⚽ World Cup 2026 Forecast

Elo ratings + 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation · updated Friday, June 12 2026 at 9:46 AM

Best bets today $50 unit

No qualifying bets today — no matches with posted odds, or no edge clears the +2% threshold after shrinking the model toward the market.

Bet record settled bets only

Record 0–1 · staked $30 · net -30 · ROI -100.0% · 0 pending

KickoffMatchBetPriceStakeResultProfit
Jun 11, 10:00 PM🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech RepublicCzech Republic to win3.15$30LOSS-30

Matches today

Group stageJun 12, 3:00 PM
🇨🇦Canada
1.7 – 0.8projected goals
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina
Canada 59% · draw 24% · Bosnia and Herzegovina 17%total 2.5 goals
Group stageJun 12, 9:00 PM
🇺🇸United States
0.9 – 1.7projected goals
🇵🇾Paraguay
United States 21% · draw 24% · Paraguay 55%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: United States 47% · draw 29% · Paraguay 24%

Upcoming matches

Group stageJun 13, 3:00 PM
🇶🇦Qatar
0.8 – 4.0projected goals
🇨🇭Switzerland
Qatar 3% · draw 6% · Switzerland 90%total 4.7 goals
Bookmakers: Qatar 6% · draw 13% · Switzerland 81%
Group stageJun 13, 6:00 PM
🇧🇷Brazil
1.3 – 1.1projected goals
🇲🇦Morocco
Brazil 42% · draw 28% · Morocco 31%total 2.4 goals
Bookmakers: Brazil 59% · draw 24% · Morocco 16%
Group stageJun 13, 9:00 PM
🇭🇹Haiti
1.2 – 2.7projected goals
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland
Haiti 14% · draw 16% · Scotland 70%total 3.9 goals
Bookmakers: Haiti 15% · draw 22% · Scotland 63%
Group stageJun 14, 12:00 AM
🇦🇺Australia
1.5 – 1.5projected goals
🇹🇷Turkey
Australia 37% · draw 24% · Turkey 39%total 3.0 goals
Bookmakers: Australia 18% · draw 25% · Turkey 57%
Group stageJun 14, 1:00 PM
🇩🇪Germany
4.7 – 0.6projected goals
🇨🇼Curacao
Germany 95% · draw 3% · Curacao 2%total 5.3 goals
Bookmakers: Germany 95% · draw 4% · Curacao 1%
Group stageJun 14, 4:00 PM
🇳🇱Netherlands
1.3 – 1.4projected goals
🇯🇵Japan
Netherlands 35% · draw 25% · Japan 40%total 2.8 goals
Bookmakers: Netherlands 48% · draw 27% · Japan 25%
Group stageJun 14, 7:00 PM
🇨🇮Ivory Coast
0.6 – 1.1projected goals
🇪🇨Ecuador
Ivory Coast 20% · draw 33% · Ecuador 46%total 1.6 goals
Bookmakers: Ivory Coast 26% · draw 34% · Ecuador 40%
Group stageJun 14, 10:00 PM
🇸🇪Sweden
1.5 – 1.4projected goals
🇹🇳Tunisia
Sweden 41% · draw 24% · Tunisia 35%total 3.0 goals
Bookmakers: Sweden 51% · draw 27% · Tunisia 21%
Group stageJun 15, 12:00 PM
🇪🇸Spain
3.4 – 0.6projected goals
🇨🇻Cape Verde
Spain 88% · draw 8% · Cape Verde 4%total 4.0 goals
Bookmakers: Spain 91% · draw 7% · Cape Verde 2%
Group stageJun 15, 3:00 PM
🇧🇪Belgium
1.7 – 0.9projected goals
🇪🇬Egypt
Belgium 54% · draw 24% · Egypt 21%total 2.6 goals
Bookmakers: Belgium 60% · draw 24% · Egypt 16%
Group stageJun 15, 6:00 PM
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia
0.5 – 1.7projected goals
🇺🇾Uruguay
Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 22% · Uruguay 67%total 2.2 goals
Bookmakers: Saudi Arabia 11% · draw 21% · Uruguay 68%
Group stageJun 15, 9:00 PM
🇮🇷Iran
2.0 – 0.7projected goals
🇳🇿New Zealand
Iran 69% · draw 20% · New Zealand 12%total 2.7 goals
Bookmakers: Iran 53% · draw 27% · New Zealand 20%
Group stageJun 16, 3:00 PM
🇫🇷France
1.7 – 1.3projected goals
🇸🇳Senegal
France 48% · draw 24% · Senegal 28%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: France 66% · draw 21% · Senegal 13%
Group stageJun 16, 6:00 PM
🇮🇶Iraq
0.7 – 2.2projected goals
🇳🇴Norway
Iraq 11% · draw 18% · Norway 71%total 2.9 goals
Bookmakers: Iraq 6% · draw 12% · Norway 82%

