⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Sunday, July 5 2026 at 2:30 AM

⚠️ API fetch failed (HTTP Error 500: ) — using last saved data. No saved data yet, so the schedule and live results are unavailable.

Trading placed Kalshi trades · results · P&L

Net P&L

-$36.73

after $36.73 costs

Realized

+$0.00

0 settled

At risk

$1867.05

89 open

ROI

+0.0%

on settled stake

Record

0–0

W–L

Match winner · +0% ROI · CLV -11% (0)Over/Under · +0% ROI · CLV – (0)Both teams to score · +0% ROI · CLV +8% (0)

Match	Bet	Our Prob	Kalshi Prob	Net Edge	Cost	Status	P&L
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇵🇾Paraguay	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$74.40	Placed	–
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	🇨🇮Ivory Coast	25%	17¢	+4.4%	$28.56	Placed	–
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	22%	13¢	+4.9%	$15.86	Placed	–
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇦🇺Australia	30%	18¢	+6.0%	$74.95	Placed	–
🇺🇸United States vs 🇦🇺Australia	Draw	20%	13¢	+3.0%	$17.03	Placed	–
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	89%	80¢	+3.2%	$8.00	Placed	–
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	16%	5¢	+6.8%	$0.10	Placed	–
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Over 3.5 goals	75%	46¢	+23.0%	$58.88	Placed	–
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇭🇹Haiti	Draw	20%	10¢	+5.5%	$15.46	Placed	–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	🇹🇷Turkey	44%	25¢	+12.6%	$25.04	Placed	–
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇸🇪Sweden	18%	10¢	+4.3%	$14.64	Placed	–
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	89%	78¢	+5.3%	$67.08	Placed	–
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Both score	62%	46¢	+9.6%	$39.56	Placed	–
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇮🇷Iran	Both score	60%	48¢	+6.5%	$32.64	Placed	–
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Both score	41%	31¢	+4.0%	$19.84	Placed	–
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina vs 🇶🇦Qatar	🇶🇦Qatar	21%	13¢	+3.7%	$12.61	Placed	–
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Over 2.5 goals	62%	43¢	+12.9%	$42.45	Placed	–
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇨🇼Curacao	Both score	19%	10¢	+5.2%	$14.52	Placed	–
🇹🇳Tunisia vs 🇯🇵Japan	Over 2.5 goals	90%	68¢	+15.5%	$38.08	Placed	–
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 4.5 goals	43%	16¢	+23.4%	$34.24	Placed	–
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	86¢	+10.0%	$74.72	Placed	–
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇪🇬Egypt	🇳🇿New Zealand	26%	16¢	+6.2%	$47.42	Placed	–
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Draw	27%	13¢	+10.5%	$26.06	Placed	–
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	51%	41¢	+4.1%	$13.12	Placed	–
