · New Zealand 18%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 16, 3:00 PM
🇫🇷France
1.7 – 1.2projected goals
🇸🇳Senegal
France 48% · draw 24% · Senegal 28%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: France 67% · draw 21% · Senegal 12%
Group stageJun 16, 6:00 PM
🇮🇶Iraq
0.7 – 2.2projected goals
🇳🇴Norway
Iraq 11% · draw 18% · Norway 72%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Iraq 5% · draw 12% · Norway 83%
Group stageJun 16, 9:00 PM
🇦🇷Argentina
1.8 – 0.7projected goals
🇩🇿Algeria
Argentina 65% · draw 22% · Algeria 13%total 2.5 goals
Bookmakers: Argentina 71% · draw 20% · Algeria 10%
Group stageJun 17, 12:00 AM
🇦🇹Austria
2.4 – 1.0projected goals
🇯🇴Jordan
Austria 68% · draw 18% · Jordan 15%total 3.4 goals
Bookmakers: Austria 73% · draw 17% · Jordan 10%
Group stageJun 17, 1:00 PM
🇵🇹Portugal
1.7 – 0.7projected goals
🇨🇩DR Congo
Portugal 61% · draw 24% · DR Congo 15%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Portugal 77% · draw 16% · DR Congo 8%
Group stageJun 17, 4:00 PM
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England
1.6 – 0.9projected goals
🇭🇷Croatia
England 53% · draw 25% · Croatia 22%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: England 57% · draw 25% · Croatia 18%
Group stageJun 17, 7:00 PM
🇬🇭Ghana
1.5 – 1.3projected goals
🇵🇦Panama
Ghana 43% · draw 25% · Panama 32%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Ghana 45% · draw 28% · Panama 27%
Group stageJun 17, 10:00 PM
🇺🇿Uzbekistan
0.7 – 2.2projected goals
🇨🇴Colombia
Uzbekistan 11% · draw 18% · Colombia 71%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Uzbekistan 9% · draw 19% · Colombia 71%
Group stageJun 18, 12:00 PM
🇨🇿Czech Republic
1.7 – 1.1projected goals
🇿🇦South Africa
Czech Republic 50% · draw 24% · South Africa 25%total 2.7 goals
Bookmakers: Czech Republic 55% · draw 25% · South Africa 20%
Group stageJun 18, 3:00 PM
🇨🇭Switzerland
2.3 – 0.8projected goals
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina
Switzerland 71% · draw 17% · Bosnia and Herzegovina 12%total 3.1 goals
Group stageJun 18, 6:00 PM
🇨🇦Canada
2.5 – 0.8projected goals
🇶🇦Qatar
Canada 75% · draw 15% · Qatar 9%total 3.3 goals
Bookmakers: Canada 77% · draw 15% · Qatar 7%
Group stageJun 18, 9:00 PM
🇲🇽Mexico
1.6 – 1.2projected goals
🇰🇷South Korea
Mexico 47% · draw 25% · South Korea 28%total 2.8 goals
Bookmakers: Mexico 49% · draw 28% · South Korea 23%

Who wins the World Cup

TeamRatingModelMarket
🇪🇸Spain209923.5%15.7%
🇫🇷France206817.8%16.2%
🇦🇷Argentina204713.5%7.8%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England204111.8%11.0%
🇵🇹Portugal20026.9%10.1%
🇧🇷Brazil19915.5%7.1%
🇩🇪Germany19724.3%5.9%
🇳🇱Netherlands19592.9%4.3%
🇳🇴Norway19271.8%2.3%
🇧🇪Belgium19111.6%2.1%
🇨🇴Colombia19131.5%1.5%
🇭🇷Croatia18961.1%0.7%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

DateMatchScore
Jun 14, 10:00 PM🇸🇪Sweden vs 🇹🇳Tunisia5–1
Jun 14, 7:00 PM🇨🇮Ivory Coast vs 🇪🇨Ecuador1–0
Jun 14, 4:00 PM🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇯🇵Japan2–2
Jun 14, 1:00 PM🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇼Curacao7–1
Jun 14, 12:00 AM🇦🇺Australia vs 🇹🇷Turkey2–0
Jun 13, 9:00 PM🇭🇹Haiti vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland0–1
Jun 13, 6:00 PM🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇲🇦Morocco1–1
Jun 13, 3:00 PM🇶🇦Qatar vs 🇨🇭Switzerland1–1
Jun 12, 9:00 PM🇺🇸United States vs 🇵🇾Paraguay4–1
Jun 12, 3:00 PM🇨🇦Canada vs 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina1–1
Jun 11, 10:00 PM🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech Republic2–1
Jun 11, 3:00 PM🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇿🇦South Africa2–0