Who wins the World Cup

TeamRatingModelMarket
🇪🇸Spain210123.1%15.9%
🇫🇷France207017.8%15.9%
🇦🇷Argentina204912.5%8.0%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England204311.7%11.0%
🇵🇹Portugal20046.7%10.0%
🇧🇷Brazil19995.9%8.4%
🇩🇪Germany19714.4%5.2%
🇳🇱Netherlands19623.4%4.4%
🇳🇴Norway19281.8%2.4%
🇧🇪Belgium19121.6%2.3%
🇹🇷Turkey19111.5%0.9%
🇨🇴Colombia19141.4%1.6%

Market = bookmaker consensus (margin removed). Where Model > Market the model is more bullish than the betting public, and vice versa.

Recent results

DateMatchScore
Jun 11, 10:00 PM🇰🇷South Korea vs 🇨🇿Czech Republic2–1
Jun 11, 3:00 PM🇲🇽Mexico vs 🇿🇦South Africa2–0

Groups

Group APWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇲🇽Mexico1100+236.799.1%
🇰🇷South Korea1100+136.195.9%
🇨🇿Czech Republic1001-103.064.1%
🇿🇦South Africa1001-201.315.2%
Group BPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇨🇭Switzerland0000+006.497.5%
🇨🇦Canada0000+005.995.4%
🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina0000+003.769.2%
🇶🇦Qatar0000+000.98.4%
Group CPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇷Brazil0000+006.898.0%
🇲🇦Morocco0000+005.188.8%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland0000+003.769.1%
🇭🇹Haiti0000+001.213.1%
Group DPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇹🇷Turkey0000+005.689.0%
🇺🇸United States0000+004.779.4%
🇵🇾Paraguay0000+003.764.6%
🇦🇺Australia0000+002.640.8%
Group EPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇩🇪Germany0000+006.598.4%
🇪🇨Ecuador0000+005.695.5%
🇨🇮Ivory Coast0000+004.484.2%
🇨🇼Curacao0000+000.53.4%
Group FPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇳🇱Netherlands0000+006.395.0%
🇯🇵Japan0000+004.984.8%
🇸🇪Sweden0000+003.970.5%
🇹🇳Tunisia0000+001.621.2%
Group GPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇧🇪Belgium0000+007.198.4%
🇪🇬Egypt0000+004.274.7%
🇮🇷Iran0000+003.460.1%
🇳🇿New Zealand0000+002.130.0%
Group HPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇪🇸Spain0000+008.099.9%
🇺🇾Uruguay0000+005.594.0%
🇨🇻Cape Verde0000+002.025.5%
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia0000+001.720.1%
Group IPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇫🇷France0000+006.999.0%
🇳🇴Norway0000+005.091.0%
🇸🇳Senegal0000+004.585.2%
🇮🇶Iraq0000+000.64.0%
Group JPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇦🇷Argentina0000+007.499.2%
🇦🇹Austria0000+004.481.1%
🇩🇿Algeria0000+004.073.6%
🇯🇴Jordan0000+001.213.2%
Group KPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🇵🇹Portugal0000+006.797.4%
🇨🇴Colombia0000+005.591.0%
🇨🇩DR Congo0000+002.436.6%
🇺🇿Uzbekistan0000+002.334.6%
Group LPWDLGDPtsxPtsAdvance
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England0000+007.399.1%
🇭🇷Croatia0000+005.591.8%
🇬🇭Ghana0000+002.234.4%
🇵🇦Panama0000+001.925.7%

Green edge = top two (advance) · gold edge = third place (8 of 12 thirds advance). xPts = expected final points.