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Over 3.5 goals	45%	27¢	+11.8%	$18.36	Placed	–
🇫🇷France vs 🇮🇶Iraq	Both score	33%	21¢	+5.5%	$15.98	Placed	–
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇸🇳Senegal	🇳🇴Norway	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$56.36	Placed	–
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	🇯🇴Jordan	27%	14¢	+8.8%	$39.99	Placed	–
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇩🇿Algeria	Over 2.5 goals	55%	34¢	+14.8%	$22.78	Placed	–
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	Both score	33%	20¢	+6.7%	$26.41	Placed	–
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇬🇭Ghana	Over 2.5 goals	55%	35¢	+14.3%	$19.95	Placed	–
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	🇭🇷Croatia	68%	51¢	+11.4%	$29.58	Placed	–
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Both score	42%	27¢	+8.9%	$22.53	Placed	–
🇵🇦Panama vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Over 2.5 goals	56%	27¢	+23.0%	$29.16	Placed	–
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Over 1.5 goals	62%	45¢	+10.9%	$28.65	Placed	–
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	Both score	32%	20¢	+5.7%	$16.70	Placed	–
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	🇨🇴Colombia	65%	43¢	+15.6%	$24.94	Placed	–
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇨🇦Canada	Over 2.5 goals	43%	27¢	+10.3%	$21.98	Placed	–
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇨🇦Canada	Both score	37%	25¢	+6.4%	$11.25	Placed	–
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland vs 🇧🇷Brazil	Both score	52%	40¢	+5.9%	$15.20	Placed	–
🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇲🇽Mexico	Over 2.5 goals	50%	29¢	+14.6%	$31.30	Placed	–
🇿🇦South Africa vs 🇰🇷South Korea	Over 2.5 goals	42%	27¢	+8.9%	$24.66	Placed	–
🇨🇿Czech Republic vs 🇲🇽Mexico	Both score	38%	24¢	+7.8%	$14.64	Placed	–
🇪🇨Ecuador vs 🇩🇪Germany	🇩🇪Germany	55%	31¢	+17.8%	$36.58	Placed	–
🇨🇼Curacao vs 🇨🇮Ivory Coast	Over 3.5 goals	39%	23¢	+10.4%	$27.87	Placed	–
🇯🇵Japan vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 2.5 goals	54%	25¢	+23.0%	$34.75	Placed	–
🇯🇵Japan vs 🇸🇪Sweden	🇯🇵Japan	50%	39¢	+5.1%	$25.37	Placed	–
🇹🇷Turkey vs 🇺🇸United States	🇺🇸United States	41%	21¢	+14.2%	$19.11	Placed	–
🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇦🇺Australia	Over 0.5 goals	66%	50¢	+10.2%	$28.07	Placed	–
🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇦🇺Australia	🇵🇾Paraguay	32%	17¢	+11.3%	$16.79	Placed	–
🇳🇴Norway vs 🇫🇷France	🇳🇴Norway	16%	5¢	+6.9%	$6.70	Placed	–
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇪🇸Spain	Draw	55%	29¢	+20.2%	$20.59	Placed	–
🇨🇻Cape Verde vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Draw	59%	31¢	+21.5%	$20.15	Placed	–
🇨🇻Cape Verde vs 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	Over 2.5 goals	43%	25¢	+11.7%	$10.50	Placed	–