Groups

Group APWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇲🇽Mexico1100+236.898.8%
🇰🇷South Korea1100+136.194.8%
🇨🇿Czech Republic1001-103.062.8%
🇿🇦South Africa1001-201.314.8%
Group BPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇭Switzerland1010+014.683.6%
🇨🇦Canada1010+014.992.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina1010+013.976.5%
🇶🇦Qatar1010+011.818.1%
Group CPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland1100+134.682.3%
🇧🇷Brazil1010+015.997.7%
🇲🇦Morocco1010+015.292.2%
🇭🇹Haiti1001-100.63.6%
Group DPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇺🇸United States1100+336.397.6%
🇦🇺Australia1100+235.287.3%
🇹🇷Turkey1001-203.255.3%
🇵🇾Paraguay1001-302.432.8%
Group EPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇩🇪Germany1100+636.699.8%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast1100+136.597.9%
🇪🇨Ecuador1001-103.885.8%
🇨🇼Curacao1001-600.41.5%
Group FPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇸🇪Sweden1100+435.097.6%
🇳🇱Netherlands1010+015.594.8%
🇯🇵Japan1010+014.989.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia1001-400.84.5%
Group GPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇪Belgium0000+007.298.0%
🇪🇬Egypt0000+004.274.0%
🇮🇷Iran0000+003.459.2%
🇳🇿New Zealand0000+002.128.6%
Group HPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇸Spain0000+008.099.9%
🇺🇾Uruguay0000+005.594.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde0000+001.922.7%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia0000+001.718.0%
Group IPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇫🇷France0000+006.999.0%
🇳🇴Norway0000+005.190.3%
🇸🇳Senegal0000+004.584.6%
🇮🇶Iraq0000+000.63.6%
Group JPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇦🇷Argentina0000+007.499.2%
🇦🇹Austria0000+004.478.7%
🇩🇿Algeria0000+004.071.3%
🇯🇴Jordan0000+001.212.5%
Group KPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇵🇹Portugal0000+006.796.9%
🇨🇴Colombia0000+005.590.1%
🇨🇩DR Congo0000+002.436.1%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan0000+002.333.5%
Group LPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England0000+007.398.8%
🇭🇷Croatia0000+005.591.3%
🇬🇭Ghana0000+002.333.1%
🇵🇦Panama0000+001.925.0%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

TeamGrpRatingLast 32Last 16QuartersSemisFinalChampion
🇪🇸SpainH209999.9%81.2%62.7%50.7%35.4%23.5%
🇫🇷FranceI206899.0%82.8%61.7%44.7%30.5%17.8%
🇦🇷ArgentinaJ204799.2%68.0%55.2%39.1%22.5%13.5%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandL204198.8%77.3%54.1%35.7%21.7%11.8%
🇵🇹PortugalK200296.9%71.4%46.8%26.3%13.2%6.9%
🇧🇷BrazilC199197.7%64.3%40.8%22.7%12.1%5.5%
🇩🇪GermanyE197299.8%69.3%35.4%20.8%9.9%4.3%
🇳🇱NetherlandsF195994.8%56.2%35.8%16.9%7.8%2.9%
🇳🇴NorwayI192790.3%55.1%29.3%13.5%5.5%1.8%
🇧🇪BelgiumG191198.0%65.3%36.9%13.2%5.0%1.6%
🇨🇴ColombiaK191390.1%50.4%23.9%11.8%4.1%1.5%
🇭🇷CroatiaL189691.3%49.9%20.1%9.1%3.3%1.1%
🇸🇳SenegalI188584.6%46.1%21.0%8.6%3.0%1.0%
🇺🇸United StatesD183397.6%62.4%29.0%9.4%3.1%0.9%
🇪🇨EcuadorE188185.8%42.2%19.5%7.1%2.6%0.8%
🇲🇽MexicoA183298.8%56.0%22.5%8.7%3.1%0.7%
🇺🇾UruguayH188194.0%35.2%19.8%8.4%2.4%0.7%
🇲🇦MoroccoC187892.2%43.6%21.6%8.2%2.7%0.7%
🇯🇵JapanF186989.0%40.2%18.9%6.6%2.4%0.7%
🇨🇭SwitzerlandB186283.6%50.7%20.1%6.7%1.8%0.6%
🇹🇷TurkeyD187955.3%28.7%12.1%5.0%1.7%0.4%
🇨🇦CanadaB177892.0%50.2%18.1%4.7%1.2%0.4%
🇨🇮Ivory CoastE183397.9%41.0%13.0%4.5%1.4%0.3%
🇦🇹AustriaJ182378.7%22.6%9.6%3.2%0.8%0.2%
🇸🇪SwedenF182197.6%37.0%14.4%4.1%1.0%0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandC177982.3%26.4%8.3%1.9%0.5%0.1%
🇰🇷South KoreaA176194.8%38.9%9.8%1.9%0.4%<0.1%
🇩🇿AlgeriaJ179171.3%18.8%7.2%1.7%0.3%<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech RepublicA174562.8%21.4%5.9%0.8%0.2%<0.1%
🇦🇺AustraliaD174687.3%39.6%8.9%1.7%0.2%<0.1%
🇵🇾ParaguayD176132.8%12.7%2.9%0.7%0.1%<0.1%
🇪🇬EgyptG170374.0%23.1%3.9%0.6%0.1%<0.1%
🇿🇦South AfricaA154914.8%2.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇶🇦QatarB145418.1%1.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaB168076.5%22.5%4.3%0.4%<0.1%0.0%
🇭🇹HaitiC15713.6%0.5%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇼CuracaoE14621.5%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇹🇳TunisiaF16124.5%0.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇷IranG165059.2%15.0%1.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
🇳🇿New ZealandG155028.6%3.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇻Cape VerdeH159022.7%2.5%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaH156918.0%1.7%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇶IraqI15383.6%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇯🇴JordanJ157212.5%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇺🇿UzbekistanK169033.5%5.9%1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇩DR CongoK169636.1%6.6%1.1%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇬🇭GhanaL166033.1%4.9%0.8%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇵🇦PanamaL163425.0%3.4%0.5%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.