Round-by-round odds all 48 teams

TeamGrpRatingLast 32Last 16QuartersSemisFinalChampion
🇪🇸SpainH210199.9%81.1%61.5%49.8%35.0%23.1%
🇫🇷FranceI207099.0%82.7%61.3%44.4%29.8%17.8%
🇦🇷ArgentinaJ204999.2%69.3%55.3%38.7%22.1%12.5%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿EnglandL204399.1%78.7%56.1%36.6%21.9%11.7%
🇵🇹PortugalK200497.4%72.1%47.2%27.5%13.8%6.7%
🇧🇷BrazilC199998.0%68.3%42.8%23.7%13.0%5.9%
🇩🇪GermanyE197198.4%67.5%34.2%19.9%9.5%4.4%
🇳🇱NetherlandsF196295.0%56.6%38.0%17.9%8.7%3.4%
🇳🇴NorwayI192891.0%54.5%28.6%13.8%5.1%1.8%
🇧🇪BelgiumG191298.4%66.6%36.3%12.3%4.8%1.6%
🇹🇷TurkeyD191189.0%59.6%29.3%11.3%4.1%1.5%
🇨🇴ColombiaK191491.0%52.3%24.6%11.2%4.2%1.4%
🇭🇷CroatiaL189791.8%48.7%19.7%9.0%3.6%1.3%
🇪🇨EcuadorE190695.5%53.6%23.0%10.3%3.9%1.3%
🇨🇭SwitzerlandB187597.5%62.1%25.0%8.4%2.5%0.9%
🇸🇳SenegalI188685.2%44.8%21.4%8.0%2.6%0.8%
🇲🇽MexicoA183299.1%57.6%22.2%8.2%3.0%0.8%
🇲🇦MoroccoC187288.8%41.2%19.8%6.6%2.3%0.6%
🇺🇾UruguayH188194.0%35.1%18.7%7.9%2.1%0.6%
🇯🇵JapanF186884.8%36.7%16.7%5.9%1.8%0.5%
🇺🇸United StatesD180379.4%47.0%17.6%5.6%1.4%0.4%
🇨🇦CanadaB178795.4%53.6%19.9%5.5%1.4%0.3%
🇦🇹AustriaJ182381.1%22.5%9.5%2.8%0.7%0.2%
🇨🇮Ivory CoastE181084.2%32.4%10.6%3.0%0.7%0.1%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿ScotlandC177369.1%20.3%6.1%1.2%0.3%<0.1%
🇵🇾ParaguayD179164.6%30.1%8.2%2.0%0.3%<0.1%
🇸🇪SwedenF180070.5%23.9%8.1%1.9%0.4%<0.1%
🇩🇿AlgeriaJ179173.6%18.2%6.7%1.9%0.3%<0.1%
🇰🇷South KoreaA176095.9%38.9%10.0%1.9%0.3%<0.1%
🇨🇿Czech RepublicA174564.1%20.8%5.8%1.0%0.2%<0.1%
🇿🇦South AfricaA154715.2%1.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇶🇦QatarB14388.4%0.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaB167169.2%18.5%3.1%0.4%<0.1%0.0%
🇭🇹HaitiC157613.1%1.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇦🇺AustraliaD171440.8%13.6%2.4%0.4%<0.1%0.0%
🇨🇼CuracaoE14633.4%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇹🇳TunisiaF163221.2%2.8%0.4%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇪🇬EgyptG170374.7%21.2%3.5%0.5%<0.1%0.0%
🇮🇷IranG164860.1%13.3%1.7%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇳🇿New ZealandG154830.0%3.0%0.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇨🇻Cape VerdeH158925.5%2.5%0.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaH156720.1%1.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇮🇶IraqI15364.0%0.4%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇯🇴JordanJ156913.2%1.2%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
🇺🇿UzbekistanK168934.6%6.0%0.9%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇨🇩DR CongoK169636.6%6.8%1.2%0.2%<0.1%0.0%
🇬🇭GhanaL166034.4%5.3%0.9%<0.1%0.0%0.0%
🇵🇦PanamaL163225.7%3.4%0.5%<0.1%0.0%0.0%

Model: team rating = 50% Elo (eloratings.net-style, K=60, +50 host bonus, updated after every result) + 50% squad market value (Transfermarkt, log-scaled). Ratings drive a log-linear Poisson goal model and the remaining tournament is simulated 10,000 times. Real results always override simulation. Third-place bracket slots are assigned randomly among FIFA-legal options until the real bracket is known.