🇺🇾Uruguay vs 🇪🇸Spain	Over 2.5 goals	44%	31¢	+6.5%	$12.38	Placed	–
🇪🇬Egypt vs 🇮🇷Iran	🇮🇷Iran	41%	29¢	+5.8%	$8.99	Placed	–
🇳🇿New Zealand vs 🇧🇪Belgium	🇳🇿New Zealand	16%	6¢	+6.3%	$5.94	Placed	–
🇵🇦Panama vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	Draw	21%	11¢	+5.9%	$5.72	Placed	–
🇭🇷Croatia vs 🇬🇭Ghana	Draw	52%	33¢	+12.5%	$13.53	Placed	–
🇵🇦Panama vs 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	Over 2.5 goals	51%	30¢	+14.6%	$13.50	Placed	–
🇭🇷Croatia vs 🇬🇭Ghana	Over 1.5 goals	100%	85¢	+11.0%	$26.35	Placed	–
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇵🇹Portugal	🇨🇴Colombia	38%	26¢	+5.9%	$7.02	Placed	–
🇨🇩DR Congo vs 🇺🇿Uzbekistan	Draw	38%	25¢	+7.4%	$7.75	Placed	–
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇵🇹Portugal	Over 2.5 goals	55%	39¢	+10.1%	$10.53	Placed	–
🇩🇿Algeria vs 🇦🇹Austria	🇩🇿Algeria	44%	29¢	+9.4%	$8.12	Placed	–
🇯🇴Jordan vs 🇦🇷Argentina	Draw	35%	12¢	+18.8%	$9.36	Placed	–
🇿🇦South Africa vs 🇨🇦Canada	Draw	57%	32¢	+18.6%	$12.16	Placed	–
🇧🇷Brazil vs 🇯🇵Japan	Draw	43%	29¢	+7.8%	$5.80	Placed	–
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	Over 2.5 goals	54%	40¢	+7.9%	$6.40	Placed	–
🇩🇪Germany vs 🇵🇾Paraguay	Draw	63%	33¢	+24.5%	$12.21	Placed	–
🇳🇱Netherlands vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇲🇦Morocco	42%	29¢	+6.8%	$5.80	Placed	–
🇨🇮Ivory Coast vs 🇳🇴Norway	Draw	46%	32¢	+8.1%	$6.40	Placed	–
🇨🇮Ivory Coast vs 🇳🇴Norway	Over 2.5 goals	49%	34¢	+8.8%	$6.46	Placed	–
🇫🇷France vs 🇸🇪Sweden	Over 3.5 goals	47%	26¢	+14.7%	$9.10	Placed	–
🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇪🇨Ecuador	Draw	63%	36¢	+21.3%	$12.96	Placed	–
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England vs 🇨🇩DR Congo	🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	74%	48¢	+20.1%	$13.44	Placed	–
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇸🇳Senegal	Over 2.5 goals	70%	51¢	+12.6%	$11.22	Placed	–
🇧🇪Belgium vs 🇸🇳Senegal	🇸🇳Senegal	64%	49¢	+8.9%	$7.84	Placed	–
🇺🇸United States vs 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	Draw	51%	25¢	+20.3%	$11.00	Placed	–
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇦🇹Austria	Over 2.5 goals	56%	40¢	+9.9%	$7.20	Placed	–
🇪🇸Spain vs 🇦🇹Austria	🇪🇸Spain	98%	89¢	+5.4%	$16.02	Placed	–
🇵🇹Portugal vs 🇭🇷Croatia	Draw	43%	31¢	+6.4%	$5.27	Placed	–
🇨🇭Switzerland vs 🇩🇿Algeria	🇩🇿Algeria	39%	26¢	+7.2%	$5.20	Placed	–
🇦🇺Australia vs 🇪🇬Egypt	Draw	39%	25¢	+8.1%	$5.25	Placed	–
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Over 2.5 goals	59%	38¢	+15.0%	$11.02	Placed	–
🇦🇷Argentina vs 🇨🇻Cape Verde	Draw	100%	70¢	+24.0%	$18.20	Placed	–
🇨🇴Colombia vs 🇬🇭Ghana	🇨🇴Colombia	93%	84¢	+5.3%	$17.64	Placed	–
🇨🇦Canada vs 🇲🇦Morocco	🇨🇦Canada	45%	25¢	+14.3%	$8.75	Placed	–
🇵🇾Paraguay vs 🇫🇷France	Over 2.5 goals	53%	28¢	+18.7%	$10.36	Placed	–

Every placed Kalshi trade and its result. Our Prob is the model's blended probability at entry, Kalshi Prob the price we paid, Net Edge how much we beat the fee-adjusted price. Status: Placed (open), Won/Lost (settled), Void. The chips show each market's ROI and CLV (how much better than the close we got in). Net P&L is realized minus operating costs.

Model scorecard 64 graded

Accuracy 72% ±11% · always-favorite baseline 48% · Brier 0.433 (base-rate 0.623) · skill +30.4% · 6 pending

Sample is now large enough to start reading carefully. This tracks our pre-match win/draw/loss forecasts vs results. We change the model only on a real, significant signal — never on a hot or cold week.

Matches today

No matches today.

Upcoming matches

No scheduled matches available — add your API key to config.json and run the update.

Who wins the World Cup

Team	Rating	Model	Market
🇪🇸Spain	2101	23.1%	13.1%
🇫🇷France	2070	17.9%	35.4%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	2042	12.4%	7.6%
🇦🇷Argentina	2048	11.8%	15.7%
🇵🇹Portugal	2004	6.9%	6.0%
🇧🇷Brazil	1998	6.3%	6.6%
🇩🇪Germany	1970	3.9%	–
🇳🇱Netherlands	1962	3.5%	–
🇳🇴Norway	1928	1.8%	2.0%
🇧🇪Belgium	1912	1.7%	1.5%
🇨🇴Colombia	1914	1.5%	3.0%
🇹🇷Turkey	1910	1.4%	–

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Groups

Group A	GD	xPts	Advance
🇲🇽Mexico	+0	6.3	94.8%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	+0	4.5	80.4%
🇰🇷South Korea	+0	4.3	76.4%
🇿🇦South Africa	+0	1.6	21.2%

Group B	GD	xPts	Advance
🇨🇭Switzerland	+0	6.5	97.7%
🇨🇦Canada	+0	5.9	95.6%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	+0	3.6	69.1%
🇶🇦Qatar	+0	0.9	8.0%

Group C	GD	xPts	Advance
🇧🇷Brazil	+0	6.8	98.0%
🇲🇦Morocco	+0	5.1	89.3%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	+0	3.7	67.8%
🇭🇹Haiti	+0	1.2	13.6%

Group D	GD	xPts	Advance
🇹🇷Turkey	+0	5.5	88.5%
🇺🇸United States	+0	4.7	79.7%
🇵🇾Paraguay	+0	3.7	64.2%
🇦🇺Australia	+0	2.6	40.2%

Group E	GD	xPts	Advance
🇩🇪Germany	+0	6.5	98.2%
🇪🇨Ecuador	+0	5.7	95.8%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	+0	4.3	83.3%
🇨🇼Curacao	+0	0.5	3.6%

Group F	GD	xPts	Advance
🇳🇱Netherlands	+0	6.3	94.9%
🇯🇵Japan	+0	4.9	85.3%
🇸🇪Sweden	+0	3.9	70.2%
🇹🇳Tunisia	+0	1.6	21.3%

Group G	GD	xPts	Advance
🇧🇪Belgium	+0	7.1	98.1%
🇪🇬Egypt	+0	4.2	74.9%
🇮🇷Iran	+0	3.4	60.5%
🇳🇿New Zealand	+0	2.1	30.0%

Group H	GD	xPts	Advance
🇪🇸Spain	+0	8.0	99.9%
🇺🇾Uruguay	+0	5.6	94.5%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	+0	1.9	24.3%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	+0	1.7	20.6%

Group I	GD	xPts	Advance
🇫🇷France	+0	6.9	99.2%
🇳🇴Norway	+0	5.1	91.0%
🇸🇳Senegal	+0	4.5	85.8%
🇮🇶Iraq	+0	0.6	3.8%

Group J	GD	xPts	Advance
🇦🇷Argentina	+0	7.4	99.3%
🇦🇹Austria	+0	4.4	80.5%
🇩🇿Algeria	+0	3.9	73.5%
🇯🇴Jordan	+0	1.2	13.4%

Group K	GD	xPts	Advance
🇵🇹Portugal	+0	6.7	96.6%
🇨🇴Colombia	+0	5.5	90.3%
🇨🇩DR Congo	+0	2.4	38.8%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	+0	2.3	34.9%

Group L	GD	xPts	Advance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	+0	7.3	99.0%
🇭🇷Croatia	+0	5.5	92.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	+0	2.2	34.3%
🇵🇦Panama	+0	1.9	27.8%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

Team	Grp	Rating	Last 32	Last 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
🇪🇸Spain	H	2101	99.9%	80.9%	62.0%	49.7%	35.0%	23.1%
🇫🇷France	I	2070	99.2%	83.5%	62.1%	45.1%	31.0%	17.9%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England	L	2042	99.0%	79.1%	56.6%	36.6%	22.4%	12.4%
🇦🇷Argentina	J	2048	99.3%	68.6%	54.1%	37.2%	20.8%	11.8%
🇵🇹Portugal	K	2004	96.6%	71.7%	46.8%	27.3%	13.8%	6.9%
🇧🇷Brazil	C	1998	98.0%	67.0%	42.4%	24.0%	13.6%	6.3%
🇩🇪Germany	E	1970	98.2%	67.2%	34.4%	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%
🇳🇱Netherlands	F	1962	94.9%	57.0%	37.0%	17.7%	8.2%	3.5%
🇳🇴Norway	I	1928	91.0%	55.0%	28.3%	13.1%	4.9%	1.8%
🇧🇪Belgium	G	1912	98.1%	65.8%	35.7%	12.4%	4.8%	1.7%
🇨🇴Colombia	K	1914	90.3%	51.4%	23.9%	11.3%	4.3%	1.5%
🇹🇷Turkey	D	1910	88.5%	59.9%	29.7%	11.1%	4.2%	1.4%
🇭🇷Croatia	L	1897	92.0%	49.2%	20.6%	9.3%	3.5%	1.2%
🇪🇨Ecuador	E	1906	95.8%	52.7%	22.7%	10.1%	3.7%	1.2%
🇲🇽Mexico	A	1828	94.8%	55.5%	21.4%	7.6%	2.7%	0.8%
🇸🇳Senegal	I	1886	85.8%	45.6%	20.8%	7.8%	2.6%	0.8%
🇲🇦Morocco	C	1872	89.3%	41.6%	19.4%	7.2%	2.2%	0.6%
🇨🇭Switzerland	B	1875	97.7%	61.6%	25.7%	9.0%	2.4%	0.6%
🇺🇾Uruguay	H	1881	94.5%	35.6%	18.6%	7.8%	2.1%	0.6%
🇯🇵Japan	F	1868	85.3%	37.8%	17.9%	6.3%	1.8%	0.6%
🇺🇸United States	D	1803	79.7%	47.3%	18.7%	5.8%	1.7%	0.5%
🇨🇦Canada	B	1787	95.6%	54.3%	20.6%	6.3%	1.6%	0.4%
🇦🇹Austria	J	1823	80.5%	23.1%	9.4%	2.9%	0.7%	0.2%
🇸🇪Sweden	F	1800	70.2%	23.7%	7.8%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
🇵🇾Paraguay	D	1791	64.2%	29.9%	8.5%	2.1%	0.5%	0.1%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	E	1809	83.3%	32.4%	10.3%	2.7%	0.6%	<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech Republic	A	1759	80.4%	31.4%	7.8%	1.5%	0.3%	<0.1%
🇩🇿Algeria	J	1791	73.5%	18.6%	6.9%	1.8%	0.4%	<0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland	C	1773	67.8%	20.5%	6.2%	1.5%	0.3%	<0.1%
🇰🇷South Korea	A	1746	76.4%	27.5%	6.9%	1.0%	0.1%	<0.1%
🇿🇦South Africa	A	1552	21.2%	2.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇶🇦Qatar	B	1439	8.0%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina	B	1671	69.1%	17.8%	3.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇭🇹Haiti	C	1576	13.6%	1.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇦🇺Australia	D	1714	40.2%	13.6%	2.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇨🇼Curacao	E	1464	3.6%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇹🇳Tunisia	F	1632	21.3%	3.2%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇪🇬Egypt	G	1703	74.9%	22.1%	3.8%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇮🇷Iran	G	1648	60.5%	12.4%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
🇳🇿New Zealand	G	1548	30.0%	3.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde	H	1589	24.3%	2.4%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia	H	1567	20.6%	1.8%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇮🇶Iraq	I	1536	3.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇯🇴Jordan	J	1570	13.4%	1.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan	K	1689	34.9%	6.2%	1.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo	K	1696	38.8%	7.1%	1.5%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
🇬🇭Ghana	L	1660	34.3%	5.2%	0.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
🇵🇦Panama	L	1633	27.8%	3.6%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.